FinalBMO Stadium · Los Angeles
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUST | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LOS | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLos Angeles FC spread NO 2.5 77¢
Why Handicap likes it: Dixon-Coles inputs are λH 1.44, λA 1.03, ρ -0.05; estimated LAFC margin ≥3 is 8.8%, so NO is 91.2%.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-8 on this game · −86% return
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates yield estimated λ_home 1.40 and λ_away 1.20; Poisson under 2.5 is about 52%.
- The warehouse model’s independent pair is 1.44/1.03, with model under-2.5 probability 55.1%.
- The monotone Kalshi ladder has 206 contracts traded on the 2.5 rung; Pinnacle’s sharp anchor is 3.25, under -120.
- Austin defender Mikkel Desler is questionable and lineups remain unconfirmed roughly 12 hours out.
- No Goal first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 3¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Late hazard correction +0.5 points: 76, 90 produced 368 goals versus 186 in 0, 15 across the 2026 fixture range.
- P(No Goal) from TOTAL ladder is 3.5%: 1 − the 96.5% Over 0.5-goals midpoint. FTTS No Goal is 2.5%; identity gap is only 1.0 point, so the projection supplies the edge.
- Pinnacle total is 3.2 at +102/-115, an independent sharp total anchor; FTTS mids sum to 100.0%.
- Model coverage is 10 xG matches per side; the correction is league-level timing evidence, not fixture-specific.
- Austin +1−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI attacking xG: Austin 2.24 versus Los Angeles FC 1.70, a +0.54 team-sheet delta.
- Austin starts Brandon Vazquez and Christian Ramirez, each at 0.33 xG/90; Facundo Torres adds 0.15 xG/90.
- Coverage passes: both XIs confirmed, 10-game XI-quality baselines, 10 known players, and xG on both sides.
- Most likely loss: Los Angeles FC wins by two or more; a one-goal loss may only push the +1 line.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-game opp-adjusted xG blend is 2.60 goals: LAFC 1.40 plus Austin 1.20.
- Poisson translation gives approximately 73.7% under 3.5; conservatively haircut to a 70% own win probability.
- Pinnacle under 3.5 -144 devigs to 57.1%; my model is roughly 12.9 percentage points higher.
- Only 10 games with xG for each side; this moderate MLS sample carries a wide error bar.
- Game total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas total 2.47; modeled under 3.5 probability is about 76%.
- Pinnacle's current 3.25 total leans under at -108 versus over -104, directionally confirming the projection despite the quarter-goal mismatch.
- The captured exchange under price fell roughly 4-5 points from opening, moving against this position.
- Los Angeles FC spread NO 2.5+30%Won
Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles inputs are λH 1.44, λA 1.03, ρ -0.05; estimated LAFC margin ≥3 is 8.8%, so NO is 91.2%.
- Pinnacle's -1.25 at -107 is not the same -2.5 rung, so it is not used as a sharp comparison.
- A high-output LAFC performance or an Austin defensive collapse can produce the required three-goal margin.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 days - Austin under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals total 2.47: LAFC 1.44, Austin 1.03.
- Recent venue form produced only 9 LAFC home goals in 10 matches; Austin allowed 15 away goals in 10.
- Son and Bouanga both start for LAFC, so attacking quality is stronger than a stale roster-change snapshot implies.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Austin scoring read: 70.5% from λ≈1.22, using Austin oppadj xGF 0.99 against LAFC xGA 1.45; 20 xG-backed matches.
- LAFC scoring read: 78.0% from λ≈1.52, using LAFC oppadj xGF 1.32 against Austin xGA 1.71; 20 xG-backed matches.
- Independent-score product gives BTTS YES≈55.0%, so the directional call is BTTS NO≈45.0%; this is a broadly symmetric case, not the asymmetric weak-attacker/elite-defense setup.
- Only about a 1-point advantage over the 44¢ NO price under the independent-score estimate; variance dominates.
Questions
Who won Austin vs. Los Angeles FC?
Los Angeles FC won 3-1 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.