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FinalGEODIS Park
Sporting KC
0–4Final
Nashville SC
Score by period
Team12T
SK000
NASH314

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 3.5 Total Goals 52¢

Why Two Nil Pairs likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG: Nashville home 1.79 for / 1.30 against; Sporting KC away 1.59 for / 1.76.

Two Nil PairsDown 6% this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-11 on this game · −49% return

  1. Sporting KC spread +23 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsRegression Pairs, Long Tail Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Regression Pairs
    • The same board's 3.5 total plus Nashville -2 spread implies roughly 2.75-0.75; warehouse lambdas are 2.34-1.53, a materially narrower margin.
    • Warehouse process gives Nashville only a +0.80 expected-goal margin; Sporting KC gets a two-goal cushion before a loss.
    • The most likely loss is Nashville winning by 3 or more; the home side still owns a 349.5 Elo edge and the stronger form.
    Long Tail Pairs
    • Callaghan’s high press (11.97 PPDA, .584 field tilt) meets Zavagnin’s lower press (15.35) and Sporting’s .881 directness.
    • Confirmed XI: Sporting starts four defenders; Nashville starts Mukhtar, Saad and Surridge; no late personnel downgrade is assumed.
    • Most likely loss: Nashville’s press converts its 2.34 home lambda into a three-goal win; +2 loses beyond a two-goal margin.
    Deep Book
    • Fresh ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-14T16:51:34-07:00. One-leg LEAN ticket.
    • Most likely loss: Nashville wins by 3 or more; a two-goal Nashville win is a push, not a ticket win.
  2. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Open Play
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Nashville opp-adj xGF 1.79, xGA 1.30 (10 matches with xG); Sporting KC opp-adj xGF 1.59, xGA 1.76 (9).
    • Pinnacle posts an adjacent 3.75 total with Under -117; this supports the under direction but is not substituted for the Kalshi 3.5 rung.
    • Sporting KC has only 9 xG-covered matches, below the 12-match top-coverage tier; the 0.43-goal gap deserves restraint.
    Open Play
    • Opp-adjusted xG blend projects 3.22 goals: Nashville 1.78, Sporting KC 1.45.
    • Coverage is 10 Nashville and 9 Sporting KC xG games; the preferred opp-adjusted inputs reduce raw projection from 3.44.
    • Thin 9-10-game xG samples leave a wide error bar; raw xG still implies 3.44 goals.
  3. Both teams to score2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Both Nets
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Expected goals are 2.34 for Nashville and 1.53 for Sporting KC.
    • Nashville's home form: 24 goals scored and 8 conceded in 10 matches.
    • The model is Dixon-Coles and its features were computed through October 10, not today.
    Both Nets
      • The 20-game kickoff macro is less bullish than the feature window, making window sensitivity material and shrinking the estimated edge.
    • Total goals over 3.52 models agree
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsLong Tail Pairs, Deep Book
      Why 2 models like it
      Long Tail Pairs
      • Brian Joseph Callaghan II’s Nashville presses at 11.97 PPDA with .584 field tilt; Kerry Zavagnin’s Sporting is less aggressive at 15.35 PPDA, .439 tilt, and .881 directness.
      • The pace read is scheme-based rather than fatigue-based: both teams have four rest days and no congestion flag, so there is no invented rotation boost.
      • Most likely loss: the model’s 3.87-goal environment produces exactly three or fewer, such as 2-1 or 3-0.
      Deep Book
      • Fresh ProphetX board pull as_of_pt 2026-10-14T14:47:48-07:00. The qualifying fill is above the $300 gate; half-size LEAN ticket.
      • Most likely loss: regulation time finishes with 0-3 goals.
    • Sporting Kansas City first team to scoreLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

      First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
      Why it likes it
      • PIT lambdas are 2.34 Nashville and 1.53 Sporting Kansas City; calibrated away first-goal probability is 39.0%.
      • Pinnacle's 3.8 total and Kalshi Over 0.5 at 98.5% support a high-scoring match environment.
      • Goal hazard rises from 186 goals in minutes 0-15 to 368 in minutes 76-90; late-hazard correction is +0.2 points to the away share after total calibration.
      • Sporting Kansas City still loses whenever Nashville scores first or no team scores; the model gives Nashville the larger first-goal share.
    • Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 55 first-half and 90 second-half goals across 39 recent MLS fixtures: 37.9% first-half share.
      • Full ladder Poisson fit: 3.70 goals; measured split implies 1.40 first-half goals.
      • Clipped 1H ladder Poisson fit: 1.70; expected-goal violation is 0.30.
      • Recent split may be schedule-specific; MLS share can regress toward its broader baseline.
    Show all 10 picks
    1. Nashville SC spread NO 3.5Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; full xG coverage: Nashville 1.79 opp-adj xGF / 1.30 xGA over 10 matches, Sporting KC 1.59 / 1.76 over 9.
      • Live 1-0 at 14'; scaling the pregame lambdas (2.34 home, 1.53 away) over the remaining 76 minutes gives roughly 15% for a final Nashville margin of 4+.
      • The 2026 MLS distribution is concentrated at 0/1/2-goal differences: 25.5%/22.6%/12.9%; 4+ home margins are only 4.8% before this live score.
      • The live adjustment assumes pregame scoring rates persist; game state, tempo, substitutions, or an unrecorded card can materially change the remaining-goal distribution.
    2. Match total goals under 3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted rate blend sets Nashville at 1.78 and Sporting KC at 1.45 goals; total rate is 3.22.
      • A Poisson total at 3.22 gives under 3.5 about 59.8%, versus a 47c Kalshi NO price.
      • The model-rate check is materially higher at 2.34 home plus 1.53 away, making this a deliberately sized-down divergence play.
      • The warehouse model pair implies only about 45.9% for under 3.5, directly opposing the rate-blend estimate.
    3. Over 3.5 Total Goals
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG: Nashville home 1.79 for / 1.30 against; Sporting KC away 1.59 for / 1.76.
      • The ladder places Over 2.5 at 74.03¢ and Over 3.5 at 52.15¢; the latter implies roughly 3.78 goals, below the model total.
      • Any regular-time total of 0-3 loses; the venue's Under 3.5 is still 48.78¢.
    4. Match total over 3.5 goals
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • no verified Long Haul decay pillar; λ total is 3.87 (2.34 Nashville + 1.53 Sporting), implying approximately 54.2% over 3.5.
      • ProphetX over 2.5 is -285 and under 4.5 is -210, bracketing the model's elevated scoring baseline.
      • Single-leg lean only; this game has no open position in the current book and no parlay is needed.
      • Most likely loss path is 3 or fewer goals; the model-derived complement is approximately 45.8%.

    Questions

    Who won Sporting KC vs. Nashville SC?

    Nashville SC won 4-0 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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