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FinalMichelob ULTRA Arena · Las Vegas
Fever
83-94
Aces
Score by period
Team1234T
IND3117171883
LV3123162494

Top model pick, graded

Won

A'ja Wilson over 13 rebounds 73¢

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Season average is 9.4 rebounds; L5 average is 8.6.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 17% return this season · 89 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-5 on this game · −23% return

  1. WNBA game total over 181.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Road TripUp 40% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana and Las Vegas average 96.0 and 91.3 points per game, respectively.
    • Season pace is 92.9 for Indiana and 90.4 for Las Vegas; both are above the listed total's implied scoring environment.
    • Shooting supports scoring: Indiana shoots 48.7% overall and 38.6% from three; Las Vegas shoots 48.5% and 35.9%.
    • No schedule-rest advantage: both teams have two rest days and neither is on a back-to-back.
  2. A'ja Wilson over 13 reboundsFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 17% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season average is 9.4 rebounds; L5 average is 8.6.
    • Wilson stayed below 13 rebounds in 5 of her last 6 games; the lone miss was 16.
    • 32.0 regular-season minutes and 17.6% rebound rate support a stable baseline below this threshold.
    • NO on 13+ loses at exactly 13 rebounds; this is not a push at the threshold.
  3. Game total over 181.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 17% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 195.6 model total versus 181.5 market: 14.1-point projection gap.
    • Season scoring averages combine for 187.3 points, 5.8 above the posted total.
    • The two prior series games totaled 188 and 187 points.
    • Model vintage is September 25 and was trained on regular-season data, not this playoff setting.
  4. Over 181.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 195.6 points at a 91.98-possession expected pace.
    • Indiana's season pace is 92.9, 2.5 possessions faster than Las Vegas's 90.4.
    • Indiana's team games average 186.4 total points; the Aces average 177.3.
    • The model projection is timestamped September 25, not fully current.
  5. Game total over 180.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tree path: Wilson IN; Boston probable; Tier 1 Aces versus playoff Fever; B does not fire, but E total routing remains live.
    • Depth branch has three confirmed Aces outs plus Talbot questionable, increasing rotation pressure and opponent scoring paths.
    • Both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back; the travel branch adds fatigue uncertainty but no hard road-team ban.
    • Boston and Clark are only probable, so a late limitation could pull Indiana's scoring below the threshold.
  6. Indiana Fever +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tree path: A'ja Wilson IN; Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark probable; Tier 1 Aces versus playoff-caliber Fever; anchor-out filters B/G do not fire.
    • Depth branch: Las Vegas has NaLyssa Smith, Dana Evans, and Ta'Niya Latson out; Stephanie Talbot remains questionable.
    • Rest/travel branch: both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back; Indiana traveled from its Sept. 29 home game to Las Vegas.
    • Boston and Clark are probable, not confirmed; either restriction materially weakens Indiana's offense.
Show all 9 picks
  1. A'ja Wilson under 10.5 rebounds
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fallback estimates 59.4% under; DraftKings implies 51.5%, a 7.9-point model delta.
    • Pinnacle de-vigs to 48.6% under, leaving the soft price above the sharp baseline.
    • Wilson averaged 10.6 rebounds in her last five, but the season-rate/minutes model projects a 9.8-rebound mean.
    • The recent rebound average is above the line, so the model disagrees with a directly contrary short sample.
  2. Kelsey Mitchell under 24.5 points
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fallback estimates 64% under; DraftKings implies 55.6%, an 8.4-point model delta.
    • Pinnacle de-vigs to 51.5% under, confirming the retail price is not fully aligned with the model.
    • Mitchell averaged 18.0 points in her last five; recent 29.6 minutes are 8.9% below her 32.5-minute season baseline.
    • Poisson approximation ignores postseason matchup variance and correlated shooting outcomes.
  3. WNBA game total under 183.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game pace: Indiana 90.64 vs 92.9 regular-season; Las Vegas 89.82 vs 90.4, both slower.
    • Las Vegas is the tempo anchor: its lower recent pace should pull this matchup toward roughly 90.2 possessions.
    • Cross-efficiency read: Indiana offense vs Las Vegas defense ≈97.2; Las Vegas offense vs Indiana defense ≈100.3.
    • Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston are probable, not confirmed; unresolved availability caps this at LEAN.

Questions

Who won Fever vs. Aces?

The Aces won 94-83 on Thursday, Oct 1, 2026.

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