FinalStadio Olimpico · Roma
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PARM | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LAZI | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonParma +1.5 60¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Lazio's Gattuso is projected to retain a 4-3-3, while Gilardino's Parma uses a compact 3-5-2.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-9 on this game · −38% return
- Parma +10%Push
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsStanding Order, Deep Book - Draw−100%Lost
Taken at +340 on FanDuel
xG Draw DeskDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 25.5% adjusted draw probability: Lazio 1.42 xG vs Parma 1.14, only 0.28 goals apart.
- Opponent-adjusted xG coverage clears the gate: nine supported matches for each team, with Lazio 1.35 for/1.33 against and Parma 0.95 for/1.49 against.
- Current Serie A draw rate is only 16.9% across 71 matches, a negative prior, but the controlled 2.56 expected-goal total supports a draw more than the environment alone.
- Both XIs and goalkeepers remain expected rather than officially confirmed; a late keeper or striker change can erase the edge.
- Parma +1.5+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lazio's Gattuso is projected to retain a 4-3-3, while Gilardino's Parma uses a compact 3-5-2.
- The five-man midfield and three-center-back shape is built to limit Lazio's width and turn a likely home win into a one-goal game.
- Warehouse model makes Lazio only a 49.2% outright winner; that supports protection on Parma rather than chasing the favorite.
- Parma's projected XI is not official and its preview allows several changes.
- Match under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted rate blend sets Lazio at 1.42 and Parma at 1.14 goals; total 2.56 implies about 53% under 2.5.
- Kalshi's liquid 2.5 rung has 503.49 contracts traded and a one-cent YES spread; buying NO is 50¢.
- The opponent-adjusted blend is less bearish than the model pair, leaving only a modest consensus edge.
- Total goals over 2.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
ParallaxDown 60% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live +106/-121 total prices devig to 47.0% for over 2.5.
- The 8.5-point gap from Kalshi's 38.5¢ mid to Pinnacle's 47.0% is inside the 4, 12 point target zone.
- Kalshi history moved from about 51.5¢ an hour earlier to 38.5¢, widening rather than closing the disagreement.
- The match is already live, so this is an in-play claim rather than the intended pre-kickoff read.
- Parma Calcio wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION.
- Scaled lambdas are Lazio 0.68 and Parma 0.43; Dixon-Coles rho -0.05 gives Parma 19.8%.
- Kalshi prices Parma 1H at 12.5¢ mid versus 11.5¢ full-time mid, an internal consistency violation.
- Parma must lead after 45 minutes; 0-0 and one-goal Lazio leads lose.
Show all 14 picks
- Lazio spread NO above 1.5 goals+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Oppadj inputs: Lazio attack 1.35 / Parma defense 1.49; Parma attack 0.95 / Lazio defense 1.33.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed; Lazio has six rest days versus Parma's five, and absences may alter the goal distribution.
- Parma Calcio wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Lazio and away is Parma; model key 0-1 maps to “Parma Calcio wins 1-0.”
- Coverage is sound: 9 xG matches on each side; live-subset mid-price sum is 0.78.
- The expected lineups are dated 10/22, not confirmed; Lazio has 4 listed outs and Parma 3.
- Match total goals under 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 39' and 0-0, a simple remaining-time projection is about 1.45 goals; under 1.5 wins on 0 or 1 remaining goals, my estimate 57%.
- Two goals in the remaining roughly 51 minutes loses; live soccer tails are wide.
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Match total under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model gives under 2.5 goals a 56.4% probability against a 49¢ Polymarket US take price.
- Expected-goal lambdas total 2.42 (Lazio 1.48, Parma 0.94), supporting a lower-scoring distribution.
- Lazio's and Parma's recent 10-match rolling shots-on-target averages are only 4.44 and 3.22, respectively.
- The four-match head-to-head sample averages 2.75 goals and has 75% both-teams-scored, a direct warning against the under.
- Parma to win−100%Lost
Taken at +700 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas are Lazio 1.48, Parma 0.94, with full form, xG, ratings, and model coverage present.
- Lazio have four expected-lineup absences listed, while Parma have three; the expected XI is current to 11:01am PT.
- Pinnacle's sharp three-way market strongly disagrees, pricing Parma at +721 and modeling only about 11.2% fair probability.
- Both Teams To Score+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Per-side scoring reads: Lazio 75.9% from 1.35 opp-adjusted xGF and Parma 1.51 xGA; Parma 68.2% from 0.95 and Lazio 1.38.
- The 51.8% combination assumes scoring independence and a Poisson-style conversion from xG; match dependence can break it.
- Parma moneyline +650−100%Lost
Taken at +650 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 23.3% own win estimate from PIT xG model; +650 breaks even at only 13.3%.
- Underlying lambdas are 1.48 Lazio and 0.94 Parma; model gives Lazio 49.2%, draw 27.5%, Parma 23.3%.
- PIT opponent-adjusted xG is Lazio 1.35 for / 1.33 against versus Parma 0.95 / 1.49.
- Parma's away form is poor: 3-1-6 with 7 goals for and 15 against in ten away matches.
Questions
Who won Parma vs. Lazio?
Lazio won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.