FinalAmFirst Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 3 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| JXST | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGeorgia Southern Eagles spread +7.5 65¢
Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX Georgia Southern +7.5 is -186 (65.03c); +7 is -178 (64.03c).
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-8 on this game · −38% return
- Georgia Southern Eagles to win−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Only Donkey14's fresh target-game buy is timestamped; the other Eagles entry timing is unclear.
Long Way Home- Jacksonville State has allowed 29 and 33 points in its two 2026 games; Georgia Southern has shown 31-point scoring upside.
- Pinnacle lists Georgia Southern +151, confirming this is a live same-line price, not a stale outlier.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State's home edge and market consensus are right, with Georgia Southern failing to finish drives.
- Game total under 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- ProphetX under 51.5 is -108 (51.92c); under 51 is +100 (50.00c).
ProphetX Pairs- the five completed 2026 team totals are 40, 56, 56, 31 and 29; average 42.4, with 4 of 5 below 51.5.
- The current-season passing logs identify Caden Creel for Jacksonville State and Max Johnson for Georgia Southern as the primary quarterbacks.
- Partial sample: Georgia Southern has only two completed 2026 games, and the raw scoring average is not opponent-adjusted.
- Georgia Southern Eagles spread +7.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX Georgia Southern +7.5 is -186 (65.03c); +7 is -178 (64.03c).
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jax State averaged 2.58 points per drive and 51.9% offensive success across its three 2026 games.
- Georgia Southern averaged 1.44 points per drive and 40.8% success across its two 2026 games.
- Derived recent EPA matchup composite favors Jax State by approximately 0.59 EPA/play before opponent adjustment.
- The sample mixes FBS and FCS opponents, and opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1H spread NO 2.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Jacksonville State -3.5 (-102); half-game mean anchor is +1.75 home points.
- 2024, 25 FBS sample: 1,853 finals, empirical margin SD 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.44, not 7.39.
- At the exact 2.5 rung, mean +1.75 and SD 10.44 produce 47.3% Jacksonville State over; derived NO reference is 52.7%.
- The 2026 team sample is only two games for Georgia Southern and three for Jacksonville State, with opponent quality unadjusted.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −3.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jacksonville State's 2026 sample is +0.28 offensive EPA/play and 51.9% success over 3 games; Georgia Southern is -0.06 and 40.8% over 2.
- PFF 2026 card favors Jacksonville State: 79.4 overall and 89.3 coverage grade versus Georgia Southern's 70.8 and 76.0.
- Starting QBs are resolved: Caden Creel and Max Johnson led their latest pass-attempt rows; the official 9/18 preview confirms both personnel anchors.
- Georgia Southern has only 2 current-season efficiency rows; the 13-game 2025 sample is a flagged fallback, so this is capped LEAN.
Show all 10 picks
- Game 1H total over 26.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game window: GSU PPD 1.44 and JSU PPD 3.55; 5.1 projected drives per team gives 25.5 baseline points.
- drive-seconds/play recheck gives 24.67 GSU and 23.97 JSU, or 24.32 blended; 1,500 effective seconds implies 30.8 plays/team and about 5.1 drives.
- sportsbook full-game total is 52.5; own drive/PDD scaling produces 29.5 for the first half, not a flat 26.25.
- Only two 2026 games per offense; the 29.5 projection is sample-sensitive and the 3.0-point gap is modest versus first-half variance.
- Georgia Southern +2−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing Georgia Southern +2, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count ties 3-3, leaving the read reliant on two measures rather than three.
- Georgia Southern Eagles spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 962 of 10,576 CFB games (9.1%) finished with a 3-point margin, a material key-number cluster.
- Official school pages and recent box data identify Max Johnson and Caden Creel as the quarterbacks; both teams clear the personnel gate.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State wins by 4-7, clearing 3.5 despite Georgia Southern's key-number cushion.
- Game total under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jacksonville State’s two 56-point totals came against Eastern Kentucky and Ohio; its other total was 40 against North Dakota State.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State’s efficient offense creates short fields and the game reaches the mid-50s.
Questions
Who won Georgia Southern vs. Jacksonville State?
Jacksonville State won 31-27 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.