Updated
FinalCoca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 26 | 19 | 33 | 28 | 106 |
| TOR | 19 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 69 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew York Liberty spread −16.5 42¢
Why Third Quarter Run likes it: Model projects Liberty 95.5, Tempo 78.8, a 16.7-point margin, narrowly clearing −16.5.
Third Quarter RunUp 7% return this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +60% return
- New York Liberty spread −16.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects Liberty 95.5, Tempo 78.8, a 16.7-point margin, narrowly clearing −16.5.
- Efficiency mismatch: Liberty net rating is +4.0 versus Toronto −9.5; recent-form gap widens to 18.7 points.
- Matchup-adjusted pace is 90.57; the projection is driven by efficiency separation, not rest or travel.
- Liberty lead only 37-29 live, so covering −16.5 still requires a sizable closing margin.
- New York Liberty under 176.5 total+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 174.3 points, 2.2 below the posted 176.5.
- Toronto’s last 10: 82.5 points scored, 94.9 allowed; its recent average total is 177.4.
- New York’s last-10 games average 173.5 total points, below this number.
- Toronto’s season total profile averages 180.2, so its full-season over environment can reappear.
- WNBA game total over 176.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Liberty dictates the tempo read: 90.72 L5 pace versus 90.38 season; Toronto is 89.60 L5 versus 91.74 season.
- Season efficiency blend: Liberty 99.7 ORtg versus Toronto 103.8 DRtg, and Toronto 94.8 ORtg versus Liberty 96.4 DRtg.
- Blended pace-times-efficiency projection is approximately 178.4 points, about 1.9 above the same-rung 176.5 line.
- Maria Conde status is unresolved: the warehouse preview lists her out, while Covers lists her questionable; this caps the call at LEAN.
- Total Points under 176.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Short BenchDown 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Season pace is 91.74 Toronto + 90.38 New York; recent pace is 89.60 + 90.72, while wnba_game_model projects 174.3 points.
- There is no rest advantage: both teams have two days off, so this is a rotation-availability read rather than a fatigue play.
- Sabrina Ionescu under 16.5 points+78%Won
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 11.2 points per game over her last five, 32% below the 16.5 line.
- She stayed near normal workload at 29.6 minutes per game in that five-game sample.
- New York is projected to win by 16.7 points; Toronto is 1-9 over its last 10, creating fourth-quarter minutes risk.
- Toronto's 103.8 season defensive rating is poor, giving Ionescu a favorable scoring matchup if minutes hold.
Questions
Who won Liberty vs. Tempo?
The Liberty won 106-69 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.