FinalDonald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| ARK | 10 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArkansas Razorbacks −7.5 45¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-7 on this game · +6% return
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane to win−100%Lost
Taken at +220 on FanDuel
3 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Picks With Pink Grading System +1Why 3 models like it
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Model projection creates approximately +46.8% expected return at FanDuel's +220.
- Tulsa is 3-0 with 89.4 overall team grade; Arkansas is 1-2 with a 65.8 grade.
- Current-season samples are only three games per team, creating high variance.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Tulsa is 3-0 this season; Arkansas is 1-2, with Tulsa's recent offense at +0.04 EPA/play versus Arkansas at +0.11 but Arkansas defense allowing +0.27 EPA/play.
- Team-grade gap favors Tulsa 89.4 overall versus Arkansas 65.8, including 86.8 versus 59.5 in rushing grade.
- Tulsa's broader last-10 record is only 5-5, below the 60% consistency preference, so the current 3-0 run is a limited sample.
Long Way Home- Tulsa's 2026 offense has posted +0.11, +0.12 and +0.19 EPA/play in its three completed games.
- Arkansas is 1-2 with negative offensive EPA/play in two of three games; Tulsa is 3-0 and has outscored opponents 89-27.
- Arkansas's losses came against Utah and Georgia; Tulsa's 3-0 efficiency sample is against a softer schedule.
- Game total under 50+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- Baylor Hayes was ruled out Friday; Dexter Williams II starts, a confirmed downgrade to Tulsa's passing offense.
- Arkansas averaged -0.10 offensive EPA/play and a 39.8% success rate across its two FBS games.
- Tulsa averaged +0.12 offensive EPA/play across two FBS games; Williams just threw three touchdowns against East Texas A&M.
Long Way Home- Tulsa's first three game totals were 34, 40, and 42; Arkansas's were 45, 53, and 62.
- Offensive EPA averages through three games: Tulsa +0.14, Arkansas -0.03; Arkansas's offense has struggled against stronger opposition.
- Arkansas can create a short-field, high-scoring script after building an early lead.
- Arkansas Razorbacks −7.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Arkansas −7 spread (pushes on exactly a 7-point win; historical exact-7 margin 7.842%; $7,965.8 available / $17,382.23 depth)+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Arkansas -7 pushes on an exact 7-point Arkansas win; Arkansas -7.5 loses there.
- ProphetX prices Arkansas -7 at 49.02¢ versus -7.5 at 44.64¢, only a 4.38¢ gap.
- An Arkansas win by 8 or more makes both -7 and -7.5 winners; the advantage exists only at the exact 7 margin.
- Game total points under 47.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tulsa’s 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.14 and defense EPA allowed is -0.13; Arkansas is -0.04 and +0.23.
- Both teams’ current-season pace is modest: Tulsa 27.64 and Arkansas 26.81 seconds per play.
- The under-47.5 rung is within the 12-point tail limit and captures the recurring 47 total; the 10,371-game FBS histogram recorded 268 totals of 41, 266 of 44 and 203 of 47.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas’s poor defense creates short fields and the game reaches 48-plus despite the pace read.
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +7−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 efficiency: Tulsa +0.14 offensive EPA/play and -0.13 defensive EPA allowed; Arkansas is -0.03 and +0.23.
- Tulsa is 3-0; Arkansas is 1-2, while the PFF overall-grade edge is Tulsa 89.4 to Arkansas 65.8.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas wins by 8 or more, clearing the protected 7-point margin.
Show all 11 picks
- Arkansas Razorbacks first-half spread NO over 9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live score is Arkansas 10, Tulsa 0 with 13:38 left in the half; blended season/live drive rates project a +13.0 final-half mean.
- Own distribution: 2,629 FBS regular games (2023-25) have full-game margin SD 14.71; square-root half scaling gives SD 10.40.
- Pinnacle's captured full-game Arkansas spread is -9.5, which does not support assuming a dominant first-half tail.
- Tulsa needs only to outscore Arkansas by one point over 13:38 to make this NO; one explosive play or turnover can flip the rung.
- KJ Jackson under 219.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3/3 below 219.5 this season: 176, 139, and 210 passing yards.
- FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; conservative model estimate is 60.5%, a 7.2-point margin.
- Tulsa's recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.03, not a favorable top-tier under matchup.
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +10−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days - Game total under 50 (pushes/refunds at exactly 50)+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 50 pushes at exactly 50; adjacent under 49.5 loses there.
- ProphetX prices under 50 at 49.26¢ (+103) versus under 49.5 at 48.54¢ (+106): only a 0.72-point premium.
- The 0.69-point cushion is tiny and vulnerable to rounding and market-specific scoring distribution.
- Game total points under 50+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 three-game scoring averages are Tulsa 29.7 and Arkansas 19.3, a 49.0 combined baseline.
- Tempo is moderate: 2026 average pace is 27.64 seconds/play for Tulsa and 26.81 for Arkansas.
- Tulsa's defense allowed -0.03 EPA/play; Arkansas offense has only a 43.7% success rate and 1.75 points/drive.
- Arkansas's defense allowed +0.30 EPA/play, creating a clear path for Tulsa explosive scores.
Questions
Who won Tulsa vs. Arkansas?
Arkansas won 34-6 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.