FinalNorthwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| NU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 41 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorthwestern Wildcats to win 64¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-10 on this game · −70% return
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Key 3 landed in 962 of 10,573 FBS games; home/away counts were 516/446, about 4.2%/4.9%.
- Colorado's 2026 defense is -0.12 EPA/play; its 2026 PFF defense grade is 84.0 versus Northwestern's 65.5.
- Colorado's 2026 sample is only two games and Northwestern's only one; efficiency estimates are noisy.
Long Way Home- Colorado's defense allowed -0.12 EPA/play through two games versus Northwestern's +0.03 allowed in one game.
- Colorado's 0.12 explosive-play rate is lower, but that profile supports a tighter game than Northwestern's 0.20 one-game offensive spike.
- Northwestern's offense has a stronger early success rate: 0.55 versus Colorado's 0.47.
- Northwestern Wildcats to win+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Under 48 total0%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main total is 48: over -106 / under -110; the ProphetX under 48 is a same-rung -106 offer.
- Possession estimate is about 19 total drives: Colorado's 21.1-second pace and Northwestern's 29.4-second pace create a fast/slow mix rather than two up-tempo attacks.
- Blended points per drive is 2.19 for Colorado and 2.35 for Northwestern after discounting the tiny 2026 samples; the total distribution leans below 48.
- Current points per drive are higher at 2.56 and 3.09, while Northwestern's 19.6% explosive rate can create a quick over.
- 1H total over 23.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected 26, 28 first-half points from recent pace and points-per-drive inputs.
- Colorado averaged 2.56 points per drive across two games; Northwestern posted 3.09 in its opener.
- Julian Lewis and Aidan Chiles are the current quarterback reads, with both leading their teams in recent passing and named in a game preview.
- Coverage is thin: Northwestern contributes only one 2026 team game and Colorado only two.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado +7.5 wins on Northwestern margins of 7 or less; the half-point cannot push.
- ProphetX may be intentionally incorporating matchup-specific seven-point frequency; this is not a projection edge.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 12 picks
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- cfb_predictor is essentially pick'em: Colorado 50.2% vs Northwestern 49.8%, while Colorado receives five points.
- Colorado's 2026 profile: +0.19 offensive EPA/play and -0.12 defensive EPA/play through two games.
- Pinnacle's board had Northwestern -3.5 / Colorado +3.5, so ProphetX supplies 1.5 extra points at the selected rung.
- Partial-tier sample: Colorado has two current-season games and Northwestern only one; this cannot receive the full-data grade.
- Northwestern 1H spread NO 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season-to-date inputs are thin but directional: Colorado averages 77.5 plays and 2.56 points per drive; Northwestern 56 plays and 3.09 points per drive.
- The model projects a +1.75 Northwestern first-half mean, consistent with Pinnacle's full-game Northwestern -3.5 sharp reference.
- At the exact +2.5 rung, N(+1.75, 11.04) gives Northwestern YES 47.3%, so NO is 52.7% versus a 50¢ buy price.
- The college margin histogram is asymmetric and based on winning margins; a normal signed half-margin approximation may misstate explosive-play tails.
- 1H total under 23.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 S2D: Colorado averages 77.5 plays/12 drives; Northwestern 56 plays/11 drives; blended 5.8 plays per drive.
- Blended pace is 25.32 seconds/play; 66.75 first-half plays imply 11.5 drives, cut to 10.9 for NWS 60% showers.
- PROJECTION edge; 1H total only, distinct from the sibling desk's listed 1Q-total and 1H-winner markets.
- The 23.3 reference is derived, not an independent same-rung sharp 1H total; this is LEAN, not recommended.
- Game total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado's 2026 defense allows -0.12 EPA/play, improved from +0.07 in 2025.
- Northwestern's pace is 29.4 seconds/play this season, following 28.32 last year; fewer possessions support the under.
- Colorado plays fast at 21.10 seconds/play; both teams' positive PROE can create extra scoring chances.
- Game total points under 46.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent five-game pace is 22.09 seconds/play for Colorado and 29.99 for Northwestern, pointing to a slower combined possession environment.
- Colorado's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.00, and its 2026 PFF defense grade is 84.0 against Northwestern's 65.5 offense-facing defense card.
- Only two Colorado and one Northwestern 2026 advanced rows exist; prior-season rows are the fallback, so this is capped LEAN.
- Colorado Buffaloes to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado already won 14-13 at Georgia Tech; Northwestern's 34-18 opener came against South Dakota State.
- Northwestern's home field and the market's roughly 62% home-win baseline can overwhelm the small projection edge.
Questions
Who won Colorado vs. Northwestern?
Northwestern won 41-7 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.