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Cardinals vs. CowboysFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAT&T Stadium
Cardinals2–5
33–30Final
Cowboys3–4
Score by period
Team12345T
ARI03720333
DAL77313030

Top model pick, graded

Won

Michael Wilson over 4.5 receptions −122

Why Snap Share likes it: Confirmed active starter; WR1 by position-group rank with 90.1% season snap share and 303 routes.

Snap ShareDown 3% this season · 38 picks
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How the picks did

56 picks from 43 models

  1. Dallas Cowboys spread −7.54 models agree
    2.04x49¢

    +104% profit if it wins

    4 modelsSunday Ledger, ProphetX NFL Ladder +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Dallas has the stronger current offense: EPA/play +0.131 vs Arizona -0.062, success .515 vs .444, explosive .105 vs .068, and PPD 2.995 vs 1.845.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona stays within 7.5 because Dallas allows +0.123 EPA/play and Arizona's defense is slightly better at +0.108 allowed.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
    • Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett are confirmed QB1s; both teams have seven current-season regular-season games, qualifying Full coverage.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas wins by 1–7 points or Arizona wins outright; -7.5 has no push protection.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • game to-date: Dallas offense is +0.131 EPA/play versus Arizona defense at +0.1075 allowed; Arizona offense is -0.0617 versus Dallas defense at +0.1225 allowed.
    • Dallas owns the recent offensive-form edge: +0.1167 EPA/play over six games versus Arizona at -0.0738; the sample clears the 3-game coverage gate.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas's +0.1225 defensive EPA allowed lets Arizona score efficiently enough for a backdoor cover.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Dallas offense is +0.1927 EPA/play better than Arizona's (0.1310 vs -0.0617).
    • Personnel gate clears: Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett were both confirmed active starters at 8:36–8:39 AM PT.
    • Dallas and Arizona defensive EPA inputs are both positive, so the matchup is not a clean two-way efficiency edge.
  2. Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions4 models agree
    1.77x57¢

    +77% profit if it wins

    4 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, NFL HunterV2 +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • 59 receptions on 78 targets through seven games: 8.4 catches and 11.1 targets per game.
    • McBride cleared 7.5 receptions in five of seven games, with at least nine targets in every game.
    • The line loses at exactly seven receptions; that occurred twice in seven games.
    NFL HunterV2
    • McBride has 59 receptions on 78 targets through seven games: 8.43 receptions and 11.14 targets per game.
    • McBride's 90.9% snap share and 7-of-7 game participation provide the cleanest Cardinals opportunity profile.
    • Dallas can create a multi-score lead and force Arizona into lower-efficiency late drives or protection changes.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • Research score 72/100 (Grade B): confirmed starter and stable 90.9% team-snap role.
    • McBride cleared 7.5 receptions in 5 of his 7 2026 games; exact sample average is 8.4.
    • Small seven-game exact-stat sample; two games finished below 7.5 receptions.
    Early Down
    • Dallas allowed positive defensive EPA in each of its last four games, including 24, 23, and 21 points over the last three.
    • DraftKings is -123, while the line is still below McBride's recent target-driven reception projection.
    • A 7.5 line leaves little margin; two or three missed targets can make the over lose.
  3. Dallas Cowboys −7.53 models agree
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    3 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Primary pass-trench edge is approximately +0.66 Dallas: Dallas OL pass-block z -0.14 plus matchup pressure advantages versus Arizona's -0.87 OL z.
    • Dallas OL allowed 65 pressures and 1 sack; Arizona allowed 75 pressures and 9 sacks across the same current-season PFF frame.
    • No game-specific individual OL-versus-EDGE/IDL matchup data was published; assignment-level wins remain uncertain.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model margin centers near Dallas -10; EPA, success and points/drive all favor Dallas.
    • Dallas offense: +0.131 EPA/play and 0.5145 success; Arizona offense: -0.0617 EPA/play and 0.4445 success.
    • Dallas has allowed 0.1225 defensive EPA/play in the PIT feature row, so Arizona can score efficiently despite its poor offense.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA strategy scores: Dallas -0.221 vs Arizona -0.987; Dallas advantage +0.766.
    • Primary EPA scores: Dallas -0.062 vs Arizona -0.641; Dallas advantage +0.579, clearing the 0.20 trigger.
    • Dallas grades poorly in defensive success and pass EPA despite the overall signal; Arizona can win the matchup through efficient passing.
  4. Game total under 54.53 models agree
    1.91x52¢

    +91% profit if it wins

    3 modelsBrewing NFL Totals 2.0, Key Number Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • Matchup projection is 49–51 total, a 3.5–5.5-point cushion below 54.5.
    • Combined pace is modest: Dallas 27.84 and Arizona 28.76 seconds/play; expected drives are 9.29 and 11.0.
    • Dallas owns strong offense metrics: +0.131 EPA/play, 0.5145 success, 0.1048 explosive rate and 2.995 points/drive.
    Key Number Pairs
    • Recent combined scoring is 48.2 points per game over five; 2026 season scoring rates combine for 47.3 points per game.
    • Dallas is +0.131 offensive EPA/play, but Arizona is -0.0617; the Cardinals' weak offense is the primary under driver.
    • Dallas and Arizona defenses allow positive EPA/play to date (+0.1225 and +0.1075), creating a shootout path.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Season scoring rates combine to 47.3 points per game, 7.2 below the 54.5 total.
    • The teams’ last-five scoring averages combine to 48.2 points per game (ARI 21.8, DAL 26.4).
    • Dallas has strong season offense: +0.131 EPA/play, 2.995 points per drive, and a 10.5% explosive-play rate.
  5. Dallas Cowboys to winFavorite3 models agree
    1.29x77¢

    +29% profit if it wins

    3 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines +1
    Why 3 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • 79% independent win probability versus a 75.1% sharp-market reference; fair price approximately -376.
    • Dallas leads Arizona in PIT offensive EPA/play, +0.131 to -0.0617, and success rate, 0.5145 to 0.4445.
    • Dallas allows +0.1225 defensive EPA/play in the PIT feature set, leaving an upset path if Arizona finishes drives.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Jacoby Brissett confirmed at 8:39 AM; Carson Beck inactive; Brissett has 282 attempts, 10 TDs, 6 INTs in seven games.
    • Dallas home offense leads Arizona by 0.1927 EPA/play: +0.1310 versus -0.0617.
    • Arizona's season defense EPA allowed is slightly better: 0.1075 versus Dallas at 0.1225.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Dak Prescott is confirmed; his PFF passing grade is 84.6 versus Jacoby Brissett's 70.0, with a 7.4% versus 17.0% pressure-to-sack rate.
    • Dallas leads points per drive 2.814 to 1.892, with home field and an indoor venue reducing weather noise.
    • The trench pressure-win gap is only 2 percentage points in the matchup outputs, below the 12% disparity threshold.
  6. CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions3 models agree
    1.88x53¢

    +88% profit if it wins

    3 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, NFL HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 7 games: 81 targets and 53 receptions; 92.1% route rate across 244 routes.
    • Dallas averaged 26.4 points over its last five; the offense carries a strong 0.131 EPA/play.
    • George Pickens is questionable, so the target-tree allocation may change before kickoff.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Lamb has 53 receptions on 81 targets through seven games: 7.57 receptions and 11.57 targets per game.
    • His win/loss split is 10.0 receptions in Cowboys wins versus 5.8 in losses; the model favors Dallas winning.
    • Arizona's coverage outcomes are noisy; its current defense has allowed 0.1075 EPA/play in the PIT feature row.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 8.0 receptions per game over his last five, 23% above the 6.5 line.
    • Lamb is a confirmed starter; Dak Prescott is also confirmed, removing the quarterback-availability risk.
    • George Pickens is also a confirmed starter despite a questionable shoulder tag, creating target competition.
Show all 40 picks
  1. Michael Wilson over 4.5 receptions2 models agreeHigh conviction
    1.82x55¢

    +82% profit if it wins

    2 modelsSnap Share, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Snap Share
    • Confirmed active starter; WR1 by position-group rank with 90.1% season snap share and 303 routes.
    • Recent role: Week 5 83.6% snap share/45 routes, Week 6 91.7%/33, Week 7 90.1%/57.
    • Most likely loss: Wilson keeps his routes but Arizona converts only four or fewer receptions.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 6.0 receptions per game over his last five, 33% above the 4.5 line.
    • Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett averaged 43.4 attempts over his last five, and the 54.5 total supports a pass-heavy game script.
    • Wilson was limited in practice with a rib issue, although the game-day lineup lists him confirmed and starting.
  2. Game total over 54.52 models agree
    2.00x50¢

    +100% profit if it wins

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Pace Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Both defenses show positive EPA-to-date: Dallas +0.1225 and Arizona +0.1075, supporting a higher-scoring projection.
    • Pinnacle over 54.5 is -106 and DraftKings -110; context only, not the edge.
    • Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett are expected, not officially confirmed starters; Arizona also has three questionable projected starters.
    Pace Ledger
    • Confirmed active starters posted by ESPN at 8:36/8:39 AM PT; indoor, non-neutral venue supports a clean pace read.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's -0.0617 offensive EPA/play and 20.3 points per game stall enough drives to stay below 55.
  3. Under 54.5 totalHigh conviction
    2.00x50¢

    +100% profit if it wins

    DriftUp 1% profit over 535 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating: 55.0% under; seven-game scoring averages combine for 47.3 points, 7.2 below 54.5.
    • Arizona averages -0.062 EPA/play, 44.4% success and 6.8% explosive rate; its 20.3 points per game is the key drag.
    • Both quarterbacks are confirmed: Jacoby Brissett for Arizona and Dak Prescott for Dallas; the Cardinals' starter is not Kyler Murray.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas converts its strong 0.131 offensive EPA/play and Arizona's weak defense into an early lead and shootout script.
  4. Arizona Cardinals exact margin 1-6Long shot
    11.11x9¢

    +1011% profit if it wins

    Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE; RECOMMENDED Tier 1: Pinnacle's live main spread is Dallas -7.5.
    • Reweighting a smooth +7.5 margin baseline by those observed key-number masses gives Arizona 1-6 about 16.1%.
    • A Dallas win, Arizona blowout loss, tie, or margin outside 1-6 all lose this contract.
  5. Dallas Cowboys first-half winnerFavorite
    1.49x67¢

    +49% profit if it wins

    Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Dallas 6 days, Arizona 7; Arizona’s one-day edge is modest, not a short-week mismatch.
    • Dallas offense is +0.131 EPA/play versus Arizona -0.0617, a +0.1927 EPA/play gap.
    • Success rate is .5145 versus .4445; points per drive is 2.9948 versus 1.8449.
    • Arizona’s extra rest and Dallas’s +0.1225 defensive EPA allowed can keep this half competitive.
  6. Dallas Cowboys first-half win by over 4.5 points
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Dallas 6 days, Arizona 7; the Cardinals hold only a one-day edge.
    • Dallas offense is +0.131 EPA/play versus Arizona -0.0617; success rate is .5145 versus .4445.
    • PPD is 2.9948 versus 1.8449; Dallas also has the faster pace, 27.84 versus 28.76 seconds per play.
    • Arizona’s one-day rest advantage and Dallas’s +0.1225 defensive EPA allowed can keep this within one score.
  7. Game 2Q total under 16.5
    1.85x54¢

    +85% profit if it wins

    Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date points per drive: Dallas 2.995, Arizona 1.845; a 17-point quarter is an aggressive upper-tail outcome.
    • Pace is 27.84/28.76 seconds per play and PROE is +18.9%/+16.6%; the pass lean does not erase limited quarter possessions.
    • The live first quarter is 0-0 at 4:34 after four drives, reinforcing a lower immediate scoring baseline.
    • End-of-half clock management can create an extra possession and aggressive fourth-down decisions.
  8. Game total over 10.5
    2.17x46¢

    +117% profit if it wins

    Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
    Why it likes it
    • First-quarter opening scripts are the most projectable window; both starting QBs are confirmed active.
    • Combined season-to-date PPD is 4.840; at roughly five total Q1 drives, raw scoring expectation is about 12.1 points.
    • Quarter markets average only roughly five to six total possessions; turnovers, field position, or one explosive play can dominate.
  9. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    242.00x0¢

    +24100% profit if it wins

    Parlay LabUp 24% profit over 27 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo's recent offense EPA/play is +0.1800, points per drive 3.046, and 14 days of rest; Bills are 61.54¢ (-160) on ProphetX versus Pinnacle -173.
    • ProphetX quotes the exact three-leg slip at +238 and allows a $1,000 maximum stake at that quote.
    • Buffalo's defense has a -0.1359 opponent EPA/play edge for Baltimore, while C.J. Gardner-Johnson is suspended and several Bills are questionable.
  10. Dallas Cowboys −4.5
    1.92x52¢

    +92% profit if it wins

    Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas leads Arizona in 2026 offense EPA/play, .131 to -.062, and points per drive, 2.995 to 1.845.
    • Pace inputs are 27.84 and 28.76 seconds/play; a pace-based roughly 5–6 drives/team half supports about a 5.5-point Dallas margin.
    • Half-margin SD scales with the square root of drives, not a linear half of full-game SD; that favors Dallas's early efficiency edge over mechanical halving.
    • Dallas's defense allows +.123 EPA/play to date, so Arizona can exploit the matchup despite its weak offense.
  11. Arizona Cardinals under 26.5 first-half total
    2.13x47¢

    +113% profit if it wins

    Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
    Why it likes it
    • under 26.5 costs 47c; fitted win probability is 56%, a 9-point gap.
    • 2026 through seven games: Arizona averages 20.3 points and -0.062 offensive EPA/play; Dallas allows 25.7 points per game.
    • Combined pace is 28.30 seconds per play; Arizona's weak offense limits the number of efficient early scoring drives despite Dallas' +0.131 offensive EPA/play.
    • Dallas offense and Arizona defense are both favorable to scoring: +0.131 Dallas offensive EPA/play and +0.108 Arizona defensive EPA allowed.
  12. Ryan Flournoy over 3.5 receptions
    1.98x50¢

    +98% profit if it wins

    NFL Usage AdventureUp 2% profit over 109 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Flournoy averaged 77.8% snaps and 39 route snaps over the last three; every game cleared the 50% role gate.
    • Arizona ranks 30th in defensive EPA allowed and 12th-most generous against wide receivers.
    • Dallas ranks second in pace and fourth in offensive EPA; its 64% pass rate supports sustained routes.
    • Only three games define the current role; the sample is thin and prior-year usage was lower.
  13. Jacoby Brissett over 36.5 pass attempts
    1.83x55¢

    +83% profit if it wins

    NFL Usage AdventureUp 2% profit over 109 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Brissett played 100% of offensive snaps in each of his last three games and is confirmed active.
    • Dallas ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play allowed; quarterback matchup rank is sixth-most generous.
    • DraftKings -121 prices a lower bar than the recent workload in a fast, high-total environment.
    • Sleeper and ESPN component projections are 34.9 and 37.2 attempts, clustering near the line.
  14. Dallas Cowboys first-half spread under 6.5
    1.82x55¢

    +82% profit if it wins

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Up 2% profit over 35 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread stayed Dallas -7.5 from open; the point has moved 0.0, below the 1.5-point gate.
    • First-half mean is approximately 4.0 points from the -7.5 full-game line; with the brief's 9-point SD, Dallas stays within 6.5 about 61%.
    • Opening-drive scoring was balanced: Dallas scored on 4 of 7 first drives, Arizona on 3 of 7; no clear early-script Dallas boost.
    • The 9-point first-half margin SD is a generic assumption, not a game-specific fitted distribution.
  15. Over 54.5 total points
    2.00x50¢

    +100% profit if it wins

    ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main board also has Dallas -7.5 (+104) / Arizona +7.5 (-115) and Dallas moneyline -325 / Arizona +277; 54.5 is the sharp total anchor.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's weak offense remains the true level and Dallas fails to convert its scoring opportunities, leaving the game at 54 points or fewer.
  16. CeeDee Lamb over 84.5 receiving yards
    1.91x52¢

    +91% profit if it wins

    NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 342 yards on 56 targets over four games versus 450 expected at his 8.04 season yards/target: 24% underproduction.
    • Lamb is confirmed starting; the sportsbook board prices this exact Arizona-Dallas game.
    • Snap share fell to 56.7% in Week 5, creating some role-volatility risk despite the rebound.
  17. Total points over 54.5
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Sunday Board PairsDown 3% profit over 176 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game current-season efficiency: Dallas offense is +0.1310 EPA/play, while Arizona defense allows +0.1075; Arizona offense is -0.0617 against Dallas defense allowing +0.1225.
    • The indoor, non-neutral venue removes weather suppression; Dallas has six rest days and Arizona seven, a negligible adjustment.
    • Both QB1s are current and active: Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett; the read is based on seven-game samples for each team.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas controls the game and Arizona’s -0.0617 offensive EPA/play produces too few points to clear 54.5.
  18. Arizona Cardinals under 23.5 team points
    2.00x50¢

    +100% profit if it wins

    One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's -0.0617 offensive EPA-to-date meets Dallas's +0.1225 defensive EPA allowed-to-date, but the Cardinals' 1.845 points/drive trails Dallas's 2.995.
    • Arizona converted 12 of 28 red-zone trips (42.9%) through Week 7; Dallas's defense is a difficult scoring-conversion matchup despite its poor EPA profile.
    • The 23.5 board number looks spread-split derived: Dallas 30.5 plus Arizona 23.5 is 54.0 versus the 54.5 game total, while the difference is 7.0 versus the 7.5 spread.
    • The Cardinals' official starting quarterback and full offensive lineup are not confirmed; Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. are listed out, but a replacement-player surprise could change efficiency.
  19. Dallas Cowboys win by 7-14Long shot
    3.33x30¢

    +233% profit if it wins

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 16% profit over 43 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model center is Dallas by roughly 10.5 points, about 3.0 above the -7.5 market spread.
    • Recent EPA matchup blend favors Dallas; season matchup EPA is materially stronger, creating a right-tail margin shift.
    • Key-number mass at 3, 6, 7, and 10 concentrates outcomes around the 7-14 band; model probability is 37%.
    • Dallas' recent five-game EPA matchup edge is only about 0.026 EPA/play; the season signal drives much of the margin estimate.
  20. Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerLong shot
    4.60x22¢

    +360% profit if it wins

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 41% profit over 25 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas has converted 20 of 27 red-zone trips into touchdowns; Arizona has allowed 16 touchdowns on 23 opponent trips.
    • Williams is the confirmed RB1/workhorse: 74.5% season snap share, 110 carries, 8 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD through seven games.
    • My 23% first-TD estimate is fair +335; FanDuel +360 implies 21.7%, with the market open and the player confirmed in the participant feed.
    • This is the permitted fallback efficiency read, not a full opponent-adjusted model; the current sample is only seven games.
  21. Dallas Cowboys first touchdown
    1.61x62¢

    +61% profit if it wins

    PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas has 27 red-zone trips and 20 touchdowns (74.1%) through seven games.
    • Arizona has allowed 16 touchdowns on 23 opponent red-zone trips (69.6%), supporting Dallas converting its scoring chances.
    • Dallas's lead back is a confirmed workhorse at 74.5% snap share; goal-line-role judgment is derived from snap share, RB role, and red-zone proxies.
    • Opening kickoff and coin-toss result are unknown; first-touchdown timing is sensitive to who gets the first possession.
  22. Javonte Williams over 0.5 touchdownsFavorite
    1.49x67¢

    +49% profit if it wins

    PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 74.5% expected snap share, RB depth-chart rank 1, and a workhorse role label; no back is ahead of Williams.
    • Dallas has 27 red-zone attempts and 20 conversions through seven games (74.1%); Arizona has allowed 23 opponent red-zone attempts and 16 conversions (69.6%).
    • Dallas leads the pregame profile at 2.995 points per drive and +0.131 offensive EPA/play; favorite game script should concentrate late red-zone carries.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineup status; game-day inactives were not posted at the 7:22 AM PT lookup.
  23. Michael Wilson under 59.5 receiving yards
    1.91x52¢

    +91% profit if it wins

    +EV Volume HandicapperDown 9% profit over 256 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 375 yards on 66 targets through seven games: 5.68 yards per target and 1.32 YPRR.
    • Under 59.5 yards in five of seven games; his last three outputs were 55, 32, and 30 yards.
    • Primary role is stable: 90.1% team-snap share, 9.4 targets per game, and no current injury designation.
    • Dallas coverage grade is only 42.1 and its recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.0694/play, creating chunk-play risk.
  24. Game total under 40.5Long shot
    7.14x14¢

    +614% profit if it wins

    Chain MoversUp 75% profit over 46 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date PPD is 2.995 for Dallas and 1.845 for Arizona; last-five PPD is 2.668 and 1.970, respectively.
    • Season pace is 27.84 seconds/play for Dallas and 28.76 for Arizona; the derived center is close to the sharp 54.5 total.
    • Tail guard: a 17% estimate is less reliable in the wings; the distribution is built from only seven games per team and a rough SD.
  25. Arizona Cardinals +7.5
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% profit over 368 picks
    Why it likes it
    • The matched Polymarket US full-game +7.5 contract is executable at a 51¢ buyer cost.
    • Dallas leads Arizona in pregame offense EPA/play (0.131 vs -0.0617), success rate (0.5145 vs 0.4445), and points/drive (2.995 vs 1.845).
  26. First-half total over 26.5 points
    1.85x54¢

    +85% profit if it wins

    Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Dallas 6 days, Arizona 7; both teams have near-normal preparation, with Arizona’s one-day edge modest.
    • Fast combined pace, 27.84 and 28.76 seconds per play, supports a high first-half possession count.
    • Pinnacle full-game total 54.5; 54.5 × 52% scripted share projects 28.34 first-half points, not a flat 27.25.
    • Arizona’s -0.0617 offensive EPA/play and 1.8449 PPD are the main threat to the over.
  27. Trey McBride under 74.5 receiving yards
    1.89x53¢

    +89% profit if it wins

    Target Quality YardsUp 8% profit over 28 picks
    Why it likes it
    • NGS REG, last 4 of 7 current games: 5.86 intended air yards; separation 2.18 yards, down from 3.81 in Week 3.
    • PFF REGPO depth mix, 2026: 4 deep, 13 medium, 49 short and 8 behind-LOS targets; depth-weighted aDOT proxy 7.03.
    • 2026 YPRR 1.67 and route grade 77.4, down from 1.78 and 84.8 in 2025; route rate remains 91.0%.
    • Dallas coverage grade is 42.1; the specific TE assignment and corner coverage grade remain unresolved, with no true shadow established.
  28. Jacoby Brissett over 37.5 pass attempts
    1.88x53¢

    +88% profit if it wins

    Second WindUp 4% profit over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 43.3 attempts per game over his last three: 47, 35, 48; over this line twice.
    • Arizona's pass rate rose to 68.0% last week from 61.1% over its first six games.
    • Dallas allowed positive defensive EPA per play in each of Weeks 5-7: 0.104, 0.057, 0.049.
    • Brissett is expected, not confirmed; a late quarterback or lineup change is the biggest risk.
  29. Dallas Cowboys spread −7
    1.85x54¢

    +85% profit if it wins

    CLV Sharp ATSUp 1% profit over 21 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes Dallas -9.5, 2.0 points above the -7.5 consensus.
    • Last-five net EPA/play: Dallas -0.036 versus Arizona -0.187, a +0.152 differential.
    • Success rate is 50.7% for Dallas versus 45.7% for Arizona.
    • Dak Prescott has no injury designation, but a confirmed game-day active listing was not posted at 9:00am.
  30. Dallas Cowboys −2.5Favorite
    1.37x73¢

    +37% profit if it wins

    Key RungDown 8% profit over 13 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -7.5 devigs to 49.5% Dallas cover probability at the main line.
    • Crossing 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 adds roughly 25.5 points; adjusted fair is about 75.5%.
    • The 3.0-point gap is the minimum threshold and depends on rough margin-mass estimates.
  31. Jacoby Brissett 1+ passing touchdownsLong shot
    4.00x25¢

    +300% profit if it wins

    PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Brissett is the confirmed Arizona starter; the injury/depth-order gate is resolved.
    • Arizona has converted 12 of 29 2026 red-zone trips (41.4%), including 0-for-1 in this live game.
    • Arizona's offense is at -0.0617 EPA/play to date versus Dallas at +0.131, supporting a lower Cardinals scoring baseline.
    • Dallas has allowed 19 touchdowns on 27 opponent red-zone trips (70.4%), a direct counterargument to the under.
  32. Under 54.5 total points
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Both sides show 3 book_levels; the first two measures agree, while the level count is neutral.
    • Backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches. ProphetX quote is 50.5c (-102 American).
    • The third measure does not corroborate: book_levels are tied 3-3.
  33. Dallas Cowboys −14.5Long shot
    3.57x28¢

    +257% profit if it wins

    Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas leads Arizona by 0.193 EPA/play offensively (0.131 vs -0.0617), plus success rate .5145 vs .4445 and explosive rate .1048 vs .0682.
    • Points per drive are 2.995 for Dallas versus 1.845 for Arizona; the personnel context also lists Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. out for Arizona.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas wins but fails to separate by 15, with Arizona scoring late or covering through backdoor variance.
  34. Dallas Cowboys −7
    1.85x54¢

    +85% profit if it wins

    Number EarnedDown 7% profit over 2509 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair line: Dallas -8.5; 55% cover probability versus DraftKings -7.
    • Dallas last-10 offense EPA/play +0.1305 versus Arizona -0.0202.
    • Dallas last-10 success rate .517 versus Arizona .454; recent scoring-margin gap is 10.7 points/game.
    • Dallas defensive injuries and George Pickens remain a late-status uncertainty.

Win chance, start to finish

50%DALARIKickoff
Nov 1Final

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Cowboys?

The Cardinals won 33–30 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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