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Colts vs. JaguarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalEverBank Stadium
Colts2–5
7–42Final
Jaguars4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
IND00707
JAX72114042

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jacksonville Jaguars to win −485

Why +EV Volume Handicapper likes it: Jacksonville leads pregame home EPA/play 0.0999 to Indianapolis -0.0266; defense is -0.0606 versus +0.0020.

+EV Volume HandicapperDown 9% this season · 256 picks
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How the picks did

53 picks from 40 models

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars to winFavorite4 models agreeHigh conviction
    1.21x83¢

    +21% profit if it wins

    4 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Drift +2
    Why 4 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Jacksonville leads pregame home EPA/play 0.0999 to Indianapolis -0.0266; defense is -0.0606 versus +0.0020.
    • Jaguars lead success rate 51.0% to 47.2%, explosive rate 13.9% to 8.1%, and points per drive 2.67 to 2.05.
    • Jacksonville's heavy -485 price leaves little payout room; one turnover-heavy upset can erase the edge.
    Drift
    • 2026 regular-season efficiency favors Jacksonville: +0.0999 offensive EPA/play, -0.0606 defensive EPA/play, 51.0% success and 13.9% explosive rate versus Indianapolis at -0.0266, -0.0020, 47.2% and 8.1%.
    • Personnel gate is resolved: Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence are confirmed starting quarterbacks; Jacksonville also has 14 rest days versus Indianapolis's 7.
    • Most likely loss: an Indianapolis turnover or explosive-play swing overwhelms Jacksonville's efficiency and rest edges.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Pressure handling favors Jacksonville: Lawrence pressure EPA -0.33 and 15.9% pressure-to-sack vs Jones -0.51 and 18.1%.
    • Team feature edge: Jacksonville +0.0999 offensive EPA/play and -0.0606 defensive EPA/play to Indianapolis -0.0266 and -0.0020.
    • Jacksonville's offensive line grades below Indianapolis's (59.7 vs 67.4); protection could erase the quarterback edge.
    NFL baby
    • Jaguars +0.0999 offensive EPA/play versus Colts -0.0266; defensive EPA allowed -0.0606 versus -0.0020.
    • Moneyline public bets reportedly favor Jacksonville 90%; DraftKings held -485 while Pinnacle softened from -478 to -473.
    • Jacksonville is crowded at 87% reported handle; adverse sharp information can be meaningful.
  2. Tyler Warren over 4.5 receptions3 models agree
    1.83x55¢

    +83% profit if it wins

    3 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Confirmed starter at 8:36 AM PT after a two-game absence; availability is no longer unresolved.
    • Warren averaged 7.2 targets and 6.0 receptions across five 2026 games; 30 catches on 36 targets.
    • The recent sample is only five active games, with results of 7, 5, 9, 6, and 3 receptions.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 6.0 season receptions per game (30 in 5); over 4.5 in all five games played.
    • 36 targets in five games (7.2 per game) with 1.30 PFF yards per route run.
    • Warren returns from a groin injury after two missed games; re-injury or conditioning risk remains.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • 4/5 L5, 6/10 L10, and 4/5 in 2026 cleared 4.5 receptions.
    • Warren averages 6.0 receptions over L5, 33% above the 4.5 line.
    • Only two comparable Jaguars meetings exist: five receptions and two, so H2H is thin and 50% over.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −10.52 models agree
    2.08x48¢

    +108% profit if it wins

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Key Number
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • The exact-NFL monthly performance read was still loading, so recent deterioration is unknown; confidence is capped at medium.
      Key Number
      • Pinnacle main spread is Jacksonville -10.5 +102 / Indianapolis +10.5 -113; devigged Jacksonville cover probability is 48.3%.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville wins by 10 or fewer; this half-point contract has no push protection.
    • Indianapolis Colts +10.52 models agree
      1.82x55¢

      +82% profit if it wins

      2 modelsNFL Luck Regression, CLV Sharp ATS
      Why 2 models like it
      NFL Luck Regression
      • Luck Score: Colts -0.939 vs Jaguars +0.217; Luck Difference -1.157 exceeds the 0.50 trigger.
      • Primary Luck: Colts -0.699 vs Jaguars +0.270; difference -0.969 exceeds the 0.20 trigger.
      • Six-to-seven games is an early-season sample; one-score samples are only four games per team.
      CLV Sharp ATS
      • FanDuel -118 offers +10.5 while the consensus spread is Jacksonville -10.0, crossing the key 10 by 0.5.
      • Model projects Jacksonville by roughly 3.5 points from net EPA and opponent-adjusted success, 6.5 points below consensus.
      • Both quarterbacks are expected, not officially confirmed active at 5:00 AM; inactives are not posted yet.
    • Game first-half total under 23.52 models agree
      1.92x52¢

      +92% profit if it wins

      2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)
      Why 2 models like it
      Locker Room
      • Model allocates the 46.5 full-game anchor below evenly: a modest second-half scoring bump puts 1H expectation near 22.5–23.0.
      • JAX and IND run at 31.91 and 30.79 seconds per play; neither profile signals an extreme first-half pace.
      • The warehouse has no first-half-specific total histogram; the full-game distribution is only a directional prior.
      Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)
      • Model baseline: 46.5 full-game total × 47–49% gives 21.9–22.8 first-half points.
      • Recent first-half totals averaged 22.0 for Indianapolis and 20.3 for Jacksonville across the latest six games.
      • A fast Jacksonville start or short-field turnover can clear 24 before halftime.
    • Josh Downs over 32.5 receiving yards2 models agree
      1.88x53¢

      +88% profit if it wins

      2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, NFL Regression Radar
      Why 2 models like it
      NFL Usage Adventure
      • 85.1% snap share and 38.7 routes per game over his last three.
      • Six targets per game recently, with a confirmed starting role.
      • Downs averaged only 35 receiving yards across the last three, including 18 last week.
      NFL Regression Radar
      • 83.1% average offensive snap share over the last four games; confirmed starter.
      • 5.5 targets per game multiplied by his 6.67 season yards-per-target rate projects 36.7 yards.
      • The four-game sample went over this line only twice; receiving-yard variance remains substantial.
    Show all 39 picks
    1. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −102 models agree
      1.96x51¢

      +96% profit if it wins

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Jacksonville's +0.0999 offensive EPA/play against Indianapolis's -0.002 defensive EPA/play is the clearest matchup edge; current form covers six recent games.
      • Indianapolis offense is -0.0266 EPA/play against Jacksonville's -0.0606 defensive EPA/play, pointing to a difficult scoring and margin path for the Colts.
      • Most likely loss: Indianapolis stays within ten through red-zone variance, late scores, or a turnover swing despite Jacksonville's efficiency edge.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Jacksonville leads Indianapolis by 0.1265 EPA/play on offense, 0.0586 on defensive EPA allowed, and 0.0379 in success rate.
      • Pinnacle's captured spread is Jacksonville -10.5 at +100; context only, while this projection supports the main -10.
      • Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence are expected, not confirmed; game-day inactives are not posted.
    2. Indianapolis Colts to winLong shot2 models agree
      5.00x20¢

      +400% profit if it wins

      2 modelsMorning Ledger, Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
      Why 2 models like it
      Morning Ledger
      • Pinnacle's current reference is Jacksonville -471 / Indianapolis +370, pulled at 3:57 AM PT.
      • Polymarket US is slightly better than the captured FanDuel +400 reference for the same Colts outcome.
      • Jacksonville remains a strong 79.5% sharp-market favorite; Indianapolis must win outright.
      Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
      • Historical 247-game calibration for a +0.05 to +0.10 home net-EPA edge gives the home side 55.1%; current edge is +0.0679.
      • Trench matchup favors Indianapolis: +10.8 pressure-rate points, or +36.1% relative, using 79 generated pressures against Jacksonville's 58 allowed.
      • Jacksonville leads current efficiency: net EPA +0.0393 versus Indianapolis -0.0286, with 4-2 versus 2-5 records and a 79.2 versus 70.6 team-grade edge.
    3. Game total under 46.52 models agree
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      2 modelsPigskin Pete, Resting Money
      Why 2 models like it
      Pigskin Pete
      • Combined pace profile is 62.70 seconds per play; neither offense projects as a tempo driver.
      • Last-six game totals average 45.0 for Indianapolis and 43.0 for Jacksonville.
      • The 46.5 under is only modestly below the Pinnacle-derived 50.9% fair probability; the edge relies on weather and matchup adjustment.
      Resting Money
      • Directional coherence: backing under 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches.
      • Venue self-reference only: ProphetX's own ladder is the primary and only reference for this read.
    4. Jonathan Taylor over 13.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
      1.78x56¢

      +78% profit if it wins

      2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
      Why 2 models like it
      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
      • 20.0 season rushing attempts per game (140 in 7); over 13.5 in all seven.
      • 18+ attempts in 6 of 7 games, including 21 and 18 in the last two.
      • Jacksonville's pregame defense EPA allowed is -0.0606, a difficult run-environment signal.
      Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
      • 5/5 L5, 10/10 L10, and 7/7 in 2026 cleared 13.5 attempts.
      • 19.4 attempts per game over L5; last-10 average is 19.1 versus a 13.5 line.
      • Jacksonville's team run-defense grade is 76.3, so matchup quality is not uniformly favorable.
    5. Jacksonville Jaguars −10.52 models agree
      2.08x48¢

      +108% profit if it wins

      2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Key Number Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      BETALAB 6.0
      • Jaguars lead offensive EPA/play 0.0999 to -0.0266 and defensive EPA/play -0.0606 to -0.002.
      • Points per drive favor Jacksonville 2.674 to 2.048; PFF overall grades favor Jacksonville 79.2 to 70.6.
      • Neither team has confirmed depth-chart starters posted at 8:57 AM PT.
      Key Number Pairs
      • Jacksonville's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.100 versus Indianapolis -0.027; its defense allows -0.061 versus Indianapolis -0.002.
      • PFF team grades favor Jacksonville 79.2–70.6; Trevor Lawrence's 73.7 passing grade leads Daniel Jones's 48.3.
      • Jacksonville must win by 11 or more; a 10-point win loses this half-point rung.
    6. Jacksonville Jaguars exact margin 1-6Long shot
      6.67x15¢

      +567% profit if it wins

      Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's live spread centers Jacksonville around -10.5, so this home-favorite tail is directionally coherent.
      • The 1-6 bucket contains the observed 3-, 4-, and 6-point spikes; reweighting a smooth +10.5 margin baseline gives Jacksonville 1-6 about 23.7%.
      • The model is a smooth margin distribution plus empirical key-number reweighting, not a team-specific simulation; the 23.7% estimate could be materially wrong.
    7. Over 48.5 total
      2.50x40¢

      +150% profit if it wins

      Key NumberUp 19% profit over 110 picks
    8. First-half total over 21.5
      1.75x57¢

      +75% profit if it wins

      Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 14 rest days for Jacksonville versus 7 for Indianapolis: the strongest first-half freshness and scripting signal.
      • Jacksonville leads on offense EPA/play, +0.0999 versus Indianapolis -0.0266; points per drive 2.674 versus 2.048.
      • The 24.0 projection is only 2.5 points above 21.5; one stalled red-zone drive can erase the edge.
    9. Game 1Q total over 8.5
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
      Why it likes it
      • combined pace is 31.35 seconds/play, supporting roughly 5-6 total Q1 possessions.
      • Both teams are pass-leaning: Jacksonville PROE +6.8%, Indianapolis +9.6%; JAX offense is +0.100 EPA/play.
      • Points per drive are 2.67 for Jacksonville and 2.05 for Indianapolis; fitted Q1 mean is about 11 points.
      • Quarter variance is extreme: roughly 5-6 combined possessions can erase a six-point model gap.
    10. Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown
      1.95x51¢

      +95% profit if it wins

      TD Value Model – DraftKingsUp 6% profit over 68 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Model probability 57%; fair price -133 versus DraftKings -105.
      • Jacksonville averages 2.674 points per drive with +0.100 offensive EPA/play.
      • Tuten has 94 carries, 14 targets and four touchdowns in six games; he is the confirmed RB1.
      • Chris Rodriguez has 39 carries and two rushing touchdowns, so goal-line work is not exclusive.
    11. Indianapolis Colts first-half spread +6.5
      2.13x47¢

      +113% profit if it wins

      Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
      Why it likes it
      • JAX/IND EPA profile favors Jacksonville, but the matchup inputs imply a first-half margin near 5–6 points, not a full-game-sized separation.
      • Full-game margin SD is 14.10 across 2,867 games; square-root scaling puts a half-game SD near 9.97, materially wider than naive linear halving and favorable to +6.5.
      • The warehouse has no first-half-specific margin histogram; the full-game histogram is only a directional prior because halftime key-number mass differs.
    12. Indianapolis Colts over 10.5 first-half team totalLong shot
      3.70x27¢

      +270% profit if it wins

      IntermissionNew model
      Why it likes it
      • Indianapolis scored 13.3 first-half points per game across 7 current-season games, versus 8.4 in the second half; first half cleared 10.5 in 5 of 7.
      • The Colts 1H over 10.5 is priced at 0.27, below the same team's 2H over 10.5 at 0.29 despite the scripted first-half scoring prior.
      • Using the monotone Colts 1H, 2H, and full-game ladders, an independence convolution makes the 1H tail the under-supported component against full-game over 20.5 at 0.36.
      • The convolution is self-referential and assumes independent halves despite game-state dependence.
    13. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half spread under 6.5
      2.08x48¢

      +108% profit if it wins

      Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Up 2% profit over 35 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game sharp spread is Jacksonville -9.5 to -10, with no more than a half-point move from the captured open.
      • A first-half margin mean near Jacksonville -5 with the brief's 9-point SD implies roughly 58% probability of Jacksonville winning by 6.5 or fewer.
      • Recent first-half margin samples are less dominant than the full-game spread: Jacksonville averaged +7 and Indianapolis +5.5 in their latest six games.
      • Jacksonville's home rest edge and a Colts defensive turnover could create an early multi-score margin.
    14. Indianapolis Colts +6.5 first half
      1.92x52¢

      +92% profit if it wins

      Half MeasureDown 1% profit over 11 picks
      Why it likes it
      • INTERNAL COHERENCE + PROJECTION: Pinnacle full-game -10.5 implies roughly JAX -5.25 at halftime; Novig is -6.5, a 1.25-point cushion for IND +6.5.
      • Indianapolis scored 79 first-half points across its last six completed games, 13.2 per game.
      • The 1.25-point gap is only the minimum qualifying edge; first-half variance is substantial.
    15. Josh Downs over 3.5 receptions
      2.14x47¢

      +114% profit if it wins

      Snap ShareDown 3% profit over 38 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Weeks 5-7 usage: 84.5%/44, 85.5%/47, and 85.2%/25 snap share/routes; the snap role is stable despite a Week 7 route dip.
      • Downs is confirmed active and starting; he ranks WR1 for Indianapolis with an 81.5% season snap share and 248 routes in seven games.
      • Most likely loss: the 25-route Week 7 role persists and Downs receives too few targets to reach four catches.
    16. Indianapolis Colts under 19.5 team points
      1.79x56¢

      +79% profit if it wins

      One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Indianapolis offense is -0.0266 EPA/play against Jacksonville defense at -0.0606 EPA/play allowed; the matchup is below neutral.
      • Colts average 2.05 points per drive through seven games, while their red-zone conversion is 12-for-20 (60%).
      • The board looks spread-split: 19.5 Colts points plus roughly 27.5 Jacksonville points is about 47, matching the 46.5 game total and near the 10-point spread.
      • Colts average 22.0 points per game, so a seven-game sample can still produce an above-baseline outing.
    17. Daniel Jones under 174.5 passing yards
      1.87x53¢

      +87% profit if it wins

      Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterDown 13% profit over 56 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Q1 live box: Jones is 4-for-4 for 13 yards with one sack; Colts have -0.6815 EPA/play and a 14.3% success rate on seven plays.
      • Jacksonville entered with -0.061 defensive EPA/play allowed; the live pressure/short-area passing profile supports an efficiency-driven under.
      • Live Colts pass rate is 57.1%, essentially their 56.2% season rate, so the projection does not require an unverified role change.
      • Four completed passes and one quarter are a small live sample; one explosive completion can erase the cushion.
    18. Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 passing touchdowns
      2.54x39¢

      +154% profit if it wins

      NFL HunterV2Down 12% profit over 96 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 47% simulated win probability vs FanDuel's 39.4% break-even at +154: +7.6 percentage points.
      • Jacksonville averages 25.7 points across six 2026 games; that scoring level does not require two Lawrence passing TDs.
      • Jacksonville's 2.322 recent points per drive raises scoring efficiency, but also leaves meaningful touchdown paths through the rushing game.
      • Jacksonville's efficient offense can produce three passing scores even without a shootout.
    19. Indianapolis Colts first team touchdownLong shot
      3.13x32¢

      +213% profit if it wins

      PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Colts red-zone role is concentrated: confirmed Jonathan Taylor is RB1 with 79.4% snap share and a workhorse label.
      • Indianapolis has 20 red-zone attempts and 12 conversions through seven games; Taylor's goal-line equity is the usage anchor.
      • Jaguars offense is stronger, but their 18 red-zone attempts and 12 conversions do not justify a 65% first-TD price by themselves.
      • First touchdown depends heavily on opening possession and scripted drives; the coin toss is not yet known.
    20. Bhayshul Tuten 1+ touchdown
      2.00x50¢

      +100% profit if it wins

      PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Tuten is the expected Jacksonville RB1, depth-chart slot 1, with 55.8% snap share and an early-down-hammer role.
      • Jacksonville has produced 18 red-zone trips and 12 touchdowns in six games; Indianapolis opponents have converted 12 of 20 trips.
      • Jacksonville owns +0.0999 offensive EPA/play versus Indianapolis at -0.0266; the roughly 10-point favorite script should concentrate late goal-line work on Tuten.
      • Tuten is not a workhorse: Chris Rodriguez carries a committee label and a 24.6% snap share.
    21. Under 45.5 total points
      2.00x50¢

      +100% profit if it wins

      House RulesDown 3% profit over 1400 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Under 45.5 wins at exactly 45 points, while Under 45 pushes at exactly 45.
      • A total of 44 or fewer wins, but 46 or more loses; ordinary scoring variance dominates outside the exact-45 pocket.
    22. Jacksonville Jaguars −8.5
      1.82x55¢

      +82% profit if it wins

      Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Both sides show 3 book levels; the core thin-at-quote/deep-total pairing qualifies despite no level-count advantage.
      • Directional coherence: backing Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches.
      • Venue self-reference only: the asymmetry is entirely ProphetX order flow, with no independent sharp reference.
    23. Brenton Strange over 41.5 receiving yards
      1.73x58¢

      +73% profit if it wins

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 51.2 receiving yards per game over his last five, 23% above the 41.5 line.
      • He cleared 41.5 in three of his last five, including 44, 68 and 95 yards.
      • Strange was a confirmed Jacksonville starter at 8:35 AM PST.
      • The recent over rate is only 3 of 5; he posted 17 and 32 yards in the other two.
    24. Bhayshul Tuten over 14.5 receiving yards
      1.73x58¢

      +73% profit if it wins

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 20.8 receiving yards per game over his last five, 43% above the 14.5 line.
      • Cleared 14.5 in four of his last five games.
      • Jacksonville owns a +0.0999 offensive EPA/play input; Indianapolis defensive EPA is near-neutral at -0.002.
      • The five-game sample includes a -3-yard outing and relies heavily on his 48-yard Week 6 spike.
    25. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half winnerFavorite
      1.41x71¢

      +41% profit if it wins

      Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION / TIMING — Jacksonville has 14 rest days to Indianapolis's 7, the wake's strongest first-half signal.
      • to-date gap: Jacksonville offense +0.0999 versus Indianapolis -0.0266; Jacksonville defense -0.0606 versus Indianapolis -0.0020.
      • Pinnacle full-game Jacksonville -473 / Indianapolis +385 devigs to 80.0% Jacksonville; possession/efficiency and tie adjustment produce a conservative 73.5% first-half projection.
      • The full-game Pinnacle price is a sharp proxy, not a directly comparable first-half sharp line; the 73.5% conversion is model-derived.
    26. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half spread over 6.5
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 14 rest days for Jacksonville versus 7 for Indianapolis, with the rest mismatch front-loaded into the scripted first half.
      • Jacksonville has a +0.1265 offensive EPA/play edge, a .5101 versus .4722 success-rate edge, and a .626 points-per-drive advantage.
      • The 1H winner market prices Jacksonville YES at 0.71 while the 6.5-point rung is only 0.53, a coherent but modest conversion from lead probability to margin.
      • The 6.75 derived margin is only 0.25 points above the 6.5 rung; ordinary NFL margin variance dominates a thin edge.
    27. Game total under 45.5
      2.00x50¢

      +100% profit if it wins

      ProphetX PairsDown 5% profit over 1664 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jacksonville defense is -0.0606 EPA/play allowed versus Indianapolis at -0.0020; the matchup favors a controlled Jaguars-led game.
      • Indianapolis offense is -0.0266 EPA/play with a 0.4722 success rate and 0.0807 explosive rate.
      • Quarter-Kelly is 2.0% at a 54% fair estimate; publication stake is capped at 0.5 units.
      • Jacksonville offense is +0.0999 EPA/play and can clear the total if its efficiency converts into early touchdowns.
    28. Game over 9.5 third-quarter total
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
      Why it likes it
      • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
      • Season scoring rates imply about 11.9 combined points per quarter: Jacksonville 2.792 and Indianapolis 1.792 points per drive.
      • Jacksonville's +0.134 offensive EPA/play and -0.149 defensive EPA/play allowed profile favor sustained scoring against Indianapolis's -0.109 offense and +0.040 defense.
      • A quarter has only roughly 5-6 combined possessions; variance is much wider than a full game, so one stalled drive loses this.
    29. Indianapolis Colts 1Q to winLong shot
      3.30x30¢

      +230% profit if it wins

      NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 9% profit over 33 picks
      Why it likes it
      • AFC South matchup: exact divisional gate passes.
      • Colts full-season first-quarter scoring is 4.1 points per game, clearing the 4.0 fallback threshold.
      • BetMGM posts Indianapolis at +230 for the 1Q moneyline, above the roughly 30.3% breakeven.
      • Colts managed only 3.2 first-quarter points per game across their last five, below the recent-form threshold.
    30. Game total over 46
      2.04x49¢

      +104% profit if it wins

      Pace LedgerDown 6% profit over 58 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Colts pace_to_date is 30.7943 seconds/play and Jaguars 31.9083 across seven and six games.
      • Rest is 7 days for Indianapolis and 14 for Jacksonville; the game is non-neutral and both starting QBs are confirmed active.
      • REFERENCE is mixed: 46 is 2 points above team totals summing to 44, but 1 below twice the 23.5 first-half total.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville allows -0.0606 defensive EPA/play and Indianapolis -0.0326 recently, producing stalled drives below 47.
    31. Total points under 46.5
      1.85x54¢

      +85% profit if it wins

      Sunday Board PairsDown 3% profit over 176 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Seven-game Colts sample: -0.0266 offensive EPA/play; Jacksonville’s defense is -0.0606 EPA/play allowed through six games.
      • Jacksonville’s offense is +0.0999 EPA/play, but both offenses operate at measured pace: 31.9083 seconds/play for Jacksonville and 30.7943 for Indianapolis.
      • PROE is modest for both teams (+0.0676 Jacksonville, +0.0956 Indianapolis); Jacksonville has the rest edge at 14 days versus 7.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville’s efficient offense creates a short-field or explosive-play scoring burst that pushes the game above 46.5.
    32. Jacksonville Jaguars game spread −10.5
      2.08x48¢

      +108% profit if it wins

      Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
      Why it likes it
      • SHARP REFERENCE — same-line Pinnacle offers Jacksonville -10.5 at +100.
      • Jacksonville has +0.0999 offensive EPA/play, -0.0606 defensive EPA allowed, and 2.674 points/drive versus Indianapolis at -0.0266, -0.0020, and 2.048.
      • Jacksonville has 14 rest days versus Indianapolis's 7, while recent scoring margin is +5.2 versus -1.0 per game.
      • Most likely loss: Indianapolis keeps the game within 10 points through a low-possession contest or a late backdoor score.
    33. Indianapolis Colts +10
      1.93x52¢

      +93% profit if it wins

      Number EarnedDown 7% profit over 2509 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 53.2% fair cover probability; fair spread Jacksonville -8.5.
      • Jacksonville's pregame offensive EPA is +0.0999/play versus Indianapolis at -0.0266.
      • Indianapolis has allowed 11+ points fewer than its season average in two of its last three games.
      • The 1.3-point model gap is thin; normal NFL scoring variance dominates.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%JAXINDKickoff
    Nov 1Final

    Questions

    Who won Colts vs. Jaguars?

    The Jaguars won 42–7 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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