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Titans vs. BengalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPaycor Stadium
Titans1–6
36–43Final
Bengals4–2
Score by period
Team12345T
TEN130815036
CIN014913743

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chase Brown under 59.5 rushing yards −110

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: 23.2% shortfall: 88 yards on 33 carries versus 114.7 expected at his 2026 3.48 YPC.

NFL Regression RadarDown 5% this season · 72 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

50 picks from 39 models

  1. Tony Pollard over 15.5 rushing attempts3 models agree
    1.90x53¢

    +90% profit if it wins

    3 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Snap Share +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • Pollard's carries rose 14 → 19 → 25 over the last three games.
    • His snap share rose 47.6% → 76.1% → 74.6%; Tyjae Spears is now ruled out.
    • Tennessee is a 13.5-point underdog, creating a clear pass-heavy game-script risk.
    Snap Share
    • Pollard was confirmed active at 8:35 AM; RB1 and early-down hammer: 58.5% season snaps, 48.9% run-snap rate, 31.5% route participation.
    • Last three games: Week 5 47.6% snap share/14 routes/14 carries; Week 6 76.1%/10/19; Week 7 74.6%/12/25.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee trails Cincinnati by 13.5 points and shifts from Pollard carries to quarterback dropbacks, keeping him at 15 or fewer.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5: 3/5 over; L10: 6/10; 2026 season: 4/7 over 15.5 attempts.
    • L5 average is 18.2 attempts; season average is 16.0; role-adjusted forecast is 17.2.
    • Cincinnati’s PFF run-defense grade is 70.0; Pollard had 14 attempts last week.
  2. Tee Higgins over 70.5 receiving yards2 models agreeHigh conviction
    1.73x58¢

    +73% profit if it wins

    2 modelsJay Money PrizePicks Matrix, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    Why 2 models like it
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 102.4 receiving yards per game over his last five, 45.2% above the line.
    • Cleared 70.5 in four of five recent games; the lone miss was 22 yards.
    • The 22-yard outlier shows Higgins can disappear when target distribution shifts.
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • p_final 57.7%; final edge +7.3 percentage points after required shrinkage.
    • 95.2 receiving yards per game through six games, with 50 targets and 2.83 yards per route run.
    • Six-game sample can overstate efficiency, and explosive catches create a wide yardage distribution.
  3. Game total over 46.52 models agree
    2.04x49¢

    +104% profit if it wins

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • gmpm2 holds 88,050 Over 46.5 contracts on Polymarket global; direction is clearly attributable and unopposed in its current NFL position snapshot.
    • Polymarket US offers the identical Over 46.5 contract at 49¢; gmpm2's global average entry was 48¢, so deterioration is only 1¢.
    • The current price is worse than gmpm2's average entry, and the global market is around 49.5¢, leaving only a thin tailing margin.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Cincinnati's offense is +0.1576 EPA/play, while both defenses carry positive EPA-to-date figures allowed: Cincinnati +0.0475, Tennessee +0.0262.
    • Both teams are pass-heavy by PROE (+0.1686 Cincinnati, +0.0983 Tennessee), creating more scoring opportunities than a slow-game script implies.
    • Tennessee's offense is -0.1355 EPA/play with a 27.88-second pace, a major under signal.
  4. Game first-half total under 23.52 models agree
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • full-game 46.5 plus listed halves 23.5 and 21.5 sum to 45.0; the missing 1.5 points is consistent with a second-half scoring bump, making 1H 22.5 the fitted center.
    • Square-root scaling: with roughly half the possessions, first-half scoring variance scales by sqrt(1/2), not by linearly halving full-game variance; the resulting distribution favors the under at 23.5.
    • Cincinnati's 2.715 PPD is materially stronger than Tennessee's 1.443; an early Bengals short field or explosive play can beat 23.5 quickly.
    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)
    • 46-point full-game sharp total implies a 22.1-point first-half baseline at a 48% share
    • Recent first-drive scoring is modest overall: 5 scores in 13 combined team games
    • Cincinnati's 2.715 points per drive and Tennessee's pass-heavy early profile can lift first-half pace
  5. Cincinnati Bengals spread −12.52 models agree
    1.89x53¢

    +89% profit if it wins

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Cincinnati offense is +0.1576 EPA/play versus Tennessee's +0.0262 defensive EPA allowed; six 2026 games clear coverage.
    • Cincinnati's PFF card is 82.1 overall and 84.3 offense versus Tennessee at 64.1 and 64.5; both teams have seven rest days, non-neutral.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee stays inside 12.5 through a low-possession game, late backdoor scoring, or Cincinnati red-zone variance.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Cincinnati’s current-season offensive EPA/play is 0.1576 versus Tennessee’s -0.1355.
    • Recent margin form favors Cincinnati: +6.8 over six games versus Tennessee’s -6.9 over seven.
    • Cincinnati’s defensive EPA-to-date is 0.0475 versus Tennessee’s 0.0262, weakening the margin case.
  6. Game total under 46.52 models agree
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    2 modelsPace Ledger, Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Ledger
    • Tennessee averages 15.4 points through 7 games; Cincinnati averages 27.2 through 6, making the 46.5 threshold dependent on Cincinnati carrying the scoring load.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's 27.2-point offense plus Tennessee's fast pace creates enough explosive or short-field scores to clear 46.5.
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • Confirmed QBs: Cam Ward and Joe Burrow; no QB restriction is listed.
    • Current PPD is 4.158 combined: Cincinnati 2.715, Tennessee 1.443; matchup projection is about 43.7 points.
    • Cincinnati's offense is strong: 0.1576 EPA/play, 52.2% success, 12.3% explosive rate, and 2.715 points per drive.
Show all 43 picks
  1. Cincinnati Bengals spread −7.5High conviction
    1.59x63¢

    +59% profit if it wins

    Sunday LedgerUp 21% profit over 100 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati leads current form in EPA/play (+0.158 vs Tennessee -0.136), success rate (.522 vs .429), explosive rate (.123 vs .090), and PPD (2.72 vs 1.44).
    • Titans WR1 Carnell Tate is out after an 82.4% snap-share season; Bengals have seven days rest and no QB injury flag.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee stays within 7.5 through a late backdoor score, especially if Cincinnati protects a lead.
  2. Chase Brown under 59.5 rushing yardsHigh conviction
    1.91x52¢

    +91% profit if it wins

    NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 23.2% shortfall: 88 yards on 33 carries versus 114.7 expected at his 2026 3.48 YPC.
    • 71.3% average snap share across the last three games; each game cleared the 55% opportunity gate.
    • Confirmed starter and workhorse usage make the underperformance actionable rather than a role-loss fade.
    • An 11-carry recent average creates substantial long-run variance.
  3. Cincinnati Bengals exact margin 1-6Long shot
    5.56x18¢

    +456% profit if it wins

    Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main spread is Cincinnati -13.5 at -105/-105, anchoring the smooth margin distribution.
    • After reweighting the spread-centered baseline to the empirical 1-6 magnitude mass of 39.9%, Cincinnati 1-6 estimates to 24.6%.
    • The 1-6 bucket contains key numbers 3, 4 and 6; generic exact-margin smoothing can underweight that clustered scoring mass.
    • The 2,867-game histogram is unconditional across teams; translating it to this specific -13.5 matchup is the main model uncertainty.
  4. Over total 52.5Long shot
    3.33x30¢

    +233% profit if it wins

    Sunday LedgerUp 21% profit over 100 picks
  5. Tennessee Titans first-half spread +6.5
    2.38x42¢

    +138% profit if it wins

    Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: Cincinnati 7 days, Tennessee 7; no short-week edge.
    • EPA gap: Cincinnati offense +0.1576 versus Tennessee -0.1355, a +0.2931 differential; success rate is .5216 versus .4291.
    • PPD gap: Cincinnati 2.7152 versus Tennessee 1.4430; pace is 30.73 versus 27.88 seconds per play.
    • No rest mismatch removes the brief’s strongest first-half lever.
  6. Cincinnati Bengals spread −13.5
    1.92x52¢

    +92% profit if it wins

    DriftUp 1% profit over 535 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Joe Burrow and Cam Ward are confirmed starters; Cincinnati's top skill starters are confirmed active after inactives posted.
    • Exact-rung reference uses three books because Pinnacle is at -14: devigged median is 51.1% from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetOnline.
    • Movement favors the rating: the same-rung home-cover trace opened about 48.9% and is now about 51.1%, a 2.2-point move toward Cincinnati.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's stronger defensive EPA profile and a low-scoring game keep Cincinnati from clearing 14 points.
  7. Tennessee Titans +13.5
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 22% profit over 22 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Luck scores: Tennessee -0.302 vs Cincinnati +0.333; difference -0.635 qualifies.
    • Primary luck: Tennessee -0.373 vs Cincinnati -0.023; difference -0.350 qualifies.
    • Cincinnati defensive red-zone luck is +2.460 SD: opponents converted 35.0% despite a +0.056 defensive EPA/play.
    • Cincinnati's underlying offense is much stronger: +0.150 EPA/play and 52.0% success versus Tennessee's -0.135 and 43.0%.
  8. Tennessee Titans first-half spread +7.5
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati's +0.1576 offensive EPA and 2.715 points/drive face Tennessee's -0.1355 offensive EPA and 1.443 points/drive; the fitted margin is roughly 6–7 points.
    • First-half margin variance scales with the square root of expected drives, not linearly with half the game; that widens the underdog's tail enough to favor +7.5.
    • The warehouse has no first-half margin histogram; full-game key-number mass may not transfer because late-game scoring dynamics are different.
  9. Cincinnati Bengals first-half spread under 6.5
    2.27x44¢

    +127% profit if it wins

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Up 2% profit over 35 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread is Bengals -13.5, only 0.5 points from the captured -13 opener
    • First-half margin SD of about 9 makes a 6.75-point mean close to a coin flip, not a 57% over outcome
    • Joe Burrow is projected rather than officially confirmed two hours before kickoff
  10. Cam Ward under 192.5 passing yards
    1.84x54¢

    +84% profit if it wins

    Shoulders of GiantsUp 1% profit over 45 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pass: TEN OL pass-block 71.6 vs CIN pass-rush defense 76.4; matchup grade 71.7, 12.3% win rate, 113 pressures.
    • Mechanism confirms pressure concern: Ward averages 2.86 seconds to throw, while Tennessee has allowed 6 sacks.
    • Ward averages 168.4 passing yards on 29.7 attempts; Tennessee owns a 57.4% pass rate and +9.8% PROE.
    • No depth-chart starters are on file; Tennessee's exact starting OL remains unverified before kickoff.
  11. Cincinnati Bengals spread −15
    2.22x45¢

    +122% profit if it wins

    ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game factors favor Cincinnati: +0.1576 vs -0.1355 offensive EPA/play, .5216 vs .4291 success, .1226 vs .0902 explosive rate, and 2.715 vs 1.443 points/drive.
    • Both QBs are confirmed active starters; Cincinnati WR1 Ja'Marr Chase is active, while Tennessee WR1 Carnell Tate is inactive.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati wins by 1-14 points or Tennessee wins outright; -15 has no ordinary cover protection.
  12. Cincinnati Bengals −10.5
    1.69x59¢

    +69% profit if it wins

    Comfortable MarginDown 32% profit over 14 picks
    Why it likes it
    • my key-number-adjusted margin distribution gives Cincinnati -10.5 a 64% win chance.
    • Polymarket US displayed 58¢, with a 59¢ grading price; the 5-point gap meets this desk's raised DERIVED-REFERENCE bar.
    • Cincinnati's to-date edge is +0.293 EPA/play, +9.3 percentage points success rate, and +1.27 points/drive.
    • High hit rate is not profit: 59¢ only works if the 64% estimate survives fees and model error.
  13. Cincinnati Bengals over 28.5 team points
    1.79x56¢

    +79% profit if it wins

    One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Tier RECOMMENDED; edge class PROJECTION with INTERNAL COHERENCE support; venue self-reference.
    • Bengals offense is +0.1576 EPA/play with 2.715 points per drive across six games; Titans defense allows +0.0262 EPA/play.
    • Bengals pace is 30.73 seconds/play, and their 22 red-zone trips have produced 14 scores (63.6%).
    • No depth-chart starters are posted; Cincinnati has multiple listed offensive absences, including Erick All Jr. and Andrei Iosivas.
  14. Cincinnati Bengals over 27.5 team points
    1.69x59¢

    +69% profit if it wins

    One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE; SHARP REFERENCE: Cincinnati's +0.1576 offensive EPA/play and 2.715 points/drive meet a Titans defense allowing +0.0262 EPA/play.
    • My offense-vs-defense fit is approximately 29–30 Cincinnati points, above the 27.5 threshold.
    • The captured board shows 46 total and -12.5 spread; arithmetic implies roughly 29.25 Bengals points, while the Bengals team total is only 27.5.
    • Cincinnati averaged 27.17 points through six games; this needs at least 28, so ordinary scoring variance matters.
  15. Cincinnati Bengals win by 15 or more
    2.33x43¢

    +133% profit if it wins

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 16% profit over 43 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five EPA matchup differential is +0.287/play; Cincinnati offense is +0.1309 EPA/play versus Tennessee −0.1491.
    • Season EPA blend centers the Bengals margin near 18.5, roughly 5 points above the −13.5 market spread.
    • Key-number adjustment explicitly concentrates mass at 3, 6, 7, and 10; the resulting Bengals 15+ probability is 61% versus Polymarket US 43c.
    • Cincinnati's defense allowed +0.0284 EPA/play over the last five and +0.0475 for the season, leaving room for Tennessee to land in the 7-14 bucket.
  16. Chase Brown under 17.7 fantasy points
    1.64x61¢

    +64% profit if it wins

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorDown 19% profit over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 12.8 PPR points per game across six 2026 games, well below the 17.7 threshold.
    • Only two of six recent game logs cleared 17.7 fantasy points.
    • Stable RB1 role at 71.1% offensive snaps, but the line needs a touchdown-plus production game.
    • Cincinnati is a 13-point favorite, creating blowout and goal-line touchdown upside.
  17. Game under 53.5
    1.83x55¢

    +83% profit if it wins

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterDown 13% profit over 56 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 13-0 Titans with 2:22 left in Q1; Cincinnati has 18 yards and an interception.
    • Tennessee’s pregame last-five profile was -0.135 offensive EPA/play and 1.44 points per drive; the lead favors runs.
    • Cincinnati’s pass rush grade is 71.7 with 113 pressures; Under 53.5 at -120 improves on the 52.5 alternative.
    • Cam Ward already has 109 passing yards on 14 attempts; one explosive Titans drive can erase the cushion.
  18. Cincinnati Bengals −12.5
    1.89x53¢

    +89% profit if it wins

    Pigskin PeteDown 18% profit over 43 picks
    Why it likes it
    • +0.2774 recent offensive EPA/play gap: Cincinnati +0.1576, Tennessee -0.1198 over six games.
    • Cincinnati leads recent success rate .5216-.4306 and points per drive 2.715-1.517.
    • Joe Burrow's tracked last-six CPOE averages about +4.8 points versus Cam Ward's last-six -2.6; both expected QB1s lack a QB injury designation.
    • Cincinnati has defensive uncertainty: Kyle Dugger is out, while B.J. Hill and Dexter Lawrence missed Friday practice.
  19. Cam Ward under 190.5 passing yards
    1.83x55¢

    +83% profit if it wins

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% profit over 112 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Season average is 168.4 passing yards across seven games; only one exceeded 190.5.
    • Ward stayed under this number in four of his last five, averaging 171.2 yards.
    • Cam Ward is confirmed active, and Fliff's -120 is below my 64% win estimate; Pinnacle also posts a nearby under at -119 on 192.5.
    • A likely negative game script could force Ward into elevated pass attempts; his season high is 222 yards.
  20. Tennessee Titans spread +13.5
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    NFL HunterV2Down 12% profit over 96 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 56.2% Monte Carlo cover probability versus 51.0% FanDuel break-even: +5.2 points.
    • Cincinnati's current-season offense is strong (+0.1576 EPA/play), but Tennessee's adjusted matchup projection keeps the median margin below two touchdowns.
    • Bengals are 4-2 with +6.8 recent margin; Titans are 1-6 with -6.9, already reflected in the 13.5-point number rather than ignored.
    • Tennessee's offense has produced only 15.4 points per game and -0.1355 EPA/play this season, creating substantial backdoor-cover risk if it cannot sustain drives.
  21. Cam Ward under 191.5 passing yards
    1.90x53¢

    +90% profit if it wins

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% profit over 173 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 171.2 passing yards per game over Ward's last five starts, 10.6% below the 191.5 line.
    • Ward stayed under 191.5 in 6 of 7 2026 starts; his season average is 168.4 with no pushes.
    • Cincinnati's last-10 defense allowed -0.0614 EPA/play; Ward is confirmed to start at 8:35 AM PST.
    • Cincinnati's full-season defensive EPA allowed is +0.0475/play, weaker than its recent 10-game mark.
  22. Cincinnati Bengals −13.5
    1.93x52¢

    +93% profit if it wins

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 34% profit over 54 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati strategy score +0.105 vs Tennessee -0.720: 0.825 standardized-score edge.
    • Primary EPA score +0.215 vs Tennessee -0.459: 0.674 edge, clearing both required thresholds.
    • Offensive pass EPA: Cincinnati +1.399 z vs Tennessee -1.596 z.
    • Current-season sample is only six Bengals and seven Titans games; early-season estimates are noisy.
  23. Cincinnati Bengals first touchdownFavorite
    1.43x70¢

    +43% profit if it wins

    PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION / venue self-reference: Cincinnati has a 14/22 red-zone TD rate this season.
    • Tennessee has allowed 15 TDs on 25 opponent red-zone trips (60.0%).
    • Cincinnati leads the matchup in offensive EPA: +0.1576/play versus Tennessee’s -0.1355.
    • First touchdown is highly variant: opening-kick result and scripted first-drive tendencies are unverified.
  24. Chase Brown over 0.5 touchdowns
    1.75x57¢

    +75% profit if it wins

    PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
    Why it likes it
    • venue self-reference: Chase Brown is the expected Cincinnati RB1 with a 71.1% season snap share and workhorse label.
    • Cincinnati has 22 red-zone attempts and 14 conversions through six games; Tennessee opponents have converted 15 of 25 red-zone trips.
    • Cincinnati is a heavy home favorite with a +0.293 offensive EPA/play matchup edge; positive script should concentrate goal-line work on the lead back.
    • Expected, not confirmed: official inactives have not posted, so late availability news could change the role.
  25. Over 41.5 total pointsFavorite
    1.52x66¢

    +52% profit if it wins

    Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 3-3; the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing supplies two of three measures.
    • Directional coherence: backing Over 41.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels on each side.
  26. Cincinnati Bengals −13
    1.92x52¢

    +92% profit if it wins

    Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence: backing Cincinnati Bengals -13, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels on each side.
  27. Tony Pollard over 64.5 rushing yards
    1.73x58¢

    +73% profit if it wins

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 75.8 rushing yards per game over his last five, 17.5% above the posted line.
    • Reached 14 or more carries in each of his last five games, averaging 18.2.
    • Cincinnati ranks eighth-most EPA allowed defensively at +0.048 per play.
    • He cleared the line in only three of the last five; recent average is lifted by a 129-yard game.
  28. Game total under 38.5Long shot
    10.00x10¢

    +900% profit if it wins

    Chain MoversUp 75% profit over 46 picks
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE, Tier 2: Pinnacle is Over 53 -106 / Under 53 -110; 38.5 is 14.5 points below that central reference.
    • This is a far-tail projection, not a central-total read; the lower tail is materially less certain than the 53-point anchor.
  29. First-half total under 23.5 points
    1.96x51¢

    +96% profit if it wins

    Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
    Why it likes it
    • both teams have 7 rest days; Pinnacle's independent full-game total is 46.0.
    • PPD cross-check: CIN 2.7152 plus TEN 1.4430 gives 18.7 points across nine average-efficiency drives before a modest script adjustment; midpoint remains about 21.
    • CIN leads offense EPA/play 0.1576 to TEN -0.1355 and success rate .5216 to .4291, supporting Cincinnati control while Tennessee's scoring baseline suppresses the total.
    • Equal 7-day rest removes the brief's strongest lever; this is a PPD/EPA projection, not a rest mismatch.
  30. Cincinnati Bengals spread −10
    1.89x53¢

    +89% profit if it wins

    CLV Sharp ATSUp 1% profit over 21 picks
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings -10 is 0.5 points better than the -10.5 consensus and captures key number 10.
    • Full-season net EPA/play: Cincinnati +0.110, Tennessee -0.162; a rough 60-play conversion implies a 16.3-point margin, about 5.8 beyond consensus.
    • Season success rate also favors Cincinnati, 52.2% to Tennessee's 42.9%.
    • Week 8 injury/inactive reports are not posted yet; Burrow and Ward appear as QB1 in recent usage data but neither is confirmed active for Sunday.
  31. Cincinnati Bengals to winFavorite
    1.11x90¢

    +11% profit if it wins

    Brewing NFL MlDown 5% profit over 63 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati leads point-in-time offense EPA/play 0.1576 to Tennessee -0.1355.
    • Joe Burrow's PFF passing grade is 89.5 versus Cam Ward's 70.5; both QBs are confirmed starters.
    • Recent form favors Cincinnati: +6.8 average margin over six games versus Tennessee -6.9 over seven.
    • -900 leaves little margin; a 93.5% estimate still loses roughly once every 15 games.
  32. Wan'Dale Robinson under 48.5 receiving yards
    1.88x53¢

    +88% profit if it wins

    NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 15.3% four-game shortfall: 101 yards on 25 targets versus 119.2 expected at his 4.77 season yards per target.
    • 64.5% average snap share across the last three games; all three cleared the 55% opportunity gate.
    • Confirmed starter with six-to-seven targets recently, but weak conversion has not yet been fully repriced.
    • The four-game gap only marginally clears the required 15% threshold.
  33. Cincinnati Bengals −7.5
    2.00x50¢

    +100% profit if it wins

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 20% profit over 23 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati leads season offense EPA/play 0.158 to Tennessee's -0.136; success rate edge is 52.2% to 42.9%.
    • Points per drive is 2.72 for Cincinnati versus 1.44 for Tennessee, a 1.27-point possession-quality gap.
    • Both quarterbacks and skill-position starters are confirmed active; Cincinnati's Chase-Higgins-Burrow group is intact while Tennessee has Carnell Tate and Tyjae Spears out.
    • No direct coin-toss/second-half kickoff recipient is confirmed, so the possession-shift adjustment is only approximate.
  34. Game total under 41.5
    2.70x37¢

    +170% profit if it wins

    Key Number PairsDown 7% profit over 98 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Tennessee owns -0.1355 offensive EPA/play to date and -0.1491 across its last five games; recent scoring totals average 37.4.
    • Cincinnati's offense is +0.1576 EPA/play to date and averaged 2.68 points per drive in its recent five-game window.
  35. Total points under 45.5
    2.08x48¢

    +108% profit if it wins

    Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
    Why it likes it
    • NO REFERENCE — no same-line sharp confirmation.
    • Regular-season scoring averages are Cincinnati 27.17 and Tennessee 15.43, a 42.60 combined baseline versus 45.5.
    • Tennessee owns -0.1355 offensive EPA/play, 42.9% success and 1.443 points/drive across seven regular-season games.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati creates short fields or explosive scores while Tennessee adds enough late points to reach 46.
  36. Tennessee Titans under 45.5 total points
    1.95x51¢

    +95% profit if it wins

    Number EarnedDown 7% profit over 2509 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 43.5; modeled win probability 55% versus DraftKings break-even near 51.2%.
    • Titans average 15.4 points scored and 22.3 allowed through seven games; offense is -0.1355 EPA/play in the PIT feature row.
    • Recent combined scoring profile points toward roughly 43 points, below the DK 45.5 number.
    • Cincinnati's 0.1576 offensive EPA/play and 0.1226 explosive-play rate can clear the total largely by itself.
  37. Tennessee Titans to win
    2.50x40¢

    +150% profit if it wins

    Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
    Why it likes it
    • NO REFERENCE — the live read is contrarian to the sharp Cincinnati price.
    • Tennessee leads 10-0 at 3:06 of Q1; Titans live offense is +0.506 EPA/play over 14 plays, while Cincinnati is -0.780 over six.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's stronger pregame profile—+0.158 season offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.135—recovers after the tiny opening sample.

Win chance, start to finish

50%CINTENKickoff
Nov 1Final

Questions

Who won Titans vs. Bengals?

The Bengals won 43–36 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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