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Pelicans vs. NuggetsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBall Arena · Denver
Pelicans
135–141Final
Nuggets
Score by period
Team12345T
NOP383535189135
DEN2433323715141

Top model pick, graded

Won

DeMar DeRozan under 15 points 47¢

Why Blowout Minutes likes it: Denver over 12.5 is 44.5% on Kalshi, making a 15+ margin and starter-minute reduction materially likely.

Blowout MinutesUp 10% return this season · 56 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-25 on this game · −76% return

  1. Denver Nuggets −11.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsAltitude Ledger, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Altitude Ledger
    • Model probability 57%; Denver fair margin about 15.1 after +2.5 home court and a capped 3-point altitude/zero-rest penalty.
    • Denver's 2025 net rating was +5.05 versus New Orleans -4.51; Pelicans played at Utah on Friday and travel to Denver for a back-to-back.
    • Both lineups are expected, not confirmed; Yves Missi is questionable and a late scratch or minutes change could erase the travel edge.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Polymarket US offers the matching Nuggets -11.5 contract at a 49c buyer cost; global mark is 48.5c.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed, and early-season samples are tiny: Pelicans 0-2, Nuggets 0-1.
    Rest Ledger
    • Schedule: New Orleans has 0 rest days after playing at Utah Friday; Denver has 1 rest day after Oklahoma City Thursday.
    • The exchange ladder is coherent around this rung: Nuggets -11.5 costs 49¢, with the adjacent Pelicans +10.5/+12.5 rungs at 48¢/55¢.
    • Denver has only 1 rest day, not the stronger 2-plus-day asymmetry; the fatigue premium may be overstated.
  2. Denver Nuggets −112 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBench Boss, Road Trip Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • New Orleans’ core played 33.0, 31.5 and 30.2 minutes Friday; the second night of the back-to-back should shorten Mosley’s rotation.
    • Denver has two rest days since its 84-point loss, giving Adelman a fresher closing group against a tired Pelicans first unit.
    • Most likely loss: Denver’s offense repeats its 84-point opener, allowing New Orleans to stay inside the number or backdoor late.
    Road Trip Ledger
    • New Orleans played at Utah on 10/23 and now faces a back-to-back plus Utah-to-Denver altitude/time-zone travel; Denver has one rest day after OKC.
    • New Orleans is on road-trip game 2; its 2025 road-trip game-2 sample was 3-11 with -2.7 average net rating, versus Denver's 2025 game-1-to-3 road samples of +4.5, +5.2, and +5.6.
    • Cash likelihood is only about 55%; the early-season trip samples are small and not a clean causal travel study.
  3. Game total under 239.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBench Boss, Pace Mismatch
    Why 2 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • Denver’s last five pace sample averaged 99.9 possessions; four games were between 94.7 and 106.2.
    • Denver’s last five games averaged 224.6 combined points; New Orleans’ last six averaged 227.5.
    • Most likely loss: Denver’s 84-point opener rebounds sharply behind rested home starters.
    Pace Mismatch
    • Projected total ~223 points: Denver's last-six pace 99.5, New Orleans' 105.8.
    • Efficiency blend produces roughly 110 points per side at approximately 101, 102 possessions.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Denver has two non-starter questionables unresolved.
  4. Denver Nuggets spread −11.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsThird in Four, Back-to-Back Debt
    Why 2 models like it
    Third in Four
    • Pelicans are in their third game in four nights: Oct. 21, Oct. 23 and Oct. 24.
    • New Orleans traveled home-to-Utah-to-Denver; Denver had a full day off after its Oct. 22 game.
    • Pelicans' lineup is still projected rather than confirmed roughly 10 hours before tip; Missi's status could alter the matchup.
    Back-to-Back Debt
    • New Orleans plays the second night of a back-to-back after Friday; Denver last played Thursday and is rested.
    • Last-season Pelicans back-to-back/3-in-4 composite: 7-20, -5.4 net over 27 games; current season has zero such games.
    • Zero current-season back-to-back/3-in-4 sample; the 27-game prior composite mixes two fatigue categories and is noisy.
  5. Denver Nuggets spread −112 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsShort Bench, Rest Edge Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Short Bench
    • Schedule gate: nba_team_schedule_to_date shows Denver last played 10/22 and New Orleans 10/23; for tonight, Denver is not on a back-to-back with 1 intervening rest day, while New Orleans is on a back-to-back with 0.
    • Pace supports Denver dictating the game: Denver is 94.7 season/L10 pace versus New Orleans at 105.6; the slower home profile is the tempo anchor.
    • New Orleans had the deeper prior-game rotation, 9 players at 15+ minutes versus Denver's 7; that can blunt the back-to-back penalty.
    Rest Edge Pairs
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, New Orleans played 10/23 at Utah; Denver has the rest and home-altitude advantage.
    • Denver's expected starting five is intact; listed absences are depth pieces, while only Yves Missi is questionable for New Orleans.
    • Missi remains questionable and both lineups are projected, not confirmed; a late status change could move the matchup.
  6. Game total under 239.5 points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsShot Clock, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Shot Clock
    • New Orleans' 105.6 pace is the faster current-season signal versus Denver's 94.7; NOP is the likely tempo dictator.
    • Current pace-times-efficiency read: about 209 total points, NOP attack 113.2 versus DEN defense 101.4; DEN attack 88.7 versus NOP defense 115.1.
    • Only one Denver and two New Orleans regular-season games make the pace and efficiency sample extremely thin.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 239.5 is well above the current form baseline: Denver has scored 84 in its only game and New Orleans has allowed 121.5 per game.
    • The current-season efficiency snapshot implies roughly 209 combined points at blended team pace, even before regression toward league average.
    • Denver's one-game sample is extremely noisy; an offensive rebound from 84 points could erase much of the modeled gap.
Show all 21 picks
  1. DeMar DeRozan under 15 pointsHigh conviction
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver over 12.5 is 44.5% on Kalshi, making a 15+ margin and starter-minute reduction materially likely.
    • DeRozan averaged 21.3 minutes and 9.0 points in five recent 15+ point games, going under 15 in all five.
    • In closer games he averaged 17.9 points and went under 15 eight of 15 times; the blowout-weighted estimate is roughly 74%.
    • The projected lineup is expected, not confirmed, so a late Denver scratch could reduce the blowout and truncation case.
  2. Nikola Jokic under 30 pointsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver’s spread ladder centers near a 10.5, 11.5-point margin; Denver over 12.5 is 44.5%, above the 30% truncation gate.
    • Jokić stayed under 30 in 18 of his last 20 games, including 15 of 15 non-blowouts.
    • The 15+ margin subset was under 30 in 3 of 5; the blowout mixture estimates roughly an 82% under probability.
    • The projected Denver starters are expected rather than officially confirmed, and no formal Jokić minutes plan is listed.
  3. New Orleans Pelicans to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season efficiency leans New Orleans: -2.0 point differential over two games versus Denver's -12.0 over one.
    • Projected starting fives are not confirmed; Denver's Alpha Diallo remains questionable near tip.
  4. Denver Nuggets −13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Latest completed-season blend: Denver net +7.6 versus New Orleans -7.4; home court and rest project roughly a 17.5-point Denver margin.
    • With 12-point NBA margin standard deviation, Denver -13.5 is a 63.0% fair number.
    • Denver last played October 22; New Orleans last played October 23, giving Denver the modest rest edge.
    • The current 2026-27 sample is tiny, Denver has one regular-season game and New Orleans two, so prior-season weighting is uncertain.
  5. Game total under 237.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total around 224-225 from a 102.6-possession blend and matchup efficiency.
    • Denver's six-game pace averages 99.5 possessions; New Orleans averages 105.8, below a shootout profile.
    • Six-game offensive/defensive blend produces roughly 109 points per 100 possessions for each side before conservative early-season adjustment.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Yves Missi and two Denver reserves remain questionable.
  6. Zion Williamson over 18.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • In 7 Missi-out games, Williamson averaged 25.0 points, 32.13 minutes, and 16.86 FGA versus 20.56, 29.50, and 12.58 with Missi.
    • True shooting was nearly stable: 64.0% without Missi versus 64.7% with him.
    • DraftKings -105 is the best eligible-book price; my role-adjusted win estimate is 55%.
    • Only 7 absence games, mostly from last season, with roster and coaching changes limiting comparability.
  7. Over 239.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Price CapUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended pace/ratings estimate centers total around 223, 226 points.
    • Rest-adjusted offense projection is below the 239.5 market line; New Orleans played the previous night.
    • Sportsbook total is 239.5 and Polymarket is near 52% over, cross-checking the posted line.
    • Both starting groups are expected, not officially confirmed; final injury news could materially alter the projection.
  8. Jeremiah Fears over 1.5 three-pointers madeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair probability is 58% on the same 1.5 line, a 27-point gap.
    • Fears' last 10 active games produced 6.61 three-point attempts per 36; he is an expected starter after averaging 23.73 and 20.93 minutes in his last two.
    • Denver allowed 43 opponent three-point attempts in its latest game, 45.4 per 100 possessions versus 35.1 league-wide.
    • Fears is a rookie and the last-10 sample mixes a small current-season sample with prior-season games.
  9. Trey Murphy III over 2.5 three-pointers made
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair probability is 61% on the same 2.5 line, a 14-point gap.
    • Murphy's last 10 active games produced 7.85 three-point attempts per 36; his last two minutes were 31.45 and 31.55.
    • Denver allowed 43 opponent threes attempts in its latest game: 45.4 per 100 possessions versus a 35.1 current-league rate.
    • The starting lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed; the 31-minute projection is inferred from recent starter minutes.
  10. New Orleans Pelicans under 239.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pelicans played 10/23; Denver last played 10/22, creating a clear New Orleans back-to-back tax versus one rest day.
    • 2025 regular-season combined scoring baseline was 230.8 points (Denver 119.5, New Orleans 111.3), 8.7 below 239.5 before the extra fatigue adjustment.
    • Current regular-season efficiency is slow for Denver: 88.7 offensive rating and 94.7 possessions in its one completed game; New Orleans is coming off 105.6 possessions across two games.
    • The 2026 regular-season sample is extremely thin: one Denver game and two New Orleans games, so the efficiency signal is noisy.
  11. New Orleans Pelicans +9
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices New Orleans +9 at 42.74¢ (+134 American), about 3.1 probability points below that internally implied cover curve.
    • The full game ladder was refreshed, and the +8.5/+9/+9.5 neighborhood remained monotone; the +9 quote repeated on the final link read.
    • Expected rather than confirmed starters; late lineup news could explain or erase the seam.
  12. Game total under 233.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 232.1, 7.4 points below the 239.5 sharp-book main line.
    • Denver home 25-game offense/pace: 118.7 ORTG, 100.1 possessions; half-shrunk: 115.8 and 101.1.
    • New Orleans road 25-game offense/pace: 112.6 ORTG, 102.0 possessions; half-shrunk: 112.7 and 102.1.
    • Lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed five hours before tip.
  13. Game under 239.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season scoring averages totaled 237.6 points; the conservative season-adjusted efficiency blend projects roughly 235 points.
    • Current pace/efficiency is not supporting the higher number: Denver posted 84 points and 94.7 possessions in its one game; New Orleans is at 105.6 possessions through two.
    • Denver's 84-point opener is a one-game outlier; Nikola Jokic's offense can normalize sharply upward.
  14. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +30300

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas is on a second-night back-to-back and 3-in-4; San Antonio is on a back-to-back only.
    • New Orleans played Oct. 21 and Oct. 23; Denver last played Oct. 22, creating the cleaner rest edge.
    • Both spread numbers held from opening: Spurs -12.5 and Nuggets -11.5; the board has not advanced against the schedule reads.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups leave late status risk despite no unresolved key status on either favored side.
  15. Game total under 242.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended pace/efficiency read centers near 230, 231 points, 11+ below 242.5.
    • Denver’s six-game pace is 99.5; New Orleans is 105.8, below the 239.5 main number.
    • Rest mechanism: New Orleans is on a back-to-back and enters a third game in four days after Utah.
    • Only six current-season games; the prior-season blend is required and caps this at LEAN.

Questions

Who won Pelicans vs. Nuggets?

The Nuggets won 141–135 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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