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FinalStadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris · Genova
Venezia
0–1Final
Genoa
Score by period
Team12T
VENE000
GENO101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total under 2.5 −118

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Nicola's Oct. 14 appointment is a defensive reset after six straight losses under Stroppa.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-10 on this game · −68% return

  1. Venezia to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Venezia leads the rolling xG attack rates, 1.67 per match to Genoa's 0.97.
    • Kalshi moved Venezia from 25.5¢ opening to 28.5¢ current, directionally matching the projection.
    • The model has only 9-10 rolling matches per side and its calibration is not independently validated.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model: Venezia win probability 42.0% versus FanDuel +220 break-even 31.3%.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Venezia 1.72 attack versus Genoa 1.20 allowed.
    • The model is fitted through October 17 and the thinner xG side has only 9 matches of coverage.
    Number Earned
    • Model win probability 42.0%; fair line about +144 versus DraftKings +210.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Venezia 1.72 to 1.01, with expected goals 1.53 to 1.30.
    • Three-way soccer variance is substantial; the model still assigns Genoa 31.9% and the draw 26.1%.
  2. Total goals over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Market-implied total is 2.5; the 0.34-goal model surplus points Over, not Under.
    • Projected lineups are expected rather than confirmed; personnel changes and listed absences could alter attacking quality.
  3. Match total under 2.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on BetMGM

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nicola's Oct. 14 appointment is a defensive reset after six straight losses under Stroppa.
    • Nicola's established 3-5-2 can compress into a 5-4-1; De Rossi specifically called Venezia more solid under him.
    • Underlying feature totals are only 2.47 xG, with Genoa at 0.89 expected goals for.
    • Venezia's 1.58 expected goals for creates a live path to three goals despite the tactical angle.
  4. Match total over 2.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted rates are Genoa 1.01 for / 1.20 against and Venezia 1.72 for / 1.74 against.
    • Combining those rates gives estimated goal rates of 1.38 home and 1.46 away, total 2.84.
    • The selected rung has 514.66 contracts traded, a 1¢ spread, and the full ladder is monotone with bucket probabilities summing to 1.
    • Expected lineups were last observed October 22, not confirmed; late goalkeeper or attacker changes can alter the rate estimate.
  5. Over 2.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG points to 2.73 combined: Genoa 1.01 for / 1.20 against, Venezia 1.72 for / 1.74 against; 9 gp_with_xg each.
    • only the 2.5 total rung was listed; full ProphetX board had no BTTS-shaped market, so this is totals-only.
    • Expected, not confirmed XIs: the 4:21am projections are not official, and Venezia's list conflicts with roster-change context involving Stankovic and Yeboah.
  6. Venezia FC wins 2-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mapping: home is Genoa; model key 0-2 is the contract “Venezia FC wins 2-0”.
    • Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; 11 Genoa and 6 Venezia absences are listed.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Under 2.5 total goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket

    Vig GapDown 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both venues quote the identical 2.5-goal full-match total: Polymarket under costs 50c; Kalshi under costs 52c.
    • Kalshi corroborates the under direction at a 52c buy cost, though its 0.84-point gap is not independently actionable.
    • Movement is not closing the gap: Polymarket over moved 47.5c to 50.5c and Kalshi over 47.5c to 48.5c, making under cheaper versus the sharp fair line.
    • Three or more regulation-time goals loses; an early goal or open match is the clearest failure path.
  2. Venezia FC moneyline +160
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle away +268 is context only; ProphetX is the placement venue.
    • Coverage is clean: has_xg and has_model_p are true; xG sample is 9 matches for Genoa and 9 for Venezia; coverage_reason is null.
    • Only a 3.55-point projection gap qualifies as LEAN, so match variance can overwhelm the edge.
  3. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Genoa scoring read 74.7% and Venezia scoring read 76.8%, using paired attack/defense xG means.
    • Symmetric BTTS case: both sides carry credible scoring paths; this is not a total-goals proxy.
    • The 2.4-point projection edge is thin and may be overwhelmed by match variance.
  4. Venezia over 1.5-goal spreadLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; full xG coverage: Venezia away oppadj xGF 1.72, Genoa home oppadj xGA 1.20; lambdas are Genoa 1.30 and Venezia 1.53.
    • Same-season Serie A sample: 14 of 75 completed matches had a home-minus-away margin of -2 or less (18.7%), supporting a lumpy tail rather than a smooth ladder.
    • Only about a one-in-five event, so one finishing or red-card swing dominates the result.

Questions

Who won Venezia vs. Genoa?

Genoa won 1-0 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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