FinalEccles Coliseum
Idaho State3-0
28–24Final
Southern Utah1-3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDAH | 0 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
| SOUT | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouthern Utah Thunderbirds spread +10.5 56¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −13% return
- Idaho State Bengals spread −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): clears the 70-point fire threshold.
- Projected score is Idaho State 40.5, Southern Utah 22.1; the +15.5 projected margin is six points beyond -9.5.
- Southern Utah has home field and can exploit the matchup if Idaho State's schedule strength was overstated.
D1 Winner- Composite estimate: 52% cover probability versus roughly 44% sharp-reference probability at the nearby -10 line.
- Idaho State is 3-0 and has outscored opponents 126-44; Southern Utah is 1-3 with a -67 point differential.
- No official injury report or confirmed Southern Utah starter designation is on file; availability information is incomplete.
- Idaho State Bengals spread −10−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Idaho's current EPA profile is stronger defensively (-0.15 allowed/play versus Southern Utah +0.54), with Idaho at +0.15 PROE and Southern Utah at -0.01.
- Most likely ticket loss: Southern Utah keeps the game inside 10; exact 10 is a push, while 7-9 loses the favorite ticket.
- The 2026 advanced sample is thin: cfb_team_game_adv has only one row per team; prior-season coverage is also sparse.
Long Way Home- The direction is supported by results: Idaho State beat Utah State 29-17 and San Diego 59-17; Southern Utah lost at Colorado State 58-24 and to St. Thomas 28-26.
- The moneyline/spread relationship is not a guaranteed mispricing; a favorite can win often without covering 10.
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds spread +10.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Idaho State Bengals +9.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency snapshot: Idaho State +0.02 offensive EPA/play and -0.15 defensive EPA allowed; Southern Utah is +0.06 and +0.54.
- Idaho State is +27.3 points per game in margin through three; Southern Utah is -9.5 through four.
- Rest favors Idaho State: its last game was Sep. 12, while Southern Utah played Sep. 19.
- The efficiency sample is thin and opponent quality differs materially between the schedules.
- Southern Utah +10 spread+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Southern Utah +10 at 54.34¢ (-119), identical to its +9.5 quote; the half-point rung cannot push.
- The push only occurs on an Idaho State win by exactly 10; every other non-cover margin loses the ticket.
- Idaho State Bengals to win+35%Won
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho State is 3-0 with an +82 point differential; Southern Utah is 1-3 at -38.
- PFF overall grade gap is 18.0 points: Idaho State 92.7, Southern Utah 74.7.
- Idaho State's defense grade is 90.7 versus Southern Utah's 67.3, supporting the favorite signal.
- Only one Southern Utah game has charted advanced EPA data; situational efficiency is thin.
Questions
Who won Idaho State vs. Southern Utah?
Idaho State won 28-24 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.