Updated
FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 34 | 17 | 26 | 16 | 93 |
| IND | 19 | 11 | 31 | 16 | 77 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return
- WNBA game total over 177.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 188.0 points from 92.09 expected pace and 103.2/101.0 expected offensive ratings, 10.5 above the rung.
- Recent form remains offense-supportive: Indiana 112.1 ORtg and Washington 94.8 ORtg at matchup pace around 90.2 per team.
- Clash board gives Indiana a +0.01 net eFG-scale edge; the directional coherence check passes with no unresolved primary-starter issue.
- The model's historical total-error MAE is 13.4 points; a 10.5-point projection gap is not certainty.
- Game total over 177.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 188 total points, 10.5 above the posted 177.5.
- Last-10 scoring combines for 188.4 points: Fever 100.4, Mystics 88.0.
- Indiana owns a 105.3 offensive rating; Washington’s defense is weaker than its offense at 98.3.
- Recent pace is down near 90.2 possessions for both teams, below their season baselines.
- Game total over 177.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Decision path: Boston anchor IN + Austin anchor IN → both teams Tier 2 caliber → one Mystics rotation piece out, one guard unconfirmed → no back-to-back → Filter E total routing.
- Warehouse model projects 188 total points against Kalshi's 177.5 threshold.
- Indiana averages 97.1 points; Washington averages 86.0, while the teams combine for 5.6 net rating and roughly 92 possessions.
- Caitlin Clark remains probable rather than confirmed; a late scratch would materially reduce Indiana's creation.
- Game total over 183.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- WNBA model projects 188.0 points (92.09 expected pace; 103.2 Indiana and 101.0 Washington expected ORtg), 4.5 above this rung.
- Live score is 61 at 7:49 of Q2, approximately 12:11 of game-clock time: roughly a 200-point raw pace before regression.
- Tempo read: Indiana's recent pace is 90.22 versus 91.4 season pace; Washington is 90.26 versus 90.6, no strong mismatch, so efficiency and live tempo carry the case.
- The model's validated total MAE is 13.4 points; a 4.5-point projection gap is modest and variance dominates.
Questions
Who won Mystics vs. Fever?
The Mystics won 93-77 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.