Vikings vs. LionsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFord Field

Vikings6–0

15–19Final

Lions4–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	0	7	0	8	15
DET	3	3	6	7	19

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jahmyr Gibbs over 87.5 rushing yards −113

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: Last-three carries rose from 15 to 25 to 29, supporting a stable-to-rising workload.

NFL Regression RadarDown 5% this season · 72 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

57 picks from 41 models

Detroit Lions −3.54 models agree
2.04x49¢
+104% profit if it wins
4 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, NFL Luck Regression +2
Why 4 models like it
NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
- 0.0674 offensive EPA/play for Detroit versus -0.0993 for Minnesota over the last 10.
- The market moved from Detroit -3 to -3.5 at sharp reference pricing, projecting a close near -4 and positive expected CLV.
- Minnesota's defense is substantially better by EPA allowed: -0.1567 versus Detroit's -0.0215.
NFL Luck Regression
- Luck scores: Vikings +0.790 versus Lions -0.096; difference +0.886 exceeds the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary luck: Vikings +0.261 versus Lions -0.037; difference +0.298 exceeds the 0.20 trigger.
- Minnesota is 6-0 and its defense has produced -0.212 EPA per play allowed, so some performance is structural rather than variance.
NFL Trench Mismatch
- TrenchScore Detroit +0.51 vs Minnesota -0.06; modeled edge +0.57 clears the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary pass-trench edge +0.41 clears the required 0.25 threshold.
- Detroit must win by four; a one-score game, turnover, or late field goal defeats the spread despite the trench edge.
EPA Mismatch
- Own spread estimate is approximately Detroit -6.5: season matchup EPA gap is 0.4843 per play.
- Recent 10-game matchup EPA still favors Detroit by 0.3019 per play.
- Minnesota's recent defense EPA allowed is -0.1567 per play versus Detroit's -0.0215, the clearest opposing signal.
Minnesota Vikings to win4 models agree
2.51x40¢
+151% profit if it wins
4 modelsPigskin Pete, Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines +2
Why 4 models like it
Pigskin Pete
- -0.2117 Minnesota defensive EPA allowed/play over the last six versus Detroit's +0.0781.
- Minnesota is 6-0 with a +8.5 recent scoring margin; Detroit is 4-2 at +3.2.
- Detroit owns the stronger overall grade, 88.0 to Minnesota's 78.3, and the passing-grade gap is 82.2 to 66.5.
Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
- Model: MIN net EPA +0.1458 vs DET +0.0506; 1,139-game calibration projects DET -1.9 points.
- MIN defense allows -0.2117 EPA/play; DET allows +0.0781; Minnesota is 6-0 with an +8.5 margin.
- Six-game sample: 382 Minnesota and 398 Detroit offensive plays; EPA is not opponent-adjusted.
Resting Money
- Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree, with raw stakes large enough to reduce stale-quote noise.
- This is venue self-reference only; the resting orders may be stale, strategic, or concentrated rather than predictive money.
Long Way Home
- Minnesota is 6-0 with a +8.5 average margin over its last six; Detroit is 4-2 at +3.2, a 5.3-point form-margin gap.
- Pinnacle's +158 sharp reference agrees with the Vikings direction; ProphetX improves that price to +164.
- Most likely loss: Detroit's home offense turns the matchup into a controlled Lions win before Minnesota can generate an upset script.
Detroit Lions to win3 models agree
1.59x63¢
+59% profit if it wins
3 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Sunday Board Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
- Detroit is 4-2 against Minnesota's 6-0 start; Jay Ward and Aaron Jones remain questionable, and the read can simply be wrong.
Sunday Board Pairs
- Detroit's +0.1286 offensive EPA/play faces Minnesota's -0.2117 defensive EPA/play allowed; the six-game sample clears coverage.
- Detroit operates faster at 28.415 seconds/play versus Minnesota's 32.052, with a stronger +0.1288 PROE versus +0.0148; the possession and aggression gap supports the home side.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota's elite defensive EPA profile holds Detroit below expectation while the Vikings' defense creates short fields or late-game pressure.
Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
- Lions season-to-date offense EPA/play is +0.1286 versus Minnesota's -0.0659; success rate is 52.5% versus 42.4%.
- Detroit averages 2.97 points per drive versus Minnesota's 1.75 through six regular-season games.
- Minnesota's defense is materially better: -0.2117 EPA/play allowed versus Detroit's +0.0781.
Minnesota Vikings first-half spread +2.52 models agree
2.00x50¢
+100% profit if it wins
2 modelsSplit Decision, Locker Room
Why 2 models like it
Split Decision
- 7 rest days each: no short-week disadvantage; the spread value comes from Detroit’s expected narrow lead, not fatigue.
- DET’s stronger offense is offset by MIN’s -0.2117 defensive EPA versus DET’s +0.0781 defensive EPA.
- The projected 1.9-point Detroit lead leaves only 0.6 points of cushion; one short touchdown loses the NO contract.
Locker Room
- VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
- MIN +2.5 is 49c; my fitted first-half margin is Detroit +1.8, giving Minnesota cover probability 55%.
- No depth-chart starters are on file; Aaron Jones Sr., Jay Ward, Myles Price, and Roger McCreary are questionable.
Game total under 46.52 models agree
1.83x55¢
+83% profit if it wins
2 modelsNFL HunterV2, Pace Ledger
Why 2 models like it
NFL HunterV2
- Simulation median is 43 total points; under 46.5 wins 57.0% of scenarios.
- Minnesota defense allows -0.2117 EPA/play across its six-game window.
- Detroit offense is strong at +0.1286 EPA/play, 0.525 success rate and 2.966 points per drive.
Pace Ledger
- Reference label SHARP REFERENCE: sportsbook board clustered at 46 to 46.5, while this ticket uses the live ProphetX 46.5 contract.
- Most likely loss: Detroit's 30.7 points per game and 2.966 recent points per drive convert the high combined play count into 47-plus points.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 87.5 rushing yardsHigh conviction
1.88x53¢
+88% profit if it wins
NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
Why it likes it
- Last-three carries rose from 15 to 25 to 29, supporting a stable-to-rising workload.
- 82.2% average snap share over the last three games; Gibbs is a confirmed starter.
- The 24.3% efficiency surplus is materially unsustainable; regression toward 4.63 season yards per carry is central to the estimate.

Show all 47 picks

Detroit Lions exact margin 1-6Long shot
4.35x23¢
+335% profit if it wins
Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
Jared Goff over 257.5 passing yardsHigh conviction
1.73x58¢
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
Why it likes it
- 316.4-yard average over his last five starts is 22.9% above the 257.5 line.
- Minnesota's defense has a strong -0.2117 defensive EPA-to-date mark, the clearest matchup objection.
fourth quarter ends levelLong shot
7.69x13¢
+669% profit if it wins
Level TermsUp 76% profit over 53 picks
Why it likes it
- 0.58 minus 0.42 implies a 0.16 fourth-quarter draw; the direct draw YES is 0.13, a three-point structural discount.
- Venue SELF-REFERENCE: the direct draw quote is below the draw probability implied by the handicap/winner pair.
- There is no independent sharp period-three-way reference; this is structural, not a model projection.
third quarter ends levelFavorite
1.23x81¢
+23% profit if it wins
Level TermsUp 76% profit over 53 picks
Why it likes it
- 0.50 minus 0.35 implies a 0.15 third-quarter draw; the direct draw is 0.20, so its NO side is structurally cheap at 0.81.
- There is no independent sharp period-three-way reference; this is structural, not a model projection.
Game total under 24.5Long shot
16.67x6¢
+1567% profit if it wins
Chain MoversUp 75% profit over 46 picks
Why it likes it
- Edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE — the full-game 23.5 Under is quoted at 75%, while the next full-game 24.5 Under is only 5.5%.
- The 24.5 rung has both Polymarket US sides quoted, is OPEN and tradable, and its slug is a full-game total with no period/team tag.
- Sharp live reference is 39.0; 24.5 is 14.5 points into the lower wing, exactly the desk's tail territory.
- Tail model uncertainty is high beyond 14 points from the center; the roughly 12% estimate is intentionally imprecise.
Detroit Lions spread −10.5Long shot
4.00x25¢
+300% profit if it wins
Sunday LedgerUp 21% profit over 100 picks
Why it likes it
- Detroit leads Minnesota in current-season offense EPA/play (0.129 to -0.066), success rate (52.5% to 42.4%), explosive rate (12.5% to 10.7%), and points/drive (2.97 to 1.75); both teams have seven days rest and Ford Field is indoor.
- Most likely loss: Detroit wins but by 10 or fewer, with the -10.5 rung vulnerable to late-game variance and Minnesota's backdoor scoring.
Over 47.5 total
2.22x45¢
+122% profit if it wins
Key NumberUp 19% profit over 110 picks
Detroit Lions first-half winner
1.85x54¢
+85% profit if it wins
Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
Why it likes it
- 7 rest days each: no rest edge, so the signal is efficiency and scripted pace, not schedule fatigue.
- DET offense: +0.1286 EPA/play, .5251 success, 28.42-second pace, .1288 PROE, 2.9657 PPD.
- Pinnacle full-game DET -3.5; script-weighted first-half margin is about DET -1.9.
- Minnesota defense is materially better: -0.2117 EPA allowed versus Detroit +0.0781, limiting the favorite’s early scoring.
Game 2Q total under 10.5
2.78x36¢
+178% profit if it wins
Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
Why it likes it
- REFERENCE | PROJECTION: season-to-date points per drive are Detroit 2.54 and Minnesota 1.50; the matchup is not a high-efficiency pairing.
- Combined pace is slow: Detroit 28.47 and Minnesota 31.62 seconds per play.
- Live Q1 is 0-0 after a missed field goal and two punts; only Detroit's current drive has reached 40 yards.
- Q2 end-of-half clock management can create a sudden scoring burst, especially after a turnover or short field.
Under 46 total
2.00x50¢
+100% profit if it wins
DriftUp 1% profit over 535 picks
Why it likes it
- Power rating: 52.0% under; six-game scoring averages blend to roughly 45.7 points.
- Minnesota allows -0.2117 EPA/play and scores only 20.8 points per game; Detroit's offense is strong but meets that defense.
- Both quarterbacks are confirmed: Jared Goff and Kyler Murray; all relevant game-day lineup rows are confirmed.
- Most likely loss: Detroit's 30.7-point scoring average and +0.1286 offensive EPA/play overwhelm Minnesota's otherwise strong defense.
Minnesota Vikings spread +3.5
1.92x52¢
+92% profit if it wins
DriftUp 1% profit over 535 picks
Why it likes it
- Power rating: Minnesota 55.0% to cover +3.5; net EPA/play is +0.1458 for MIN versus +0.0505 for DET.
- Minnesota is 6-0 with a +8.5 last-six scoring margin; Detroit is 4-2 with a +3.2 margin.
- Most likely loss: Detroit's stronger offense—0.1286 offensive EPA/play versus Minnesota's -0.0659—turns home-field advantage into a margin beyond 3.5.
3-leg parlayLong shot
242.00x0¢
+24100% profit if it wins
Parlay LabUp 24% profit over 27 picks
Why it likes it
- Buffalo's recent offense EPA/play is +0.1800, points per drive 3.046, and 14 days of rest; Bills are 61.54¢ (-160) on ProphetX versus Pinnacle -173.
- ProphetX quotes the exact three-leg slip at +238 and allows a $1,000 maximum stake at that quote.
- Buffalo's defense has a -0.1359 opponent EPA/play edge for Baltimore, while C.J. Gardner-Johnson is suspended and several Bills are questionable.
Minnesota Vikings first-half winnerLong shot
4.00x25¢
+300% profit if it wins
Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
Why it likes it
- Full-game signed margin SD is 14.10 points across 2,867 games; square-root drive scaling implies roughly 9.97 points for a half, not a linearly halved 7.05.
- Using the full-game -3.5 Detroit anchor only for the mean, the fitted first-half margin is about Detroit +1.75 with wide half variance; Minnesota wins about 39% after tie allowance.
- The live state is 0-0 at 4:55 of Q1, so no early score has invalidated the pregame mean while the half market remains active.
- Detroit's to-date offense and points-per-drive lead Minnesota: +0.1286 vs -0.0659 offensive EPA and 2.97 vs 1.75 PPD.
Game first-half total under 22.5
2.04x49¢
+104% profit if it wins
Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
Why it likes it
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE.
- Fitted first-half mean is 21.8 points; the 49c under price implies only a 51% break-even probability.
- Polymarket US lists 45.5 for the full game while both half totals center at 22.5; the halves sum to 45, leaving only a modest late scoring bump.
- Detroit's 28.415-second pace and efficient offense can create an early short-field or red-zone spike.
Game first-half total under 23.5
1.79x56¢
+79% profit if it wins
Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Up 2% profit over 35 picks
Why it likes it
- Sharp full-game total is 46.0; 47–49% first-half mapping gives 21.6–22.5 points before script adjustment.
- First-down pass rates are 52.2% Detroit and 38.4% Minnesota; recent opening drives produced points in only 2/6 and 3/6 games.
- Full-game total stayed 46.0 from the sharp open; the first-half rung is coherent with Kalshi’s full-game ladder.
- A turnover or short field can create 24 first-half points quickly; scoring variance is wide.
Over 47.5 total points
2.27x44¢
+127% profit if it wins
ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
Why it likes it
- The SD 13.5 Pinnacle-anchored total distribution gives p_anchor 44.3% at Over 47.5; EV_anchor is +0.2% at +126.
- p_model 46.5% at Over 47.5 produces EV_model +5.1%; Full tier, flat 1u. The 2,867-game margin histogram was computed this wake; total key-number mass is negligible.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota's strong -0.2117 defensive EPA allowed and slow 32.052-second pace suppress Detroit's offense, keeping the total at 47 or fewer.
Jameson Williams over 51.5 receiving yards
1.88x53¢
+88% profit if it wins
NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
Why it likes it
- 90.6% average snap share over the last three games; 83.8%-98.6% range confirms stable opportunity.
- Confirmed starter; FanDuel offers the lower 51.5 line at -113.
- The 19.7% efficiency surplus is a negative-regression signal; per-target production can fall sharply.
Detroit Lions spread −3.5
2.04x49¢
+104% profit if it wins
Sunday Board PairsDown 3% profit over 176 picks
Why it likes it
- ProphetX prices Detroit moneyline -166 (62.41¢) but Detroit -3.5 at +106 (48.54¢) on the same board.
- PROJECTION context — through six games, Detroit offense is +0.1286 EPA/play versus Minnesota defense at -0.2117; Minnesota offense is -0.0659 versus Detroit defense at +0.0781.
- PFF reference supports Detroit's side: overall 88.0 and offense 82.8 versus Minnesota 78.3 and 66.5; both teams have seven rest days indoors.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota's -0.2117 defensive EPA profile keeps Detroit inside the 3.5-point margin despite the venue inconsistency.
Minnesota Vikings under 21.5 full-game team points
1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
Why it likes it
- Minnesota is -0.0659 offensive EPA/play to date, averages 1.754 points per drive, and plays at a slow 32.05 seconds per play.
- Minnesota has converted only 7 of 14 red-zone trips (50.0%), a material touchdown-conversion drag against a 21.5 threshold.
- The full-team-total neighborhood is coherent with the board: Minnesota 21.5 plus Detroit about 24.5 is 46, close to the 45.5 game total and 3.5-point spread; the projection, not the split, drives this under.
- Detroit's defense is positive 0.0781 EPA allowed per play, a weakness that can lift Minnesota above its low offensive baseline.
Detroit Lions over 10.5 first-half team points
1.89x53¢
+89% profit if it wins
One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Detroit projects 12.0 first-half points versus a 10.5 line at 53¢.
- Detroit is +0.1286 offensive EPA/play to date; Minnesota allows -0.2117 defensive EPA/play, a strong defense but a matchup still supported by Detroit's efficient offense.
- Detroit has converted 19 of 22 red-zone trips (86.4%), the clearest scoring-conversion support for an early over.
- Both teams remain on expected, not confirmed, lineups; Detroit's projected Goff skill group and Minnesota's defensive personnel could change before kickoff.
Minnesota Vikings winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
5.26x19¢
+426% profit if it wins
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 16% profit over 43 picks
Why it likes it
- EPA blend favors Minnesota by roughly 2.5 neutral points before home field; Detroit market spread is -3.5.
- Final margin center is near Detroit +1 after home field and finishing-drive adjustment, a 4.5-point market divergence.
- Key-number mass around 3 makes Minnesota 1–6 the strongest Vikings band; model probability is 23% versus 19¢.
- Detroit leads season success rate by 10.1 points and points per drive 2.97 to 1.75, opposing the EPA signal.
Under 41.5 total
1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterDown 13% profit over 56 picks
Why it likes it
- 0-0 at 4:55 of Q1 after 22 scrimmage plays; Minnesota also missed a 57-yard field goal.
- Live offensive EPA/play is -0.716 Minnesota and -0.357 Detroit; success rates are 33.3% and 38.5%.
- Pinnacle's live reference is 39.0, while DraftKings' current main total is 41.5.
- Detroit's active six-play, 40-yard drive can create an immediate scoring swing despite the scoreless start.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 78.5 receiving yards
1.88x53¢
+88% profit if it wins
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 12% profit over 73 picks
Why it likes it
- p_final 56.1%; final edge +5.9 percentage points after required shrinkage.
- 87.5 receiving yards per game through six games, with 68 targets and 2.34 yards per route run.
- 97.0% route participation is the slate's strongest direct route signal among this candidate group.
- Expected lineup, not confirmed inactive clearance; late news could alter routes or game participation.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 4.5 receptions
2.15x47¢
+115% profit if it wins
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% profit over 112 picks
Why it likes it
- 5 of 6 2026 game logs cleared 4.5 receptions; season average is 5.33.
- 40 targets in six games equals 6.7 per game, with 0.789 season snap share and 146 routes.
- Detroit's current offense averages 59.2% pass rate and 2.97 points per drive.
- Minnesota's recent defense allowed -0.212 EPA per play, which can reduce Detroit's total drives.
T.J. Hockenson under 42.5 receiving yards
1.92x52¢
+92% profit if it wins
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% profit over 173 picks
Why it likes it
- Research score 78/100 (Grade B): Hockenson is a confirmed starter with a stable 79.5% route rate and 32 targets in six games.
- Hockenson's season average is 39.5 receiving yards; he stayed under 42.5 in 5 of 6 games and 4 of his last 5.
- Minnesota averages -0.0659 offensive EPA/play, 0.4241 success rate and 1.75 points per drive.
- Detroit's defense has positive recent EPA allowed (+0.0781/play), creating a favorable matchup for Hockenson's efficiency.
Jared Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns
1.74x57¢
+74% profit if it wins
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% profit over 173 picks
Why it likes it
- Research score 72/100 (Grade B): Goff is a confirmed starter with 223 attempts and 14 passing TDs in six games.
- Goff cleared 1.5 TDs in 5 of 6 games; his season average is 2.33 passing TDs per game.
- Detroit's offense averages 2.97 points per drive and carries a 0.1286 season offensive EPA/play.
- Minnesota's defense allows -0.2117 EPA/play recently and owns a 72.5 overall PFF grade.
Jahmyr Gibbs first touchdownLong shot
4.55x22¢
+355% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- Gibbs is the confirmed RB1 and Detroit's usage model labels him a workhorse at 78.9% snap share.
- Detroit averages 4.5 red-zone possessions and 3.17 red-zone scores per game; Gibbs has the clearest goal-line path.
- Detroit's +0.129 offensive EPA/play and 2.97 points/drive support more early scoring chances than Minnesota's 1.75.
- First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance; one opening-drive target or defensive score defeats the ticket.
Detroit Lions first touchdown
1.72x58¢
+72% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- Detroit averages 4.5 red-zone trips and 19 red-zone conversions in six games, versus Minnesota's 2.33 and 7.
- Detroit's +0.129 offensive EPA/play and 2.97 points per drive materially exceed Minnesota's -0.066 and 1.75.
- The home favorite's expected script supports an early Detroit possession and run emphasis around the goal line.
- First touchdown depends on opening kick/drive sequencing; the coin toss and scripted first possession are not verified.
Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions
1.79x56¢
+79% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 25% profit over 98 picks
Why it likes it
- L5: 4/5 under 6.5; L10: 8/10; season: 4/5.
- His current-season average is 4.6 receptions, 29.2% below the 6.5 threshold.
- The last meeting had Jefferson at four catches, but one H2H is thin and not independent evidence.
Jared Goff over 259.5 passing yards
1.90x53¢
+90% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 25% profit over 98 picks
Why it likes it
- L5: 5/5 over 259.5; L10: 8/10; season: 5/6.
- Recent L10 average is 299.1 yards, 15.3% above the 259.5 line.
- Minnesota's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.1567/play, a materially difficult matchup.
Game total over 45.5
1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
BETALAB 6.0Down 10% profit over 273 picks
Why it likes it
- Recent scoring averages are 47.8 combined points over five games; season scoring averages are 51.5 combined.
- Detroit’s recent offense is +0.1801 EPA/play with 3.116 points/drive; Detroit’s defense allows +0.1098 EPA/play.
- Research quality 78/100; grade B, supported by recent offense, points/drive, market price, and line protection at 45.5.
- Minnesota’s recent offense is -0.0856 EPA/play with only 1.52 points/drive, so Detroit could carry the game alone.
Jauan Jennings under 12.5 receiving yards
1.73x58¢
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
Why it likes it
- He stayed under 12.5 yards in four of those five games, with only three total targets in his latest outing.
- Detroit's +0.0781 defensive EPA-to-date mark indicates a softer matchup than the under case would prefer.
Under 23.5 first-half total
1.79x56¢
+79% profit if it wins
Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
Why it likes it
- 7 rest days each: no rest boost; the under is driven by Minnesota’s weak offense meeting Detroit’s much stronger opposing defense profile.
- DET/MIN PPD average is 2.3598; approximately 9.1 scripted first-half possessions gives 21.5 points before the Minnesota defensive adjustment.
- Pinnacle full-game total 46.0; possession-weighted first-half projection is about 21.5, not a flat 23.0.
- Detroit’s 28.42-second pace and .1288 PROE can manufacture explosive early possessions and break the under quickly.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 88.5 rushing yards
1.89x53¢
+89% profit if it wins
NFL Usage AdventureUp 2% profit over 109 picks
Why it likes it
- 23 carries and 104.3 rushing yards per game over his last three appearances.
- My 104.3-yard trailing baseline is 17.8% above 88.5; DraftKings offers -112.
- Minnesota's defense has allowed -0.2117 EPA per play to date and -0.2878 over its last three, a difficult matchup.
Minnesota Vikings 1Q to win
2.20x45¢
+120% profit if it wins
NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 9% profit over 33 picks
Why it likes it
- 0.149 average Detroit first-quarter EPA allowed per play over its last five games, above the -0.05 threshold.
- Minnesota and Detroit are NFC North rivals, supporting familiar scripted opening-drive execution.
- DraftKings offers +120 versus FanDuel +104 on Minnesota's 1Q moneyline.
- Minnesota averaged only 3.6 first-quarter points over its last five, below the 4.0 confirmation mark.
Detroit Lions −1.5 first half
1.91x52¢
+91% profit if it wins
NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 20% profit over 23 picks
Why it likes it
- Projected first-half margin: Detroit -2.75, 1.00 point beyond the naive full-game -3.5 halving.
- Jared Goff and Kyler Murray were confirmed starters; principal skill starters were confirmed active, and Ford Field is indoors.
- Minnesota's defense has allowed -0.2117 EPA/play to date, strong enough to disrupt Detroit's opening script.
Jahmyr Gibbs first touchdown scorerLong shot
4.30x23¢
+330% profit if it wins
NFL First-TD EdgeDown 41% profit over 25 picks
Why it likes it
- Gibbs has 38 red-zone rushing plays plus 8 receiving plays, 18 inside-10 plays, and 7 red-zone rushing TDs.
- RB1/workhorse role is verified: 78.9% offensive snap share, 141 run snaps, 146 route snaps; sportsbook lists him confirmed active.
- Detroit has converted 19 of 22 red-zone attempts into touchdowns through six games (86.4%).
- Minnesota's defense is excellent at -0.2117 EPA allowed per play, the clearest matchup obstacle.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 0.5 touchdownsFavorite
1.47x68¢
+47% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- 78.9% projected snap share and workhorse/RB1 role concentrate Detroit's backfield touchdown equity.
- Detroit averages 4.5 red-zone trips per game through six games; Gibbs is the expected lead back.
- Pacheco is on IR and lower-backfield usage is limited: Sione Vaki 23.5% snap share, Jacob Saylors 3.1%.
- Minnesota has allowed only 3 touchdowns on 13 opponent red-zone trips, a 29.2% conversion rate.
Minnesota Vikings +1.5
2.50x40¢
+150% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; the two core measures qualify the signal, while the third measure does not corroborate it.
- ProphetX is the sole reference: resting orders may be stale, canceled, concentrated, or unrelated to informed opinion.
Minnesota Vikings game spread +3
2.13x47¢
+113% profit if it wins
Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
Why it likes it
- Minnesota's current defense allows -0.2117 EPA/play versus Detroit's +0.0781 allowed; the matchup is closer than Detroit's home-offense profile suggests.
- Minnesota is 6-0 with a +8.5 average margin over its last six; Detroit is 4-2 with a +3.2 margin.
- Most likely path: Minnesota's defense keeps this within one score while its experienced expected skill group avoids a runaway.
- Most likely loss: Detroit creates an early lead and Minnesota's lower-efficiency offense cannot answer.
Minnesota Vikings +3
1.98x50¢
+98% profit if it wins
Number EarnedDown 7% profit over 2509 picks
Why it likes it
- Fair spread: Detroit -2.0; estimated Vikings cover probability 54%.
- Minnesota is 6-0 with +8.5 average margin; Detroit is 4-2 with +3.2.
- Vikings defense: -0.2117 EPA/play allowed versus Detroit's +0.0781; current-season six-game sample.
- Detroit's offense leads in EPA/play, 0.1286 to Minnesota's -0.0659, and success rate, 52.5% to 42.4%.