FinalChildren's Mercy Park · Kansas City
Portland Timbers
3–3Final
Sporting KC
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| SK | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal Goals over 4.5 33¢
Why Deep Book likes it: ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T14:50:53-07:00. Price band and $300 availability gate pass.
Deep BookDown 7% this season · 971 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-6 on this game · −57% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection edge: 3.12 expected goals versus a market-implied 3.5-goal threshold; tempo is only a modest over nudge (PPDA 16.04 Sporting KC, 14.94 Portland; proxy flags).
- The minimum xG sample is only 9 matches, below the preferred 12-game tier; both opponent-adjusted estimates remain uncertain.
- Sporting Kansas City first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas are Sporting KC 1.81 and Portland 1.71; constant-hazard Sporting KC first is 49.9%.
- Measured MLS 2026 goal counts rise from 138 in 0-15 to 261 in 76-90; apply +0.4 point late tilt, 50.3% estimate.
- Kalshi Sporting Kansas City is 45c; model edge is 5.8 probability points.
- No Goal identity is not a trade: model 3.0% versus 2.5% from Kalshi Over 0.5, only a 0.5-point gap.
- Portland Timbers to win0%Push
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pre-lineup capture was 57.26¢ at 4:56:42 PM PDT; the confirmed XI posted at 4:58:51, and the current board remains 57.26¢.
- Portland's confirmed XI rates 2.46 attacking xG versus Sporting KC's 1.90, a +0.56 team-sheet attacking gap.
- Sporting KC loses Dejan Joveljić from its XI; he logged 10 club starts and 0.30 xG/90 before the absence.
- Portland also loses Finn Surman, a 10-start defender rated 6.88, so the lineup adjustment is not one-sided.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full ladder mean is 3.57 goals; the measured split implies a 1H mean of 1.37.
- The 1H three-rung Poisson fit is 1.66; P(1H over 1.5) reconciles to 39.9%, below Kalshi's 49.5% YES mid.
- The split mismatch is 0.29 expected goals, clearing the RECOMMENDED threshold; 1H is the larger ladder adjustment.
- Twenty fixtures is a limited league-share sample; the 38.5% split can regress.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 1-0 in the 20th minute, scaled remaining expectation yields about 3.35 final goals; fair under 3.5: 58%.
- The match is live at 1-0 around 20'; an early second goal materially damages the under.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sporting KC scoring read 79.4% from 1.33 home oppadj xGF and 1.83 Portland oppadj xGA; Portland read 78.6% from 1.27 away oppadj xGF and 1.81 Sporting KC oppadj xGA.
- Symmetric case: both attacks face leaky defenses, but the independent product still gives BTTS-YES 62.4% and BTTS-NO 37.6%.
- Dixon-Coles is 6.5 points more bullish on BTTS-YES than this read; a wider disagreement would invalidate the projection.
Show all 8 picks
- Sporting KC to win−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Novig
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 7.6-point model-versus-price gap is materially larger than the FanDuel alternative.
- Model expected goals favor Sporting KC 1.81 to 1.71 despite the market's away-team lean.
- Sporting KC's 1-1-8 overall home form is a major warning sign.
- Total Goals over 4.5+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T14:50:53-07:00. Price band and $300 availability gate pass.
- Five goals are required. The 3.52 model mean does not directly establish over 4.5 value.
Questions
Who won Portland Timbers vs. Sporting KC?
Sporting KC won 3-3 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.