FinalQ2 Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASH | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| AUST | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 0.5 1H goals scored 52¢
Why Half Light likes it: The clean three-rung 1H ladder fits a Poisson mean of 0.71 goals from 0.52, 0.15, and 0.04.
Half LightDown 7% this season · 135 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-6 on this game · −30% return
- Match total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model rate pair is Austin 0.96 and Nashville 1.65, total 2.61.
- Poisson conversion of that rate pair gives 26.5% for 0 or 1 goal.
- The full Kalshi total ladder is monotone; the 1.5 rung has 151.23 contracts traded, unlike the untraded first-goal board.
- Austin and Nashville lineups are not confirmed 12 hours out; the Nashville report does not explicitly enumerate its leading scorer or goalkeeper.
- Austin to win−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI moves the matchup toward Austin: current starter attacking xG 2.36 versus 2.04 usual-XI baseline (+0.33).
- Nashville's confirmed XI is 1.79 versus its 2.20 usual-XI baseline (-0.41); combined team-sheet delta is +0.73 toward Austin.
- Facundo Torres starts for Austin (7.15 rating, 0.15 xG/90); both XIs are confirmed and coverage has xG plus 10 prior XI samples.
- Aggregate XI attacking-xG deltas are noisy and are not a calibrated match-win model.
- Over 0.5 1H goals scored+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The clean three-rung 1H ladder fits a Poisson mean of 0.71 goals from 0.52, 0.15, and 0.04.
- MLS sample: 183 of 435 goals before today came in the first half; measured share is 0.42 across 135 fixtures.
- The 0.27-goal split violation clears the RECOMMENDED threshold; the furthest rung is Over 0.5 1H, about 11.2 probability points low.
- The match is live at 0-0 in the 24th minute; the pre-match split reconciliation does not fully model elapsed time.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG build: Austin 1.20 plus Nashville 1.56 equals 2.77 expected goals.
- Poisson translation of 2.77 gives about 70% under 3.5; 10 xG-backed matches support each estimate.
- Mixed pressing tilt, Austin PPDA 15.52/field tilt .417, Nashville 11.62/.562, offers no bilateral high-press boost.
- MLS transition variance and an early goal can create the fourth goal quickly.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is 2.77 goals versus approximately 2.90 from the Kalshi ladder; direction favors under 3.5.
- An early goal, penalty, or set-piece sequence can turn a three-goal match into four.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Austin scoring read 69% (0.98 xGF vs Nashville 1.40 xGA; 10/10 xG matches); Nashville reads 81% (1.69 vs Austin 1.62; 10/10).
- Asymmetric case: Nashville is the stronger attacker; BTTS-NO mainly needs Austin's 31% fail-to-score probability to hold.
- Per-side Poisson-style combination gives 56.2% BTTS-YES and 43.8% BTTS-NO; the direction is coherent with NO, but the edge is thin.
- Nashville's 1.40 xG-against read still gives Austin a credible scoring route; one Austin goal loses the contract.
Show all 8 picks
- Austin +1 regular-time spread−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- lambdas 1.07 Austin, 1.80 Nashville imply approximately 70% Austin +1 win probability, with a one-goal loss pushing.
- Pinnacle's nearby Austin +0.75 is -114; that is context, not the exact placement contract.
- Most likely loss: Nashville wins by two or more; a one-goal Nashville win pushes rather than wins.
- Nashville SC spread over 1.5+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Austin 1.07 and Nashville 1.80; Nashville margin ≥2 models at 30.8%.
- MLS 2026 sample: 103 draws, 162 one-goal margins, 83 two-goal margins, and 59 3+ margins in 407 matches.
- no independent sharp +1.5 rung was posted; Pinnacle’s -0.5 line is not interchangeable.
Questions
Who won Nashville SC vs. Austin?
Nashville SC won 4-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.