FinalStadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| INT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFiorentina spread +1.5 52¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-3 on this game · +25% return
- Over 2.5 Total Goals+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Two NilWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- Opponent-adjusted xG: Inter 2.88 for / 1.35 against; Fiorentina 1.40 for / 1.28 against; xG coverage is 10 and 9 matches.
- dc_rho -0.05; the model's four-goal center leaves Over 2.5 above the venue's price.
- Expected, not confirmed XIs: Inter's projection is dated 10/23 and Fiorentina's 10/22; a late striker or goalkeeper change can move the lambdas.
Two Nil- Opp-adjusted xG gives Inter 2.08 (2.88 home xGF, 1.28 Fiorentina away xGA) and Fiorentina 1.37 (1.40 away xGF, 1.35 Inter home xGA): projected total 3.45.
- Kalshi ladder implies approximately 3.5 goals overall: 3.43 from listed cumulative mids through Over 5.5, before the unlisted tail above 5.5.
- The thinner side has only 9 xG matches, below the 12-match top tier; model disagreement must be treated cautiously.
- Both teams to score+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Inter and Fiorentina combine for 4.01 rolling xG per match; model coverage is complete with nine minimum xG games.
- no sharp BTTS probability was posted, but the main total moved from 3.25 to 3.5 and Kalshi Over 2.5 rose from 47.5¢ to 50.5¢, supporting goals.
- BTTS loses if either attack blanks; Inter's Lautaro Martínez is out and Fiorentina's roster has substantial turnover.
Both Nets- Projection: Inter scoring 88.0% (λ 2.12; oppadj xGF 2.88 versus Fiorentina xGA 1.37), Fiorentina 77.4% (λ 1.49; oppadj xGF 1.40 versus Inter xGA 1.57).
- Combined independent scoring read is 68.1% BTTS-YES: a symmetric both-sides-score case, not a total-goals proxy.
- Official XIs are not confirmed; expected lineups and substantial player turnover could change either scoring probability.
- Fiorentina spread +1.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days - Inter and Fiorentina BTTS+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Novig
Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 70.3% warehouse BTTS model probability versus 61¢ Novig takeable price.
- Inter projects 2.88 opponent-adjusted xGF; Fiorentina still carries 1.40 on the away side.
- Both defenses allow support: opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.35 for Inter and 1.28 for Fiorentina.
- Inter are missing Lautaro Martínez; Fiorentina are missing Moise Kean, weakening finishing quality.
- Inter over 1.5 goals NO−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CONFIRMED XI at 03:36:49 PDT: Lautaro Martínez is absent; his xG rate is 1.40 per 90.
- Projection: Inter lambda 2.64 before the XI, 1.24 after subtracting Martínez's 1.40 xG/90.
- Kalshi INT2 quoted YES 75¢/76¢; the graded NO price is 26¢. Width is 1¢.
- Martínez's 1.40 xG/90 comes from 485 minutes and 7.54 xG; the sample is small.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Serie A sample: 14 recent finals produced 14 first-half and 29 second-half goals; measured first-half share was 32.6%.
- Holding the clean full ladder, that split implies E[1H]≈1.14, about 0.46 goals below the 1H ladder fit.
- Reconciled P(1H over 1.5)≈31.6%; the NO side costs 52¢.
- Only 14 current-season Serie A fixtures inform the 32.6% split; the sample may be unstable.
Show all 10 picks
- Inter spread over 1.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - Inter spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX was +104 equivalent at 3:48am, before the 3:50am confirmed XI; it is +105 now, effectively unchanged.
- Confirmed Inter XI includes regular starters Nicolò Barella and Alessandro Bastoni; current XI attack xG is 3.00 versus Fiorentina's 1.79.
- Inter are without Lautaro Martínez, whose club-form xG is 1.13 per 90; Pio Esposito starts at 0.59 xG per 90.
- Game over 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model xG totals 4.04; Poisson conversion gives about 57.5% for 4+ goals.
- Warehouse model makes Over 2.5 goals 76.8%, supporting an aggressive scoring baseline.
- Inter averages 2.69 home xG; Fiorentina averages 1.31 away xG.
- The 3.5 threshold loses on exactly 0-3 goals despite the high combined xG.
- Total goals over 2.5+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- warehouse Dixon-Coles P(over 2.5) is 76.8%; lambdas are Inter 2.64 and Fiorentina 1.40.
- Coverage is complete: model, ratings, form and xG flags are true, with 9 minimum xG matches; no Long Haul pillar is being claimed.
- ProphetX board was re-read at 1:47am PDT; exact contract link is filed below.
- Most likely loss route is 0-2 total goals, with the model leaving 23.2% below the rung.
Questions
Who won Fiorentina vs. Inter?
Inter won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.