Falcons vs. BuccaneersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium

Falcons3–4

0–16Final

Buccaneers2–5

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	0	0	0	0	0
TB	6	3	7	0	16

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chris Godwin under 40.5 receiving yards −112

Why +EV Volume Handicapper likes it: 6 of Godwin's 7 games stayed under 40.5 yards; he averages 34.7 yards.

+EV Volume HandicapperDown 9% this season · 256 picks

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How the picks did

52 picks from 40 models

Atlanta Falcons to win7 models agree
2.10x48¢
+110% profit if it wins
7 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Inactives Parity +5
Why 7 models like it
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
- Atlanta's 2026 PFF team grade is 81.3 versus Tampa Bay's 70.2.
- Recent EPA/play favors Atlanta: offense -0.0239 versus -0.0773; defense -0.1025 versus -0.0705.
- Atlanta is on the road and Brian Robinson is ruled out; Olamide Zaccheaus and other Falcons remain questionable.
Inactives Parity
- Egbuka leads Tampa Bay with 49 targets and ranks second in receiving yards (240); official inactive at 8:34 AM PT.
- Pinnacle's pregame home -2.5 implied 55% Tampa Bay after devigging; a 1.5-point WR adjustment moves this near pick'em.
- Egbuka's replacement production may reduce the true adjustment below 1.5 points.
BETALAB 6.0
- Falcons lead the PIT matrix in offense EPA/play (0.0009 vs -0.0093), success rate (49.2% vs 47.5%), explosiveness (10.9% vs 9.0%), and points/drive (2.112 vs 1.930).
- PFF team grade is 81.3 for Atlanta versus 70.2 for Tampa Bay; defensive EPA is nearly even (-0.0532 vs -0.0511).
- Atlanta has no confirmed depth-chart starters posted; the Falcons quarterback situation is a load-bearing uncertainty.
Resting Money
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so two measures support the signal: thin at quote plus deeper total demand; raw thin-side stake exceeds the few-hundred-dollar durability rule.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the direction: Atlanta 3, Tampa Bay 3.
Bucky Irving over 16.5 rushing attempts3 models agree
1.87x53¢
+87% profit if it wins
3 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM +1
Why 3 models like it
NFL Usage Adventure
- 21.3 carries per game over his last three: 24, 19, and 21.
- The 16.5 line is 77% of Irving's three-game carry average, below the brief's 85% pricing threshold.
- Kenny Gainwell is questionable but had 14 carries last week, creating real workload-split risk.
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
- Research grade B (74/100): confirmed starter at 8:37 AM PST with no injury designation.
- 2026 season: 120 carries in 7 games (17.1 per game); over 16.5 in 5 of 7.
- Atlanta's recent defense has allowed -0.1025 EPA per play over the last 10-game window.
Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
- 3/5 L5, 6/10 L10, and 4/7 in 2026 cleared 16.5 rushing attempts.
- L5 average is 19.0 attempts, 15.2% above the line; Irving is a confirmed RB1 workhorse at 64.3% snaps.
- Irving is 0/4 over 16.5 in the H2H sample: 16, 14, 9, and 9 attempts.
Atlanta Falcons spread +2.53 models agree
1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
3 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home +1
Why 3 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs
- Seven completed 2026 games clear the coverage gate; Atlanta's offense is +0.0009 EPA/play versus Tampa Bay's -0.0511 defensive EPA allowed, while Tampa Bay's offense is -0.0093 versus Atlanta's -0.0532 defense.
- The matchup differential is modestly Atlanta-positive (+0.0081 EPA/play); Atlanta also leads the latest PFF card 81.3–70.2 overall, 74.1–62.2 on offense, and 74.3–70.1 on defense.
- Most likely loss: Tampa Bay's home-field advantage and a one-score game push the margin past 2.5 despite the small efficiency edge.
Long Way Home
- Atlanta's to-date offense is +0.0009 EPA/play versus Tampa Bay's -0.0093.
- Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE; the model read is a competitive Falcons game, not a runaway Tampa result.
- Tampa Bay winning by 3-7 is the single most likely loss path for this spread.
Number Earned
- Own cover probability 56%; fair spread approximately Atlanta +1.0.
- Atlanta leads current-season offense EPA/play (-0.024 vs Tampa Bay -0.077), success rate (.473 vs .437), and explosiveness (.103 vs .075).
- Atlanta has no posted depth-chart starters in the live feed; quarterback and inactive confirmation remain incomplete.
Chris Godwin under 40.5 receiving yards2 models agreeHigh conviction
1.89x53¢
+89% profit if it wins
2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
Why 2 models like it
+EV Volume Handicapper
- 6 of Godwin's 7 games stayed under 40.5 yards; he averages 34.7 yards.
- Atlanta's defense is allowing -0.053 EPA/play; Tampa Bay averages only 1.93 points/drive.
- One explosive catch or six-reception game can clear 40.5 despite the low recent average.
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
- Research grade B (70/100): confirmed starter at 8:37 AM PST; no injury designation on the current game-day lineup.
- 2026 season average is 34.7 receiving yards (243 in 7 games) against a 40.5-yard line.
- Tampa's Emeka Egbuka is out, potentially concentrating targets on Godwin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win2 models agree
1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Pigskin Pete
Why 2 models like it
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
- Official starters are not on file; 18 Falcons and 12 Buccaneers are listed out, with several questionables.
Pigskin Pete
- Recent six-game defensive EPA favors Tampa Bay, -0.1082 allowed per play versus Atlanta's -0.0062.
- Tampa Bay's home moneyline is -130 across DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle; sharp-market fair probability is 55.2%.
- Atlanta leads the recent six-game offensive EPA comparison, 0.0364 to Tampa Bay's -0.0347, with better success and explosiveness rates.
Drake London over 77.5 receiving yards2 models agree
1.90x53¢
+90% profit if it wins
2 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, Early Down
Why 2 models like it
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
- p_final 55.4%; final edge +5.6 percentage points after required shrinkage.
- 88.0 receiving yards per game through seven games, with 57 targets and 3.03 yards per route run.
- Expected lineup, not confirmed inactive clearance; a late status or snap change erases the usage assumption.
Early Down
- London played 80.6%–100% of snaps over his last three games and ran 33–44 routes each week.
- He averaged 82 receiving yards on 10 targets per game over those three contests; the line is 77.5.
- This is an early-week lean, not a recommendation: re-check after the injury report and opponent game plan are known.

Show all 39 picks

Atlanta Falcons spread 2.5High conviction
2.38x42¢
+138% profit if it wins
Key NumberUp 19% profit over 110 picks
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle main spread: Atlanta +2.5 -110 / Tampa Bay -2.5 +100; devigged Atlanta cover probability is 51.2%, versus 42c Kalshi.
- Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins outright or by 1-2 points; this half-point contract has no push protection.
Drake London over 78.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
1.91x52¢
+91% profit if it wins
NFL Regression RadarDown 5% profit over 72 picks
Why it likes it
- Last 3 games: 31 targets (11, 10, 10) with 93.0% average snap share.
- Season baseline: 57 targets and 616 yards, or 10.81 yards per target.
- London is confirmed active and starting by the live sportsbook participant feed.
- Recent actual output is only 82.0 yards per game, so the line is close to that short sample's mean.
Atlanta Falcons exact margin 7-14Long shot
8.33x12¢
+733% profit if it wins
Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's main spread is Tampa Bay -2.5, anchoring a home-margin baseline near +2.5.
- The bucket contains three key numbers—7, 10, and 14—where generic tail smoothing can underweight football's lumpy scoring arithmetic.
- The sharp anchor favors Tampa Bay, so this is a contrarian underdog tail; the key-number reweight is the specific reason to override that direction.
Over total 47.5
2.78x36¢
+178% profit if it wins
Sunday LedgerUp 21% profit over 100 picks
First-half total under 21.5
1.56x64¢
+56% profit if it wins
Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
Why it likes it
- Rest is even at 7 days each; no short-week fatigue signal inflates the opening script.
- 3 points are scored with roughly 20 minutes left; 19+ additional points are needed to beat 21.5.
- Combined points-per-drive baseline is 4.04; pace is similar at 31.1 Atlanta and 31.5 Tampa seconds per play.
- A fast Tampa possession or Atlanta explosive play can produce the 19 remaining points quickly.
Atlanta Falcons first team to score points
1.85x54¢
+85% profit if it wins
Draw FirstUp 39% profit over 37 picks
Why it likes it
- ATL opening possessions scored 6 of 24 (25.0%); Tampa Bay scored 14 of 24 (58.3%).
- With an unresolved 50/50 kickoff prior, estimated ATL-first probability is 25.8%; no-ATL is about 74.2%.
- The valid first-score team YES quotes sum to 1.18: Tampa Bay 0.61 plus Atlanta 0.57, identifying structural overpricing.
- Opening kickoff is unconfirmed; ATL-first estimates range from 36.4% if Atlanta receives to 15.2% if Tampa Bay receives.
Game 1Q total under 8.5
1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's live 1Q total is 7.5, with Under -124; that lower rung supports Under 8.5.
- Atlanta (2.112) and Tampa Bay (1.930) season-to-date points per drive, plus 31.5/31.1 seconds per play, fit a 61% Under-8.5 estimate.
- Both quarterbacks are confirmed active starters: Michael Penix Jr. and Baker Mayfield.
- Only roughly 5-6 combined possessions: one explosive play, turnover, or short field can reach 9 points quickly.
Over 43 total
1.96x51¢
+96% profit if it wins
DriftUp 1% profit over 535 picks
Why it likes it
- Power rating: 53.5% over; seven-game scoring averages combine for 47.57 points (ATL 24.43, TB 23.14) against 43.
- Both offenses are near-neutral by EPA (ATL +0.0009/play, TB -0.0093) with success rates of 49.2% and 47.5%.
- Most likely loss: both defenses allow about -0.05 EPA/play, suppressing scoring below 43.
Kyle Pitts anytime touchdownLong shot
4.30x23¢
+330% profit if it wins
TD Value Model – DraftKingsUp 6% profit over 68 picks
Why it likes it
- DK +330 implies a 23.3% break-even rate; my regressed scenario estimate is 26%.
- Pitts has 4 receiving TDs on 27 targets through seven games; he is confirmed active and starting.
- His 153 routes and 58.2% snap share support a live scoring role, though not a dominant one.
- Four TDs on 27 targets is a small, unusually efficient sample; touchdown regression could erase the estimated edge.
Atlanta Falcons second-half spread +1.5
1.85x54¢
+85% profit if it wins
Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
Why it likes it
- 2.112 Atlanta PPD versus 1.930 Tampa Bay PPD over seven completed games; efficiency is near-even.
- Atlanta’s +0.001 offensive EPA/play and Tampa’s -0.009 are not consistent with a large second-half disadvantage.
- At 3-0 live, the full-game Tampa -4.5 anchor leaves roughly 1.5 points for Tampa over the remaining half; Polymarket US sells Atlanta +1.5 at 54c.
- The 2H distribution is conditioned on the halftime score and game script; to-date averages do not model that state directly.
Game total under 22.5 first half
1.82x55¢
+82% profit if it wins
Half MeasureDown 1% profit over 11 picks
Why it likes it
- Novig's 22.5 first-half line is 1.43 points above that projection, clearing the 1.0-point threshold.
- Atlanta and Tampa Bay each averaged 11.5 first-half points scored over their last six; Tampa allowed 8.0.
- Official inactives are not posted; Tampa RT Luke Goedeke is Questionable and Atlanta has unconfirmed offensive-line availability.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread −3.5
2.50x40¢
+150% profit if it wins
ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
Why it likes it
- Neutral model ledger after Atlanta’s efficiency edge offsets Tampa Bay home-field and defensive edges: p_model 41.4%; EV_anchor +3.5%, EV_model +3.5%.
- Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins by 1–3 points or Atlanta wins outright; -3.5 has no push protection.
Jahan Dotson over 2.5 receptions
2.48x40¢
+148% profit if it wins
Snap ShareDown 3% profit over 38 picks
Why it likes it
- Confirmed WR2 starter at 8:35 AM; the ESPN-live inactive list posted and Dotson is active for Atlanta.
- Last three games: 65.6%/30, 85.5%/41, and 55.2%/27 snap share/routes; season role is WR2 with 67.5% snaps and 185 routes.
- Atlanta averaged 65, 50, and 66 plays with approximately 37.4, 37.5, and 36.2 pass plays in Weeks 5-7; project 37 pass plays, 6.0 targets, and 2.6 receptions.
- Most likely loss: Dotson retains the routes but repeats his recent 2, 3, 1 reception sequence and finishes at two or fewer.
Total points under 43
2.00x50¢
+100% profit if it wins
Sunday Board PairsDown 3% profit over 176 picks
Why it likes it
- seven-game 2026 sample: Atlanta offense is +0.0009 EPA/play and Tampa Bay is -0.0093; both defenses are strong at -0.0532 and -0.0511 EPA/play allowed.
- Pace supports fewer possessions: Atlanta 31.4829 and Tampa Bay 31.1057 seconds per play; PROE is modest at +0.0478 and +0.0389.
- Latest 2026 PFF team card has Atlanta defense 74.3 and Tampa Bay defense 70.1; both teams have seven rest days in a non-neutral game.
- Most likely loss: an explosive pass, short-field turnover, or defensive touchdown breaks the low-possession script.
Atlanta Falcons team total under 19.5
1.64x61¢
+64% profit if it wins
One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
Why it likes it
- Atlanta’s season offense EPA/play is 0.0009 versus Tampa Bay’s defense at -0.0511; matchup baseline is below 19.5.
- Live check: Atlanta has 40 yards, -1.1454 EPA/play, 21.4% success, and 0 points through 13 plays.
- Rain, 76% precipitation, and 20-mph gusts further suppress Atlanta’s pass-sensitive offense; it has 0 red-zone trips.
- Only 13 live plays and three drives; Atlanta can regress sharply toward its pregame efficiency.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers team total under 20.5
2.33x43¢
+133% profit if it wins
One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
Why it likes it
- RECOMMENDED · PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE · VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
- Tampa Bay averaged 17.0 points across four 2026 regular-season home games; its home offensive EPA/play was -0.128.
- Atlanta's road defense allowed 19.3 points per game in three regular-season road games; Tampa's home pace was 28.3 seconds per play.
- Tampa scored 43 last week, and one efficiency rebound can clear 20.5 despite the home baseline.
Game total over 43.5
2.04x49¢
+104% profit if it wins
Key Number PairsDown 7% profit over 98 picks
Why it likes it
- Recent combined scoring is 48.5 points per game across both teams' last five-game windows.
- Both offenses have positive PROE (+0.0478 Atlanta, +0.0389 Tampa Bay); combined points per drive is 4.04 and the feature pace is 31.48/31.11 seconds per play.
- QB1 depth-chart slots are current for Michael Penix Jr. and Baker Mayfield; neither is listed Out/Doubtful for this game.
- Most likely loss path is a 40–43-point game, especially if Tampa Bay's recent -0.1221 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Atlanta.
Atlanta Falcons win by 7 to 14Long shot
6.67x15¢
+567% profit if it wins
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 16% profit over 43 picks
Why it likes it
- L5 EPA averages: Atlanta offense +0.1150/play vs Tampa Bay -0.0246; Atlanta defense allowed -0.0274 vs Tampa Bay -0.1221.
- EPA matchup blend centers Atlanta near a 6-point win versus Tampa Bay -2.5, an approximately 8.5-point divergence.
- Key-number adjustment adds mass at 7 and 10; the Atlanta 7-to-14 band captures both central NFL clusters.
- Season-to-date EPA is nearly even and points toward Tampa Bay after home field; the large L5 signal may regress.
Michael Penix Jr. 2+ passing touchdownsFavorite
1.52x66¢
+52% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- Polymarket US quotes the NO side at 66¢ with both sides quoted and tradable.
- Penix has 0 passing TDs on 6 attempts with 2 interceptions at Q1 4:10; Atlanta has 40 yards and 0 red-zone trips.
- Bijan Robinson is confirmed and carries a workhorse label with 71.1% usage share; goal-line concentration is derived from this role and the 6-carry start.
- The live sample is only 6 attempts; one short-field or red-zone drive could quickly reverse the read.
Bijan Robinson first touchdownLong shot
5.00x20¢
+400% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- Bijan is Atlanta's confirmed RB1 and workhorse at a 71.1% snap share.
- Brian Robinson is confirmed out, removing the next backfield option ahead of Bijan.
- Atlanta has converted 14 of 21 red-zone trips this season; Bijan's goal-line role is derived from RB1 status, snap share, and backfield availability.
- First-touchdown markets are inherently high variance; one receiver or quarterback sneak can win the race.
Bucky Irving over 0.5 touchdowns
2.04x49¢
+104% profit if it wins
PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
Why it likes it
- Polymarket US quotes Yes at 49¢ with No at 52¢; both sides are live and tradable.
- RB1 workhorse role: 64.3% snap share, 41.8% run-snap rate, 49.1% route participation, and room rank 1.
- Tampa Bay has generated 23 red-zone attempts and 12 conversions through seven games; Atlanta has allowed 26 and 18.
- Atlanta's defense has allowed 18 red-zone conversions, but Tampa Bay converted only 12 of its 23 own chances.
Cade Otton under 3.5 receptions
1.93x52¢
+93% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 25% profit over 98 picks
Why it likes it
- 4/5 L5, 6/10 L10, and 5/7 in 2026 were under 3.5 receptions.
- Last-three line: 0, 1, 3 receptions; L5 average is 2.2 versus 3.5.
- Otton is a confirmed starter with 93.9% snaps; PFF has 0.85 YPRR and 19 catches on 30 targets.
- Emeka Egbuka is inactive, potentially redirecting Tampa Bay targets toward Otton.
Chris Godwin receiving yards under 41.5
1.73x58¢
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
Why it likes it
- 31.4 receiving yards per game over his last five, 24% below the 41.5 line.
- Atlanta's pregame defensive EPA is -0.0532; Tampa Bay's offensive EPA is -0.0093.
- Godwin is a confirmed starter, so the prop clears the availability gate.
- Emeka Egbuka is out, concentrating targets onto Godwin and raising his opportunity share.
Game total under 23.5Long shot
10.00x10¢
+900% profit if it wins
Chain MoversUp 75% profit over 46 picks
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION, Tier 2: derived mean 35.5 points with 10.8-point SD from pace/PROE, PPD, and live-game inputs.
- Sharp reference: Pinnacle moved from 43 to 41; 23.5 is 17.5 points below that central anchor, inside the desk's tail hunt.
- 20 mph gusts and 76% precipitation compress explosive passing outcomes; directionally supports the low-total tail without an invented weather adjustment.
- This is a far-tail projection, and the model is materially less reliable 17.5 points from the sharp center.
Game total under 26.5Long shot
14.29x7¢
+1329% profit if it wins
Chain MoversUp 75% profit over 46 picks
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION, Tier 2: season/last-five pace, PROE and points-per-drive inputs produce a blended mean near 43.5 points; 2026 NFL total SD is 14.1.
- This is a 17-point downside tail from the 43.0 Pinnacle center; central pace/PROE inputs are less reliable in this wing.
Atlanta Falcons spread +2
2.00x50¢
+100% profit if it wins
ProphetX PairsDown 5% profit over 1664 picks
Why it likes it
- Atlanta leads Tampa Bay in current-season offense EPA/play (+0.0009 vs -0.0093), success rate (.4921 vs .4752), and explosive rate (.1085 vs .0895).
- Atlanta's defense is also slightly better by EPA allowed (-0.0532 vs -0.0511); rest is even at seven days.
- The efficiency snapshot is computed through October 25, so one week of information is stale.
Josiah Trotter over 9.5 tackles + assists
2.00x50¢
+100% profit if it wins
NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelUp 20% profit over 12 picks
Why it likes it
- Negative Binomial projection: 10.6 tackles + assists, 1.1 above Novig's 9.5 line.
- Trotter averaged 10.3 total tackles across six 2026 games: 10, 12, 7, 9, 13, 11.
- Defensive snap baseline is 91.9%, with only 7.6 percentage-point standard deviation.
- Only six-game sample; just three of six cleared 9.5, while one finished at 7 and one at 9.
Atlanta Falcons first-half winner
2.38x42¢
+138% profit if it wins
Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
Why it likes it
- Tampa Bay's 2026 margin is +1.57 versus Atlanta's -0.29; the full-game board is only Tampa Bay -2.5.
- Full-game signed home-margin SD is 14.10; square-root scaling gives an estimated half SD of 9.97, not a linear half-SD.
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; Atlanta first-half +2.5 is 54c while the full-game anchor is Tampa Bay -2.5, limiting Tampa Bay's halftime separation.
- The 1H margin can swing on one turnover, short field, or explosive play; the fitted edge is only about 3 probability points.
Game first-half total over 20.5
1.89x53¢
+89% profit if it wins
Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
Why it likes it
- Full-game Polymarket US total is 43.5 while the active 1H rung is 20.5; the nearly untraded 2H 20.5 leaves a 2.5-point reconciliation gap.
- I assign that mismatch to the stale 2H quote: a normal late-game scoring bump anchors 2H closer to 22.5 and supports 1H output above 20.5.
- Falcons/Bucs season-to-date points per drive are 2.112 and 1.930, with similar pace at 31.5 and 31.1 seconds per play.
- Both teams have multiple listed outs and no confirmed depth-chart starters; late personnel news could reduce pace or red-zone efficiency.
Chris Godwin over 39.5 receiving yards
1.88x53¢
+88% profit if it wins
Second WindUp 4% profit over 37 picks
Why it likes it
- 49 targets in six games for Emeka Egbuka, now Out with a foot injury.
- Godwin averaged 31.0 routes and 84.1% snap share over Weeks 5-7.
- Godwin has 27 catches for 243 yards through seven games; FanDuel's 39.5 is three yards below DraftKings' 42.5.
- Godwin's 34.7-yard season average is still below 39.5.
Game total under 43.5
1.92x52¢
+92% profit if it wins
Pace LedgerDown 6% profit over 58 picks
Why it likes it
- 43.5 exceeds ProphetX team totals 22.5 + 20.5 by 0.5.
- 43.5 exceeds 2 × ProphetX first-half total 21.5 by 0.5.
- Game-day lineups are confirmed; Penix and Mayfield are active, with the board timestamped before kickoff.
- Most likely loss: positive PROE and adequate pace produce enough explosive scoring to clear 43.5.
Total points under 38.5
1.75x57¢
+75% profit if it wins
Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
Why it likes it
- under 38.5 is -129, effectively the same price as under 37.5 at -130, buying an extra point.
- Pregame context was low-scoring: Tampa Bay and Atlanta posted offensive EPA/play of -0.009 and +0.001, with defensive EPA allowed of -0.051 and -0.053.
- Live score is only 6-0 with 2:16 left in Q1; two early field-goal possessions produced six points rather than touchdowns.
- A first-quarter turnover or short-field sequence can accelerate scoring; 33 or more remaining points loses this under.
Under 43.5 total points
1.85x54¢
+85% profit if it wins
Number EarnedDown 7% profit over 2509 picks
Why it likes it
- Own under probability 55.5%; fair total approximately 41.5 points.
- Both current-season defenses are efficient: Atlanta -0.102 defensive EPA/play and Tampa Bay -0.070.
- Combined current-season points per drive are only 3.73; season scoring averages are below the posted 43.5 total.
- Atlanta's last five games averaged 31 points scored and Tampa Bay's averaged 23.2, a higher recent baseline.