FinalSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| MEM | 10 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUT Martin Skyhawks spread +30 42¢
Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX UT Martin +30 is 42.02¢ versus 44.25¢ for adjacent +30.5: a 2.23¢ gap.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-2 on this game · −21% return
- Memphis Tigers spread −35.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Memphis 2026 offense is +0.32 EPA/play versus UT Martin's defense allowing +0.66; UT Martin offense is -0.29 versus Memphis defense allowing +0.17.
- Current pass-attempt leaders Marcus Stokes and Tate Surber are supported by the warehouse and live official roster/game-center checks.
- Memphis -35.5 loses at any margin of 35 or less; the exact 34/35 outcomes are the density being crossed.
- UT Martin Skyhawks spread +30+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX UT Martin +30 is 42.02¢ versus 44.25¢ for adjacent +30.5: a 2.23¢ gap.
- Broad 2014-25 CFB history is not Memphis/UT Martin-specific; team-level margin mass may differ.
- Game total under 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UT Martin’s latest offense posted -0.29 EPA/play and 0.0 points per drive; the matchup favors a low-scoring underdog.
- Memphis scored 20 at Boise after 27 and 42 in its prior games; 58.5 requires sustained production from both sides.
- Pinnacle lists under 57 at -104; ProphetX offers under 58.5 at -107, providing 1.5 points of cushion.
- Most likely loss path: Memphis reaches 50, then UT Martin adds a late garbage-time touchdown.
Questions
Who won UT Martin vs. Memphis?
Memphis won 45-21 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.