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FinalStade Saputo · Montreal
Atlanta United
3–0Final
CF Montréal
Score by period
Team12T
AU213
CF000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5 61¢

Why Open Play likes it: Opp-adjusted xG blends to 2.37: Montréal 1.13/1.16, Atlanta 1.02/1.43 for/against.

Open PlayDown 12% this season · 124 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-15 on this game · −54% return

  1. Total goals under 2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsXI Delta, Long Tail Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    XI Delta
    • Poisson projection from covered xG rates gives 52.1% for 0-2 goals versus 39.1% implied by +156.
    • Estimated total xG is 2.59: Montréal 1.36, Atlanta 1.23, using both attack and opponent-allowance rates.
    • The xG sample is only nine matches and the Poisson independence assumption can be wrong.
    Long Tail Pairs
    • Tata Martino's official preview says recovery and rotation after playing four days apart will shape Atlanta's XI; that personnel-management read is confirmed, not guessed.
    • The matchup profile is low-output for Atlanta away: away_oppadj_xgdiff_per_match -0.41, while Montréal's home field tilt is 0.53 and Atlanta's is 0.45.
    • Most likely loss: Martino's stated push to play more directly creates an early transition or set-piece goal and the match reaches three.
  2. Under 2.5 Total Goals2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil Pairs
    • Opponent-adjusted xG is modest: Montréal 1.13 for / 1.16 against; Atlanta 1.02 for / 1.43 against.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; a late striker, goalkeeper, or tactical change could move the distribution before kickoff.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model makes Under 2.5 a 65.8% outcome from expected goals of 1.20 and 0.88.
    • Atlanta's away xGA is 1.49 and Montréal's non-penalty xG for is only 1.00 at home.
    • Montréal's last three head-to-head meetings average 3.67 total goals, all with both teams scoring.
  3. DrawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    xG Draw DeskDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.0% model draw probability versus 25.5% Pinnacle Shin-devigged draw probability: +5.5 points.
    • Opponent-adjusted projected xG is approximately Montréal 1.28 versus Atlanta 1.09, only 0.19 goals apart.
    • Confirmed XIs are closely rated: Montréal 6.83 versus Atlanta 6.85; starter attacking xG is 1.82 versus 1.51.
    • MLS has a 25.5% current-season draw rate but a high 3.26 average total-goal baseline.
  4. Match total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted rates imply 1.28 Montréal goals and 1.09 Atlanta goals; total 2.37.
    • The Kalshi total ladder is monotone; the 2.5 rung is traded with a two-cent spread.
    • Pinnacle provides a fresh sharp total anchor, satisfying the non-self-reference gate.
    • The opponent-adjusted sample is only nine or ten matches per side and could misstate current attacking strength.
  5. CF Montreal first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Lambdas are 1.20 home and 0.88 away; the raw home share among scored matches is 57.7%.
    • P(No Goal) is 12.6% from lambdas versus 4.5% from the Over 0.5 total ladder; the ladder calibrates the scoring state.
    • Pinnacle posts a 3.0-goal total at -108/-104, independently supporting the calibrated high-scoring state.
    • The 12.6% versus 4.5% No-Goal gap makes total-state calibration load-bearing.
  6. CF Montréal −1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
Show all 17 picks
  1. Draw (Tie)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle +140/+278/+184 devigs Montréal 40.3%, Draw 25.6%, Atlanta 34.1%; Kalshi is longer.
    • Dixon-Coles draw cross-check is 31.0%; both sides have four days rest, with home/away draw rates of 5/10 and 4/10.
    • Most likely loss: a modest venue/quality imbalance converts this low-total match into a 1-0 or 0-1 result.
  2. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG blends to 2.37: Montréal 1.13/1.16, Atlanta 1.02/1.43 for/against.
    • 10 and 9 xG-backed matches, zero friendlies; Poisson estimate puts under 3.5 near 78.5%.
    • The 10/9-match xG window is moderate rather than deep; Poisson tail risk is material.
  3. Atlanta United spread NO 1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Dixon-Coles lambdas are Montréal 1.20 and Atlanta 0.88; Atlanta 2+ goal win is about 9.1%, so NO is about 90.9%.
    • No same-rung sharp handicap reference; Pinnacle's −0.25 Asian line is not interchangeable with Kalshi's 1.5 rung.
  4. Total goals under 3.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
  5. Total Goals (Regular Time) over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed XI lookup refreshed at 3:49 PM; ProphetX over 3.5 remained 40¢ (+150) versus the 3:46 PM pre-lineup capture at 40¢.
    • Announced XI diverges from the prior team-change context: Miguel Almirón and Júnior Alonso start for Atlanta; Luca Petrasso starts for Montréal.
    • Confirmed XI attacking-quality totals are 1.51 Atlanta and 1.82 Montréal; xG coverage is live with 9 prior games and both teams covered.
    • The current XI-quality sample knows 8 Montréal slots and 9 Atlanta slots, so the lineup adjustment is not fully observed.
  6. Both teams to score
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes BTTS No 58.7%, versus an estimated 36¢ Kalshi NO purchase price from the live YES book.
    • The model projects only 1.20 home and 0.88 away expected goals.
    • Atlanta's recent away rolling average is 3.44 shots on target, and Montréal's opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.16.
    • BTTS is highly sensitive to one early goal or a penalty; soccer scoring variance is wide.
  7. CF Montréal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Montréal's home xG profile is 1.13 for and 1.16 against, while Atlanta's away xGA is 1.43.
    • Atlanta's away record is 4-3-3, but the model's home-win estimate remains above the contract price.
    • Model edge is modest and rests on only nine xG-covered matches for the thinner side.
  8. Both Teams To Score NO
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta United @ CF Montréal: Montréal scoring probability ≈73% from 1.13 oppadj xGF and Atlanta's 1.49 xGA; 10 xG matches.
    • Atlanta scoring probability ≈68% from 1.02 oppadj xGF and Montréal's 1.24 xGA; 9 xG matches.
    • Independent blended-xG read gives BTTS YES ≈49% and NO ≈51%; this is a roughly symmetric moderate-scoring case, not the asymmetric weak-attacker/elite-defense setup.
    • The 51% NO estimate uses a simple blended-xG/independence calculation; BTTS correlation and scoreline dependence can move it.
  9. Match total under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle posts a 3-goal total with under -103; context only, not placement.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; late attacking rotation could invalidate the current lambda estimate.
  10. Atlanta United spread NO 2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 95¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lambdas: Montréal 1.20, Atlanta 0.87; Poisson cross-check gives Atlanta margin ≥3 about 2.3%.
    • MLS sample: only 5 of 100 comparable matches had home-minus-away margin ≤−3; blend estimates NO near 96%.
    • Atlanta could produce a 3-goal road margin through red card, penalty, or finishing variance.
  11. CF Montréal to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model baseline: CF Montréal 42.7% win, draw 31.0%, Atlanta 26.3%; conservative lineup-adjusted estimate is 42.0%.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Montréal 1.13, 1.02, while Atlanta allows 1.43 away opponent-adjusted xGA.
    • Four days' rest for both teams and no fixture-congestion flag reduce scheduling noise.
    • Montréal's home venue form is only 2-2-6 with an 11-21 goal record.

Questions

Who won Atlanta United vs. CF Montréal?

Atlanta United won 3-0 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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