FinalVaught-Hemingway Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 0 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 24 |
| MISS | 10 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 32 |
Top model pick, graded
Won1H total over 27.5 54¢
Why Kickoff Script likes it: Recent points/drive averages are 3.34 for LSU and 3.63 for Ole Miss across two games.
Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-8 on this game · −15% return
- LSU Tigers to win−100%Lost
Taken at −144 on FanDuel
3 modelsD1 Winner, ProphetX Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
D1 Winner- LSU's current-game defensive EPA allowed is -0.35 per play versus Ole Miss at +0.04.
- LSU's 2026 PFF team grade is 92.7, including a 91.8 defensive grade.
- Leavitt has 4 interceptions in 66 attempts and a 44.8 latest adjusted QBR.
ProphetX Pairs- LSU's two-game defense has allowed -0.35 EPA/play versus Ole Miss at +0.04; all four opponents were FBS.
- Tier 2 Partial: both teams have only two 2026 games, below the brief's Full-tier minimum of three.
Long Way Home- Model projects LSU by 5.37 points, aligning with the moneyline direction rather than relying on payout size.
- LSU opened 2026 with wins of 51-10 and 45-14, posting 644 and 528 yards; Ole Miss is 41-38 and 41-9.
- Most likely loss: Ole Miss wins outright at home despite LSU's model edge.
- LSU Tigers spread −3−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines- LSU's blended defensive EPA allowed is -0.23/play versus Ole Miss at +0.03; that defensive gap supports the LSU side despite Ole Miss's stronger offense.
- Only two 2026 advanced rows per team forces a prior-season blend; the early-season sample is noisy.
Key Number CFB- LSU's 2026 defense is -0.35 EPA/play versus Ole Miss at +0.04; LSU's offense is +0.20 versus Ole Miss at +0.30.
- Pinnacle's reference spread is LSU -2.5 at -115, corroborating the LSU side; the ProphetX -3 price supplies the key-number value.
- A three-point LSU win pushes rather than wins the ticket, and the 3-point cluster is unusually large.
- 1H total over 27.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent points/drive averages are 3.34 for LSU and 3.63 for Ole Miss across two games.
- LSU ran 89 and 98 offensive plays; Ole Miss ran 60 and 84, supporting a multi-possession opening script.
- Two games per team make the points/drive and pace sample fragile.
- LSU Tigers 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- LSU averaged +0.20 offensive EPA/play across two 2026 games; Ole Miss defense averaged +0.03 allowed EPA/play.
- LSU’s 3.34 points/drive baseline pairs with Ole Miss’s permissive recent defensive profile.
- Substitute reference: Kalshi’s 1H three-way midpoints devig to roughly 51.2% LSU, below the model.
- Only two 2026 games per team, below the preferred 3, 5-game coverage tier.
- Game 1H total over 27.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valid tempo was 24.67, 24.94 seconds/play; clear, calm, dry weather creates no possession haircut.
- mean PROE .1137 and explosive rate .153; product uplift 1.7%, producing a 32.9-point model.
- Only two games per team; prior first-half totals ranged LSU 17, 34 and Ole Miss 16, 27.
- Game total over 58−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are over 3 versus under 3, neutral corroboration; raw quote size is substantial on both sides, not a handful of dollars.
- Backing over 58, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price: -111.
- Venue self-reference is the only reference; there is no independent sharp confirmation and this is not a projection or statistical edge.
Show all 11 picks
- Ole Miss Rebels spread +2.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ole Miss posted +0.41 offensive EPA/play and a .617 success rate last week, supporting a close-game home-underdog script.
- Most likely loss: LSU's Week 2 defense produced -0.62 EPA/play allowed and can create a three-point-or-more road win.
- LSU Tigers 1H spread NO 2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,629 regular-season FBS games from 2023-25 produced SD_full 14.71; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 10.40.
- Pinnacle's live full-game line is LSU -2.5; scaled mean is LSU +1.25 at halftime, making NO about 54.8% at the exact 2.5 rung.
- Only two 2026 games per team inform the projection; Ole Miss's 2.77-second Week 1 pace is an unstable outlier beside 24.94 in Week 2.
- Ole Miss Rebels to win+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fresh First Take listing: “Stephen A picks LSU over Ole Miss despite playing on the road.”
- SI quotes Smith emphatically: “I think Sam Leavitt’s going to be in this game.”
- Polymarket US prices LSU at 59¢, leaving Ole Miss at a 41.5¢ buy price.
- The market favors LSU, and Ole Miss must overcome both the home matchup and that consensus.
- LSU spread −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- First Take/TSN clip dated Sep. 16: “Stephen A. Smith says Ole Miss can’t afford to get blown out against LSU.”
- First Take’s current clip framing is stronger: “Stephen A. says Ole Miss can not get blown out!”
- The concrete fade is LSU winning by more than 3.5, matching the opposite of the clip’s outcome claim.
- “Can’t afford to get blown out” may describe stakes rather than a literal forecast.
- Ole Miss Rebels spread +3+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA matchup +0.45 for Ole Miss (0.29 offense minus LSU's -0.16 defensive EPA).
- Ole Miss success rate 54.3% vs LSU 45.5%, an +8.8-point margin.
- Sportsbook spreads run from Ole Miss +2.5 to +3.5, a 1.0-point variance gate clear.
- LSU's defensive results are volatile early, creating substantial opponent-adjustment uncertainty.
Questions
Who won LSU vs. Ole Miss?
Ole Miss won 32-24 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.