FinalBank of America Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
| UVA | 14 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVirginia Cavaliers 1H spread NO 6.5 49¢
Why Early Cover likes it: 2,055 FBS margins (2024, 26) gave SD_full 15.61; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.04.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −43% return
- 3-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at −135
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas A&M -850 DK (89.5% raw) vs 93.0% model; current 2-game defense EPA allowed -0.34 and PFF overall 91.3.
- Duke -395 DK (79.8% raw) vs 84.5% model; Stanford's current defense EPA allowed is +0.45 with 1.35 points per drive.
- Virginia -410 DK (80.4% raw) vs 83.5% model; Cavaliers pair -0.29 defensive EPA allowed with a 97.0 PFF overall grade.
- Kentucky's current offense EPA is +0.20 versus Texas A&M's +0.13, creating a backdoor risk despite the Aggies' defensive gap.
- Virginia Cavaliers 1H spread NO 6.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,055 FBS margins (2024, 26) gave SD_full 15.61; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.04.
- two-game EPA/PPD blend centers Virginia’s first-half margin near +4.2; model P(NO) ≈58%.
- College histogram key mass is computed: margins 3 (177), 7 (146), 10 (89); 6.5 resolves at the 7-point mass.
- Only two 2026 games per team; EPA/PPD estimates and opponent adjustment are shallow.
- Virginia Cavaliers spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Virginia -7 wins by 8+, pushes on an exact 7-point win, and loses by 6 or fewer.
- ProphetX charges 63.50¢ for -7 versus 61.24¢ for -7.5, only a 2.26¢ premium for the push protection.
- Virginia wins by 6 or fewer and the -7 contract loses; the spread still requires a directional result.
- Xay Davis first touchdown scorer−100%Lost
Taken at +1400 on DraftKings
CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Virginia is AP No. 25 in the current Week 3 poll, 2-0; team total is 31.5.
- Virginia averages 0.31 EPA/play and a 53.6% success rate; latest WVU defensive baseline allowed 0.06 EPA/play.
- Davis has 18 carries for 120 yards and one rushing TD; he posted 11 carries for 107 yards last week.
- Middlebrook also has 18 carries and Pribula has 17 QB carries; the goal-line split is unverified.
- Kameron Courtney under 3.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Receiver-attribution share fell 27.3% to 20.8% (3/11 and 5/24) across two current games; CV is 19.1%.
- Receptions held 3 to 3 while yards per reception rose 4.0 to 11.7; share fell as production spiked.
- Virginia pass attempts rose 11 to 24; PFF route rate is 100.0% in 2026 and 96.1% in 2025.
- Only two current-season games; PARTIAL coverage requires the 0.5u sizing cap.
- West Virginia Mountaineers spread +11+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live reference is West Virginia +10.5 -103; ProphetX supplies an extra half-point at a comparable price.
- The CFB warehouse marks this matchup neutral-site, removing a normal Virginia home-field component from the margin.
- West Virginia's first two games show +0.66 and +0.08 offensive EPA/play, with 316 and 281 rushing yards.
- Virginia's week-two success rate was 57.8%, versus West Virginia's 54.7%, and its offense has been efficient.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Virginia's defense posted -0.28 and -0.30 EPA/play allowed in its two 2026 games.
- West Virginia improved from +0.02 to -0.29 defensive EPA/play allowed across its first two games.
- Pinnacle also backed the direction at under 51.5 (-107); this is not a payout-size argument.
- The four-game 2026 total sample averages 54.5 points, with three of four above 51.5.
Questions
Who won West Virginia vs. Virginia?
West Virginia won 38-27 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.