FinalDick's Sporting Goods Park · Denver
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 37¢
Why Bench Boss likes it: Raw venue splits project 3.47 combined xG (Colorado home 1.61, Minnesota away 1.86); both sides average about 14 shots over the recent 10-match window.
Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-6 on this game · −32% return
- Total goals over 3.5+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, XI DeltaWhy 2 models like it
Bench Boss- Raw venue splits project 3.47 combined xG (Colorado home 1.61, Minnesota away 1.86); both sides average about 14 shots over the recent 10-match window.
- Personnel gate passed: both starting XIs are confirmed with 11 starters; each team has four rest days and no congestion flag.
- Most likely loss: Colorado's press controls territory without efficient finishing, leaving the game at 0, 3 goals.
XI Delta- Combined team xG-for rates are 3.47 per match; a Poisson-style projection puts four-plus goals near 46%.
- Last-five match totals averaged 3.2 for Colorado and 4.4 for Minnesota; Minnesota went over 3.5 in four of five.
- The 3.5 line needs four goals; Colorado cleared it in only two of its last five.
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates produce Colorado 1.57 and Minnesota 1.14 goals, for a 2.71 total.
- The warehouse Dixon-Coles pair is 1.84/0.96; its 2.79 total still implies roughly 47% under 2.5.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3 goals, under -114, while Kalshi offers the under side at 42¢.
- Zack Steffen's shoulder absence is established, but Colorado's current goalkeeper and XI are not confirmed this early.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado scoring read is 80%: geometric-mean λ 1.60 from 1.47 oppadj xGF and 1.76 Minnesota xGA; 9-match sample.
- Minnesota scoring read is 68%: geometric-mean λ 1.15 from 1.68 oppadj xGF and 0.79 Colorado xGA; 10-match sample.
- Pinnacle BTTS-NO was +138; own NO probability is 45.4% versus Kalshi's 41¢ price. Not a classic weak-attacker asymmetry.
- Both attacks exceed 1.4 oppadj xGF, so this is not a strong asymmetric BTTS-NO setup.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 29' with 0-0, time-scaled expected goals remaining are about 1.90; this supports roughly 70% under 2.5 before uncertainty discount.
- Pressing check: PPDA 9.78 / 13.75 and field tilt .571 / .554 suggest some transition heat, so this remains a lean rather than a recommendation.
- A goal before halftime materially damages the under; two additional goals from 0-0 lose the contract.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- LEAN. Own under-3.5 estimate is about 69%, versus the 64¢ Kalshi price; edge class PROJECTION.
- The xG-derived 2.80 total is only about 0.2 goals below the market-implied level; variance, not a huge model gap, drives this lean.
- Colorado Rapids spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opposition-adjusted inputs are Colorado xGF 1.47 / Minnesota xGA 1.69 and Minnesota xGF 1.68 / Colorado xGA 0.77; xG coverage is 9 and 10 matches.
- no independent sharp MLS handicap price was posted, so this is capped at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
Show all 7 picks
- Colorado Rapids−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair odds are approximately -135; 54¢ implies roughly +85 American before venue fees.
- Colorado's home form is 4-3-3 with 15 points; Minnesota's away form is 1-3-6 with 6 points.
- Model home expected goals are 1.84 versus 0.96 for Minnesota.
- The exchange fee reduces the raw 54¢ edge; net pricing is still close to the model threshold.
Questions
Who won Minnesota United vs. Colorado Rapids?
Colorado Rapids won 2-2 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.