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FinalDavis Wade Stadium
Missouri3-0
24–31Final
Mississippi State3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
MIZ01014024
MSST14031431

Top model pick, graded

Won

2-leg parlay −144

Why Short Yardage likes it: Current three-game EPA profile: Georgia +0.55 offense, .613 success, .221 explosive, 4.49 points/drive versus Oklahoma +0.01, .473, .112, 2.10.

Short YardageDown 3% this season · 12 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-9 on this game · −0% return

  1. Mississippi State Bulldogs spread −52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Blended current/prior efficiency: Mississippi State offense +0.39 EPA/play vs Missouri +0.11, a +0.28 gap.
    • Blended points per drive favors Mississippi State 3.63 to 2.87; possession-adjusted model margin is Bulldogs +6.5.
    • Missouri's blended defensive EPA allowed (-0.15) is materially better than Mississippi State's (+0.02), which can keep the margin below five.
    Long Way Home
    • Mississippi State averaged +0.47 offensive EPA/play over three games versus Missouri’s +0.12; the 0.35 gap supports laying five.
    • Mississippi State won its first three by 49, 25, and 7; Missouri won by 40, 17, and 10, showing the stronger margin profile.
    • Only three games of 2026 data; opponent quality differs materially between the schedules.
  2. Mississippi State Bulldogs to win2 models agree
    +57%Won

    Taken at −175 on DraftKings

    2 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Model projects Mississippi State by 6.20 points against a market spread of -3.5.
    • Mississippi State's last-10 offense EPA/play is 0.22 versus Missouri's 0.03.
    • The predictor was observed at 6:04 AM PDT, before the 3:15 PM official injury update.
    Long Way Home
    • Mississippi State leads 2026 to-date Missouri by offensive EPA/play, .473 to .119, and success rate, 57.3% to 45.0%.
    • Mississippi State averages 4.05 points per drive; Missouri averages 3.03, supporting the favorite's superior scoring profile.
    • Missouri's defense has allowed -0.20 EPA/play, far better than Mississippi State's +0.02 mark.
  3. Over 57.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full Tier 2 RECOMMENDED; 71.7 and 67.7 plays per team plus PPD 4.05/3.03 support possessions and the Over.
    • Only three current rows per team; no exact Pinnacle 57.5 quote, so the derived rung is model-dependent.
  4. Over 58.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 efficiency sample: Mississippi State offense +0.47 EPA/play, 56.8% success, 18.7% explosive; Missouri offense +0.12, 45.0%, 14.4%.
    • Missouri’s defense has allowed -0.19 EPA/play this season and can suppress Mississippi State’s attack.
  5. 2-leg parlay
    +69%Won

    Taken at −144

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current three-game EPA profile: Georgia +0.55 offense, .613 success, .221 explosive, 4.49 points/drive versus Oklahoma +0.01, .473, .112, 2.10.
    • Georgia grades are 98.9 overall, 94.9 offense and 91.6 defense versus Oklahoma's 79.1 overall and 65.2 offense.
    • Current three-game profile: Mississippi State +0.47 offense EPA, .568 success, .187 explosive, 4.05 points/drive versus Missouri's +.119, .450, .144, 3.03.
    • Only three current-season games per team; early-season opponent adjustment and explosive rates carry sampling error.
  6. Mississippi State Bulldogs first-half spread NO over 6.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game home spread is -5; scaled and form-adjusted first-half mean is Mississippi State +2.8.
    • 2359 CFB games from 2024-26 produce a winning-margin SD of 15.83; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.20, not 7.92.
    • Measured college key-number mass includes margin 7 (172 games); the 6.5 rung sits immediately beside that observed mass.
    • Only three 2026 games inform the team projection; Mississippi State points per drive fell from 4.77 to 3.15 and Missouri from 4.33 to 1.54.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Mississippi State Bulldogs spread −5.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.0-point sportsbook line range: Mississippi State -5.5 to -6.5.
    • Matchup EPA differential favors Mississippi State by approximately +0.58 EPA/play.
    • Mississippi State recent success rate 54.4% versus Missouri 43.2%, an +11.2-point margin.
    • Mississippi State's defense allowed positive recent EPA/play, so Missouri can sustain drives.
  2. Mississippi State Bulldogs over 32.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.29 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Mississippi State weighted offense 0.25 minus Missouri defensive allowance -0.04.
    • Pace supports possessions: Mississippi State 24.81 seconds/play and Missouri 27.71, versus a 26.62 FBS median.
    • Only two current-season FBS Missouri games and three Mississippi State games; the 2026-plus-2025 blend remains partial.
  3. Missouri Tigers spread +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Missouri's defense has -0.19 EPA/play allowed across 3 current-season games versus Mississippi State's +0.02.
    • Missouri's 90.2 PFF defense and 92.4 pass-block grade provide a matchup counter to Mississippi State's 77.4 offense and 65.0 pass-block grade.
    • Missouri's Austin Simmons and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor are confirmed by last-game pass-attempt leaders, official availability, and live reporting.
    • Most likely loss: Mississippi State's offense averages 0.47 EPA/play, 18.7% explosive plays, and operates at 24.95 seconds per play.
  4. 1H total over 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game points-per-drive averages are 3.03 for Missouri and 4.05 for Mississippi State.
    • Recent pace averaged 27.31 seconds/play for Missouri and 24.95 for Mississippi State, supporting first-half possessions.
    • Mississippi State averaged +0.47 EPA/play, 57.3% success, and +7.3% PROE across three games.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  5. Mississippi State Bulldogs 1st-half winner
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mississippi State averages 71.7 plays at 24.95 seconds per play; the faster script creates more first-half possessions.
    • Mississippi State leads Missouri in three-game success rate, 57.3% to 45.0%, and PROE, +7.3% to +2.6%.
    • Mississippi State averages 0.47 offensive EPA/play and 4.05 points/drive versus Missouri's 0.12 and 3.03.
    • Missouri's defense averages -0.19 EPA/play allowed; it can suppress Mississippi State's aggressive opening script.
  6. 1H total over 30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 67.7 Missouri plays and 71.7 Mississippi State plays; blended pace is 26.0 seconds per play.
    • 69.2 clock plays before stoppages, cut to roughly 60; 60 ÷ 5.75 historical plays/drive projects 10.4 drives.
    • NWS forecast has 60% showers; drive-only adjustment produces roughly 9.4 first-half drives, not a scoring-rate haircut.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; pace and points/drive are thin-sample estimates with crude opponent adjustment.
  7. Missouri Tigers over 58 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX over 58 is -110 (52.38¢) versus its over 58.5 at -105 (51.22¢): only a 1.16-point price premium for the push option.
    • The 58 contract is strictly better than over 58.5 when the total lands exactly 58; the venue's rung gap is smaller than the observed push mass.
    • ProphetX's adjacent-rung prices can move before filing, and the exact-quote size is much thinner than total depth.
  8. Mississippi State Bulldogs −7 spread
    0%Push

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mississippi State -7 pushes on exactly a 7-point win; -7.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX -7 is 42.02¢ versus -7.5 at 39.37¢, a 2.65-point premium.
    • A Mississippi State win by 8 or more loses the contract; an exact 7 only refunds stake.
  9. Game total points under 58.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB histogram: 6,400 of 10,897 games (58.7%) finished under 58.5; totals 55, 58 occurred 1,081 times versus 914 for 59, 62.
    • Missouri allowed -0.11 EPA/play over three 2026 games; Mississippi State allowed +0.12 EPA/play.
    • PFF 2026 card favors Missouri’s defense 90.2, 82.1, including pass rush 89.2, 61.6; Missouri also plays slower, 27.45 versus 24.81 seconds per play.
    • Most likely loss: Mississippi State’s offense is averaging 0.47 EPA/play and 47.0 points per game, producing another shootout.
  10. Missouri +7.5 spread
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Missouri's 2026 defense is -0.11 EPA/play allowed versus Mississippi State's +0.12; the matchup supports a tighter margin than the home offense implies.
    • PFF grades favor Missouri's pass block 92.4 versus Mississippi State pass rush 61.6; Austin Simmons and Kamario Taylor were confirmed by official previews and recent box data.
    • Mississippi State's 2026 offense is excellent at +0.47 EPA/play with a 24.95-second pace, creating blowout and scoring-cluster risk.
  11. Game total points over 58
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mississippi State averages 24.95 seconds per play and .187 explosive rate across three 2026 games.
    • Mississippi State success rate is .567 versus Missouri .450; recent three-game totals average 67 and 57 points, respectively.
    • Most likely loss: Missouri’s defense turns Mississippi State’s fast possessions into field goals or short drives.
  12. Donovan Olugbode over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share rose 24.2% → 40.0% → 47.4% across 3 games (8/33, 12/30, 9/19); share CV is 25.9%, below the 35% stability cutoff.
    • Yards per reception fell 20.2 → 10.3 in the last two games and 14.5 → 10.3 first-to-last, while target share rose.
    • Most likely loss: Missouri repeats its 19-pass, 51-play performance and Olugbode finishes with four or fewer receptions.
  13. Game total points under 56.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game sample: Missouri defense allowed -0.19 EPA/play; Mississippi State offense produced +0.47.
    • Missouri averaged 27.45 seconds/play; Mississippi State 24.81, with the slower offense constraining possessions.
    • PFF 2026 grades: Missouri defense 90.2; Mississippi State passing 68.9; Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy is officially out.
    • Most likely loss: Mississippi State's .568 success rate and .187 explosive rate produce efficient scoring.

Questions

Who won Missouri vs. Mississippi State?

Mississippi State won 31-24 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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