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Raiders vs. JetsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMetLife Stadium
Raiders3–4
38–33Final
Jets2–5
Score by period
Team1234T
LV77141038
NYJ6177333

Top model pick, graded

Won

Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 75¢

Why House Rules likes it: Raiders +7.5 wins at a Jets margin of exactly 7; Raiders +7 only pushes.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1400 picks
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How the picks did

55 picks from 38 models

  1. Las Vegas Raiders to win7 models agree
    2.17x46¢

    +117% profit if it wins

    7 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Drift +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • The Jets have the stronger current team grade, 75.0 overall versus 66.4 for Las Vegas.
      Drift
      • Raiders average +0.0083 offensive EPA/play and 26.1 PPG; Jets average -0.0548 EPA/play and 19.6 PPG.
      • Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith are both confirmed starters; each team has seven days of rest.
      • Most likely loss: Jets' stronger defense (-0.0248 defensive EPA/play versus Raiders +0.0217) and home field suppress the Raiders offense.
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Seven-game 2026 sample: Raiders offense +0.0083 EPA/play versus Jets defense -0.0248; Jets offense -0.0548 versus Raiders defense +0.0217, a +0.1096 matchup gap for Las Vegas.
      • Pace supports more Raiders possessions: Las Vegas 28.82 seconds/play versus New York 31.50; PROE is +0.1285 Raiders and +0.0938 Jets.
      • Most likely loss: New York's home field and stronger PFF card—75.0 overall, 64.0 defense versus Las Vegas at 66.4 and 52.6—overcome the EPA mismatch.
      Resting Money
      • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures support the configuration; the thin-side quote stake is well above a few hundred dollars.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
    • Brock Bowers over 69.5 receiving yards4 models agree
      1.88x53¢

      +88% profit if it wins

      4 modelsEarly Down, NFL Sharp Edge +2
      Why 4 models like it
      Early Down
      • 70.0% → 98.5% → 83.8% snap share; route participation rose from 30 to 46 to 48.
      • Bowers posted 110, 70, and 73 receiving yards over the last three games: 84.3-yard average and 3-for-3 over this line.
      • Bowers is projected to start and practiced fully Friday, but the injury report is not final; a practice absence or availability change invalidates this read.
      NFL Sharp Edge
      • 455 yards in five games: 91.0 per game versus a 69.5-yard Fliff line.
      • Bowers has cleared 69.5 yards in all five 2026 appearances, with 51 targets.
      • Five-game sample is thin, and perfect over history is vulnerable to regression.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • Bowers cleared 69.5 yards in all 5 of his 2026 regular-season games: 73, 70, 110, 86, and 116.
      • He has 51 targets and 455 receiving yards in 5 games, averaging 10.2 targets and 91.0 yards.
      • The five-game hit streak is a thin sample and can regress sharply on a 69.5-yard line.
      Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
      • 91.0 receiving yards per game over his last five versus the 69.5 line, a 30.9% gap.
      • Bowers cleared 69.5 in all five games; targets climbed from 8 to 13 across the span.
      • The Jets have allowed negative 0.0248 defensive EPA per play, a real matchup headwind.
    • Kirk Cousins over 231.5 passing yards3 models agree
      1.90x53¢

      +90% profit if it wins

      3 modelsNFL HunterV2, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
      Why 3 models like it
      NFL HunterV2
      • Model win probability 63.5% versus roughly 52.6% break-even at DraftKings -111.
      • Cousins cleared 231.5 yards in 6 of 7 games; season mean is 268.1 yards.
      • New York's recent 10-game defensive EPA allowed rate is -0.0647, a legitimate matchup counterweight.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • 6 straight 2026 regular-season games above 231.5 yards; 268.1-yard season average.
      • 231.5 is 36.6 yards below Cousins' season average on 257 attempts.
      • Jets' season defense has a negative -0.025 EPA allowed/play and could suppress efficiency.
      Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
      • 5/5 over 231.5 in L5; 6/10 in L10; 6/7 this season.
      • 268.1-yard current-season average is 36.6 above the line (+15.8% directional gap).
      • L10 mixes seven Raiders games with three prior Falcons games after an offseason team change.
    • Las Vegas Raiders +1.53 models agree
      2.00x50¢

      +100% profit if it wins

      3 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Resting Money +1
      Why 3 models like it
      BETALAB 6.0
      • Raiders: +0.0083 offensive EPA/play and 2.312 points/drive versus Jets -0.0548 and 1.929.
      • Breece Hall officially inactive; Jets lose a 57.5% recent RB snap-share contributor, while Dylan Parham is active.
      • Jets have the stronger PFF team grade, 75.0 to 66.4, and the better defense EPA profile.
      Resting Money
      • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core thin-plus-deep pairing supplies two of three measures; thin-side availability is above the few-hundred-dollar robustness rule.
      • Book-level count is neutral rather than supportive: 3 levels on each side.
      Bills Belichicks
      • +1.5 at -105; Raiders are the qualifying underdog.
      • Kubiak career SU 3-4 (42.9%) versus Glenn 5-19 (20.8%), a 22.1-point coaching-record edge.
      • Jets hold the better defensive EPA profile (-0.0248 versus Raiders +0.0217).
    • Las Vegas Raiders first-half winner2 models agree
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
      Why 2 models like it
      Locker Room
      • Own conditional estimate is 69%, sixteen probability points above the 53¢ venue price.
      • Raiders season offense is +0.008 EPA/play versus Jets -0.055; matchup inputs favor Las Vegas.
      • Seven points came early; one Jets touchdown or turnover can erase the lead before halftime.
      Split Decision
      • rest gap is 0 days: Raiders 7, Jets 7; neither side has the scripted-prep rest lever.
      • EPA matchup gap is +0.1096/play for Las Vegas: LV offense-vs-NYJ defense +0.0331, reverse matchup -0.0765.
      • No rest edge: equal seven-day preparation leaves the projection dependent on EPA-to-date sample quality.
    • Las Vegas Raiders spread +1.52 models agree
      2.04x49¢

      +104% profit if it wins

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Seven-game sample: Raiders offense +0.0083 EPA/play versus Jets defense -0.0248; Jets offense -0.0548 versus Raiders defense +0.0217, a +0.1096-play matchup gap for Las Vegas.
      • Possession context favors Las Vegas: Raiders pace is 28.8229 seconds/play versus New York's 31.4986; PROE is +0.1285 versus +0.0938.
      • Most likely loss: New York wins at home by two or more, turning the efficiency edge into a narrow Raiders cover miss.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Raiders' current-season offense is +0.063 EPA/play better than the Jets' offense (0.0083 vs -0.0548).
      • Matchup-adjusted EPA favors Las Vegas by roughly 0.110/play before home-field adjustment.
      • Jets' defense has the better current EPA profile (-0.0248 versus Las Vegas +0.0217), a 0.0465/play counterweight.
    Show all 39 picks
    1. Brock Bowers over 5.5 receptions2 models agree
      1.65x61¢

      +65% profit if it wins

      2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
      Why 2 models like it
      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
      • 4 of 5 regular-season games cleared 5.5; 34 receptions equals 6.8 per game.
      • Bowers is confirmed active and starting; full participation was reported Friday.
      • Kirk Cousins could distribute more work to Tre Tucker or Ashton Jeanty.
      Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
      • 4/5 over 5.5 in L5; 7/10 in L10; 4/5 this season.
      • Bowers averages 6.8 receptions in his current-season games, 1.3 above the line (+23.6% directional gap).
      • The L10 includes five prior-season games; only the current five reflect this year's role and quarterback.
    2. Quay Walker under 8.5 tackles + assistsHigh conviction
      1.67x60¢

      +67% profit if it wins

      NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelUp 20% profit over 12 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Model win probability 72%, about 1.5–1.6 tackles below the 8.5 line.
      • Quay has played 95.8%–100% of defensive snaps in every 2026 charted game; seven-game snap-share standard deviation is about 1.6 percentage points.
      • He is Active and a confirmed starter; Nakobe Dean is also confirmed, with no unresolved same-level questionable linebacker.
      • Seven-game sample includes a 12-tackle outlier last week; negative-binomial tails remain material.
    3. Las Vegas Raiders exact margin 7-14Long shot
      5.88x17¢

      +488% profit if it wins

      Exact ChangeUp 92% profit over 90 picks
      Why it likes it
      • live Pinnacle has Raiders -2.5 at -114 versus Jets +2.5 at -102; devigged Raiders cover probability is about 51%.
      • The 7-14 bucket contains three high-frequency scoring margins: 7, 10 and 14; generic smoothing can blur that clustered mass.
      • Live score is Raiders 7, Jets 3 with 4:14 left in Q1, consistent with the sharp-reference direction.
      • Any final margin outside 7-14 loses, including a Raiders win by 3 or 6 and every Jets result.
    4. Las Vegas Raiders +7.5FavoriteHigh conviction
      1.33x75¢

      +33% profit if it wins

      House RulesDown 3% profit over 1400 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Raiders +7.5 wins at a Jets margin of exactly 7; Raiders +7 only pushes.
      • Exact home margin +7 occurred 118 of 2,637 NFL games, a 4.475% historical mass (2016-25).
      • Historical 2016-25 margin mass is league-wide, not matchup-specific.
    5. Second half ends levelLong shot
      14.29x7¢

      +1329% profit if it wins

      Level TermsUp 76% profit over 53 picks
      Why it likes it
      • exact period identity is tested on five live contracts.
      • Direct 2H draw YES is 0.07, a five-point contradiction with the handicap-implied draw.
      • 2024-25 sample: 544 games per quarter; quarter ties ranged from 18.6% to 24.3%.
      • Six placeholder spread rungs were excluded from 34 screened; the remaining ladder was monotone.
    6. Fourth quarter ends levelLong shot
      7.14x14¢

      +614% profit if it wins

      Level TermsUp 76% profit over 53 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 4Q Raiders +0.5 at 0.60 minus Raiders -0.5 at 0.38 implies a 0.22 draw probability.
      • The 4Q winner legs are Raiders 0.43, Jets 0.45, draw 0.14; exclusive-set sum is 1.02, not far from 1.00.
      • Quote-integrity screen: 8 contracts screened for this 4Q identity, 0 excluded; the +0.5/-0.5 ladder is monotone.
      • The three-leg sum is 1.02 rather than exact, leaving a 2-point consistency residual.
    7. New York Jets spread +2.5
      1.67x60¢

      +67% profit if it wins

      Sunday LedgerUp 21% profit over 100 picks
      Why it likes it
      • The rung is 3.5 points from Pinnacle's -1 main line, inside the seven-point ladder limit; both sides were OPEN, tradable and quoted at the final check.
      • Most likely loss: the Raiders win by 3 or more; Jets +2.50 fails on a three-point Raiders victory.
    8. Over total 47.5
      2.17x46¢

      +117% profit if it wins

      Key NumberUp 19% profit over 110 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Full coverage: Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are current QB1s, both teams have seven current-season games, and the 2,867-game key-number mass was computed; EV_anchor +1.3%, EV_model +4.6%, gap 1.5 points, RECOMMENDED Tier 2.
      • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 47 points or fewer as New York's stronger defensive EPA and a slow Jets pace suppress scoring.
    9. First-half total over 21.5 points
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Rest gap 0 days: Raiders 7, Jets 7; both scripts receive a normal preparation week.
      • Combined PPD is 4.2411 (LV 2.3124, NYJ 1.9287), anchored to the 46.5 sharp full-game total.
      • 46.5 ÷ 2.1206 average PPD implies 21.92 team-drives; 5.48 each yields 23.24 first-half points.
      • Jets offense is -0.0548 EPA/play and LV defense is +0.0217 allowed, which can suppress the Raiders matchup.
    10. Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 first-half spread
      1.79x56¢

      +79% profit if it wins

      Split DecisionUp 8% profit over 199 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Rest gap 0 days: Raiders 7, Jets 7; neither side carries a short-week penalty.
      • Matchup EPA: LV offense vs NYJ defense +0.0331/play; NYJ offense vs LV defense -0.0765/play.
      • PPD gap is +0.3837 for LV (2.3124 vs 1.9287); the derived first-half mean favors LV.
      • Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are expected, not confirmed, before inactives; a late QB change invalidates the read.
    11. Game 1Q total over 9.5
      2.08x48¢

      +108% profit if it wins

      Opening DriveUp 24% profit over 46 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Season points per drive are 2.31 for LV and 1.93 for NYJ; LV offense EPA is +0.008 versus NYJ -0.055.
      • Projection edge class: PROJECTION; venue self-reference only, with no external sharp quarter-total quote used.
      • Quarter markets average roughly 5-6 combined possessions, so I require wider separation; this 9-point gap clears that bar.
      • The opening script is unknowable in detail even with both QBs confirmed active; a conservative first drive can kill the over.
    12. Game under 23.5 first-half total
      1.82x55¢

      +82% profit if it wins

      Locker RoomUp 1% profit over 218 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; named edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE plus PROJECTION.
      • Full-game total is 46.5 while both half anchors are 23.5; the usual late scoring bump favors a lower first-half expectation.
      • Jets offense is -0.0548 EPA/play; Raiders defense allows +0.0217 EPA/play, pointing to a less efficient opening.
      • Breece Hall is confirmed inactive; several Raiders and Jets starters remain unconfirmed, creating offensive uncertainty.
    13. Mason Taylor over 22.5 receiving yards
      1.88x53¢

      +88% profit if it wins

      NFL Usage AdventureUp 2% profit over 109 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 39.7 receiving yards per game over Weeks 5-7, against a 22.5-yard line.
      • Raiders carry a poor 31.1 PFF coverage grade and allowed +0.1499 defensive EPA/play in their last five.
      • Mason remains in a shared tight-end room, so a route-share drop is plausible.
    14. Brock Bowers over 68.5 receiving yards
      1.88x53¢

      +88% profit if it wins

      Target Quality YardsUp 8% profit over 28 picks
      Why it likes it
      • PFF REGPO, 5 games: depth-weighted aDOT 11.0 yards; deep-plus-medium targets rose to 60.4% from 30.1% in 2025.
      • NGS REG, last 4 qualifying games: intended air yards averaged 11.1 and separation 2.34 yards, rising from 1.63 to 2.45.
      • 2.31 YPRR, 84.1 pass-route grade and 90.0% route rate; the role supports quality downfield routes.
      • Bowers' exact Jets coverage assignment is unresolved; primary CBs are Brandon Stephens 69.1 and Azareye'h Thomas 67.2, so I cap this at 0.75u.
    15. Ashton Jeanty under 49.5 rushing yards
      1.88x53¢

      +88% profit if it wins

      Shoulders of GiantsUp 1% profit over 45 picks
      Why it likes it
      • LV's 54.5 run-block grade faces NYJ's 68.3 run-defense grade; matchup data also rates NYJ run defense 60.0.
      • Those four games produced 56, 58, 27, and 22 rushing yards; the two recent lows support a sub-50 projection.
      • Jeanty is confirmed and owns a 69.9% season snap share, while LV's slight-underdog script can trim carries.
      • Jackson Powers-Johnson is questionable and the full LV starting line is not posted, leaving the season run-block grade partly unverified.
    16. Game total over 21.5
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Half MeasureDown 1% profit over 11 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Projection 22.8 first-half points from Pinnacle's 46.5 full-game total × 0.49; +1.3 points over Novig's 21.5.
      • Raiders' defense allowed 15.3 first-half points per game over its last six (92 total).
      • Both sides of the 21.5 ladder are live, stakes exceed $200, and the ladder is monotonic; wind is forecast at 3 mph.
      • Raiders and Jets averaged only 10.8 and 5.7 first-half points scored over their last six games.
    17. Over 47.5 total points
      2.17x46¢

      +117% profit if it wins

      ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Seven regular-season games each: Raiders 0.0083 offensive EPA/play and 2.31 PPD; both teams have positive PROE, supporting a modest upward total adjustment.
      • Most likely loss: 47 points or fewer; one stalled red zone drive or turnover swing defeats the modest total edge.
    18. New York Jets spread −1.5
      1.96x51¢

      +96% profit if it wins

      ProphetX NFL LadderDown 1% profit over 101 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jets defensive EPA allowed -0.0248 vs Raiders +0.0217; success .4757 vs .4466; ledger adds 0.5 Jets margin points.
      • Most likely loss: Jets win by exactly one point or lose outright; -1.5 has no push protection.
    19. Tre Tucker over 3.5 receptions
      1.83x55¢

      +83% profit if it wins

      Snap ShareDown 3% profit over 38 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Role is confirmed: WR1, 75.0%/34 routes, 69.7%/39, and 82.4%/48 snap share/routes in Weeks 5-7.
      • Pecking order is stable: Tucker is the Raiders' WR1 with a 68.5% season snap share across all 7 games.
      • Most likely loss: Tucker keeps the routes but converts only three receptions despite adequate opportunity.
    20. New York Jets spread −3.5
      2.50x40¢

      +150% profit if it wins

      Key RungDown 8% profit over 13 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle -119/+108 at NYJ -1.0 de-vigs to 53.1% Jets cover probability.
      • Moving from -1.0 to -3.5 crosses the 3 margin; subtracting its 9% mass gives 44.1% fair.
      • Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith are confirmed QBs after inactives posted at 8:40/8:37 AM PT.
      • Key-number mass is an approximate table, not a full margin-distribution model.
    21. New York Jets under 23.5 team points
      1.92x52¢

      +92% profit if it wins

      One ColumnDown 5% profit over 121 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jets offense EPA-to-date is -0.0548 versus Raiders defensive EPA allowed of +0.0217; matchup estimate centers near 19–20 points.
      • Jets home points-per-drive is 1.797, with 19.67 home points per game; both trail the 23.5 threshold.
      • The board looks spread-split-ish: NYJ 23.5 plus LV 21.5 sums to 45 versus a 46.5 game total and tracks the -1.5 spread, supporting a modest low-scoring coherence signal.
      • Raiders defense allows +0.0217 EPA/play to date, a favorable matchup for an otherwise inefficient Jets offense.
    22. Brock Bowers under 96.5 receiving yards
      1.83x55¢

      +83% profit if it wins

      Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterDown 13% profit over 56 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Live state: Raiders lead 7-3 at 4:50 Q1; Bowers has 2-35-1 on 3 targets, but 61.5 more yards are needed.
      • Season baseline: 455 yards on 51 targets across five games, or 91.0 yards per game before this live spike.
      • Bowers owns an 84.1 PFF route grade and 2.31 yards per route; the efficiency supports production but not another 62 yards.
      • Bowers already owns 3 of 5 Raiders pass attempts and a touchdown; another explosive catch can break the under.
    23. Michael Mayer over 26.5 receiving yards
      1.92x52¢

      +92% profit if it wins

      NFL HunterV2Down 12% profit over 96 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Model win probability 61.5% versus roughly 52.2% break-even at DraftKings -109.
      • Mayer exceeded 26.5 yards in 5 of 7 games, averaging 42.6 yards this season.
      • He has 13 targets and 129 yards across the last three games, a 43.0-yard average.
      • Brock Bowers is also confirmed and healthy, creating direct competition for tight-end targets.
    24. Ashton Jeanty under 13.5 rushing attempts
      1.90x53¢

      +90% profit if it wins

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% profit over 173 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jeanty averaged 12.4 attempts over his last five regular-season games; under 13.5 hit 3 of 5.
      • Jets season defense is positive for the matchup at -0.0248 EPA allowed per play.
      • Own probability 58% versus 52.6% break-even at -111; research score 69/100, Grade B.
      • Full-season workload is 15.1 attempts per game across seven regular-season games.
    25. New York Jets −1.5
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      NFL Spread DetectiveDown 34% profit over 54 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jets EPA Strategy Score -0.0236 vs Raiders -0.5429: +0.5193 EPA edge clears the 0.50 trigger.
      • Jets Primary EPA Score -0.1395 vs Raiders -0.3877: +0.2482 clears the 0.20 trigger.
      • Jets defensive explosive-play component +0.8786 versus Raiders -0.4306.
      • The full EPA edge clears its threshold by only 0.0193; the primary edge clears by 0.0482.
    26. Ashton Jeanty 1+ touchdown
      2.04x49¢

      +104% profit if it wins

      PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 106 carries and 44 targets through seven games; his 4 total TDs show concentrated scoring opportunity.
      • Workhorse role with 69.9% snap share and 59.5% route participation; no player ahead of him is unresolved.
      • Las Vegas has 28 red-zone trips; Jeanty is the clear backfield focal point in goal-line packages.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineup status remains inactives risk before kickoff.
    27. Kirk Cousins over 20.5 completions
      1.83x55¢

      +83% profit if it wins

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 25% profit over 98 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 4/5 over 20.5 in L5; 6/10 in L10; 5/7 this season.
      • Cousins averages 23.0 completions this season, 2.5 above the line (+12.2% directional gap).
      • He has completed 19+ passes in every game and has 33+ attempts in four of his last five.
      • The L10 includes three prior Atlanta games, so the sample is not fully role-comparable after his team change.
    28. Game total under 47
      1.89x53¢

      +89% profit if it wins

      Resting MoneyDown 3% profit over 1226 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Directional check: backing under 47, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it — leg matches.
      • The book-level count does not corroborate the direction: 3 levels on each side.
    29. Omar Cooper Jr. over 41.5 receiving yards
      1.73x58¢

      +73% profit if it wins

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 7% profit over 627 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Omar Cooper Jr. averaged 82.7 yards in his three games versus a 41.5 line, a 99.3% gap.
      • He has 218 yards on 12 targets across his last two games, including 103 and 115 yards.
      • Las Vegas's defense has posted positive 0.0217 EPA per play, a favorable matchup signal for a Jets receiver.
      • The sample is only three games; his first game was 30 yards on one target.
    30. Game total under 46.5
      1.96x51¢

      +96% profit if it wins

      Pace LedgerDown 6% profit over 58 picks
      Why it likes it
      • full-game 46.5 is 0.5 above the 22.5 + 23.5 team-total sum.
      • Most likely loss: the Raiders' fast pace and positive PROE produce enough efficient drives to reach 47 points.
    31. Game total under 41.5
      2.70x37¢

      +170% profit if it wins

      Key Number PairsDown 7% profit over 98 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Jets offense is -0.0548 EPA/play to date; Raiders offense is only +0.0083, while Jets defense allows -0.0248 EPA/play.
      • Both teams’ 2026 game-feature pace inputs are slow-to-moderate: Jets 31.50 seconds/play and Raiders 28.82.
      • This needs 41 or fewer points; one explosive touchdown sequence or short-field turnover can beat the low rung.
    32. New York Jets first touchdown
      2.22x45¢

      +122% profit if it wins

      PaydirtDown 9% profit over 217 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Las Vegas has allowed 22 opponent red-zone touchdowns on 28 trips, a 78.6% defensive red-zone TD rate.
      • New York has reached the red zone 20 times; the matchup's defensive allowance lifts its 45% season conversion baseline.
      • My usage/matchup estimate is 50%, a modest five-point gap over the venue price.
      • New York's offense has negative -0.0548 EPA to date versus Las Vegas at +0.0083, so efficiency offsets the defensive edge.
    33. Las Vegas Raiders game spread +1.5
      2.00x50¢

      +100% profit if it wins

      Long Way HomeDown 4% profit over 3700 picks
      Why it likes it
      • NO REFERENCE — Pinnacle's -1 spread is off-line, not same-line confirmation.
      • Raiders offense posts +0.0083 EPA/play and 2.312 points/drive versus Jets -0.0548 and 1.929.
      • Jets are 1-4 in their last five; Raiders' stronger offensive efficiency supports a 53% cover estimate despite road status.
      • Most likely loss: New York's stronger defense and .4757 success rate suppresses Las Vegas, producing a Jets win by 2 or more.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%NYJLVKickoff
    Nov 1Final

    Questions

    Who won Raiders vs. Jets?

    The Raiders won 38–33 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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