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FinalMartin Stadium
Arizona2-1
34–24Final
Washington State1-2
Score by period
Team1234T
ARIZ7771334
WSU1430724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Washington State +10.5 50¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-10 on this game · −16% return

  1. Game total points under 48.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Three-game 2026 sample: Washington State is -0.15 EPA/play and 43.1% successful; Arizona defense allows -0.04 EPA/play.
    • Arizona's offense averages +0.20 EPA/play and 52.6% success, but WSU's PFF offense is 64.5 with 29.8 pass-blocking.
    • WSU defense allows +0.08 EPA/play and Arizona averages +0.20 offensively; the Wildcats could score enough alone.
    Tempo Board
    • Same-event team totals post Washington State 17.5 plus Arizona 30.5, summing to 48.0 below the full-game 48.5.
    • Washington State's 2026 offense averages .431 success rate and .038 PROE across 3 games; its two FBS losses scored 10 and 7.
    • Washington State scored 48 last week and posted a .219 explosive rate in that game; that tail can reappear.
  2. Washington State +10.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Washington State Cougars spread +10.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended efficiency model projects Arizona by 9.2 points; the 10.5 key-number cushion favors Washington State.
    • Arizona's current offensive EPA is +0.20/play versus WSU's -0.15, a substantial favorite-side efficiency gap.
  4. Under 48.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main line is 48.5: Under -113 / Over -103; devigged Pinnacle under probability is 51.1%.
    • Possession/efficiency support the under: Washington State averages 60.3 plays, 29.3 seconds per play, 1.36 points per drive and 11.3% explosiveness.
    • Washington State's 48-7 Duquesne result produced a 41-point margin; discounting that garbage-time-contaminated efficiency lowers the total estimate.
    • Arizona is averaging 31.3 points and 14.5% explosive plays through three games; its offense can clear the total largely by itself.
  5. Arizona Wildcats first-half spread over 6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Arizona -10.5 (-111) supplies a +5.25 first-half mean anchor after halving the margin.
    • Arizona's 3-game points-per-drive average is 2.76 versus Washington State's 1.36; play rates are 66.3 and 60.3.
    • Own college histogram clusters at margins 3 (197 games) and 7 (172); at the 6.5 rung, the model gives roughly 55% NO.
    • Only three current-season games per team; Washington State's 48-point Duquesne result is a major form outlier.
  6. Arizona Wildcats −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona averaged +0.20 offensive EPA/play; Washington State averaged -0.15 through three games.
    • EPA matchup projects roughly a 15-point efficiency gap before home adjustment; fair spread Arizona -13.0.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Noah Fifita and Caden Pinnick; no injury concern reported.
    • Three-game samples include FCS opponents, making the efficiency estimate noisy.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Arizona Wildcats spread −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's 3-game offense: +0.20 EPA/play, 52.6% success, 14.5% explosive rate.
    • Washington State's 3-game offense: -0.15 EPA/play, 43.1% success; Arizona defense allowed -0.04 EPA/play.
    • Noah Fifita and Caden Pinnick led their teams' latest pass attempts; same-day search cross-checks both expected starters.
    • Most likely loss: Washington State's home-field advantage and explosive plays keep the margin below 10.5.
  2. Arizona Wildcats 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: Arizona 1H win probability 74% versus 68% entry price.
    • Arizona's last three offensive EPA/play averaged +0.20; Washington State averaged -0.15.
    • Arizona led WSU 0.53 to 0.43 in recent offensive success rate and 2.76 to 1.36 in points per drive.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  3. 1H total over 13.5Favorite
    +14%Won

    Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • season weighted points per drive is 2.03; 10.8 projected first-half drives gives 21.9 baseline points.
    • Only three 2026 games feed each team’s pace, PROE, explosive rate, and drive baselines.
  4. Under 48.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 48.5 wins at exactly 48, while under 48 pushes at exactly 48.
    • under 48.5 is 52.61¢ (-111) versus under 48 at 51.22¢ (-105), only a 1.39-point premium.
    • The half-point contract captures the 48-point win instead of refunding it; the observed premium is 1.49 points below the historical exact-total frequency.
    • The measured 1.49-point gap is venue-specific and can close before acceptance.
  5. Washington State +7.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +7.5 wins when Arizona wins by exactly 7, while +7 pushes.
    • +7.5 is 42.74¢ (+134) versus +7 at 40.00¢ (+150), only a 2.74-point premium.
    • Arizona can win by a margin other than exactly 7, making the push asymmetry irrelevant.
  6. Arizona −12
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quote: Arizona -12 at +104 (49.02c); Washington State +12 is -110 (52.38c).
    • Venue self-reference is the entire primary signal; there is no independent sharp-reference confirmation.
  7. Game total points over 48.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB total histogram: 3,931 of 10,874 regular/postseason games finished 48 or lower, a 63.9% historical over-48.5 rate.
    • Current scoring form points higher: Arizona averages 31.3 points and Washington State 21.7 through three games, a 53.0 combined baseline.
    • Arizona's recent offense posts +0.12 EPA/play, while the sharp reference total is also 48.5; the exchange has not fully absorbed the projection above that number.
    • Washington State's current offense is only -0.06 EPA/play and has scored 21.7 points per game; that is the clearest path to an under.
  8. Noah Fifita passing yards over 254.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 10 appearances cleared 254.5 passing yards, a 60% hit rate.
    • Fifita averaged 272.3 passing yards across Arizona's first three 2026 games.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; the 60% empirical estimate gives a 6.7-point margin.
    • Washington State's last-10 defense allowed -0.09 EPA per play, a meaningful suppression signal.
  9. Game total over 48
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 Over versus 3 Under: no corroboration there, but thin-at-quote plus deeper-total satisfy two of the three measures.
    • Directional check: backing Over 48, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price is +100 American / 50¢.
    • The depth advantage is only 8.5% and book levels tie; this is a marginal two-measure read, not a broad confirmation.
  10. Arizona Wildcats spread −12
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona leads current success rate 52.6% to 43.1%; the efficiency gap is larger than the main 10.5-point market number.
    • Arizona has outscored opponents 94-52; Washington State is 65-65, supporting a double-digit Arizona margin.
    • Most likely loss: Washington State’s home field and its 48-point Week 3 outburst keep the game within one score.
  11. Washington State Cougars spread +12
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • cfb_predictor at 6:04 AM PDT projects Arizona by 10.48, 1.52 points inside Washington State +12.
    • Arizona and Washington State starting QBs are identified by official team previews: Noah Fifita and Caden Pinnick.
    • Partial CFB tier: each team has only two FBS games; each also has one FCS opponent.

Questions

Who won Arizona vs. Washington State?

Arizona won 34-24 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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