FinalMaverik Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| USU | 7 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total points under 48.5 53¢
Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: Troy's defense allows -0.05 EPA/play; Utah State's offense is the clear efficiency weakness despite a faster 24.51-second pace.
Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-8 on this game · −18% return
- Troy Trojans to win−100%Lost
Taken at +124 on DraftKings
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Quantitative +EV Analyst +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP composite 74/100: Troy projects 55% to win versus 42.6% devigged sharp-market probability.
- Troy is 2-1 this season; Utah State is 0-3, including a 33-0 loss last week.
- Utah State has home field and the market still makes the Aggies roughly a three-point favorite.
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Model-versus-price arithmetic gives approximately +6.8% expected return.
- Utah State is 0-3 and has scored 31 points through three 2026 games.
- The sharper market disagrees: Pinnacle prices Troy +128 with a devigged fair probability near 42.6%.
Long Way Home- Troy averages +0.05 offensive EPA/play versus Utah State -0.20 through three games.
- Troy's defensive EPA allowed is -0.04 versus Utah State's +0.06; success rate is 44.1% versus 38.0%.
- Most likely loss: Utah State's home passing game overcomes its poor three-game efficiency and creates a lead Troy cannot recover.
- Game total points under 44.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo BoardWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- 2026 form: Utah State is -0.20 offensive EPA/play across three games; Troy's defense is -0.04 allowed EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Troy's +0.05 offensive EPA/play and Utah State's +0.06 defensive EPA/play produce an efficient shootout to 45 or more.
Tempo Board- Matchup support: Troy allows -0.05 defensive EPA/play; the PFF card has Troy defense 72.8 versus Utah State offense 52.1.
- Only 3 current-season games: the 2026 tempo and scoring samples are thin.
- Game total points under 48.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Troy's defense allows -0.05 EPA/play; Utah State's offense is the clear efficiency weakness despite a faster 24.51-second pace.
- PFF context: Troy defense grades 72.8 versus Utah State offense 52.1, supporting the low-efficiency side of the projection.
- Both offenses have roughly 10.8% or higher explosive-play rates; one or two long scores can break a low total.
- Troy Trojans spread +5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 three-game sample has Troy at +0.05 EPA/play and .441 success rate versus Utah State at -0.20 and .380.
- Troy's defense allowed -0.04 EPA/play on average; Utah State's defense allowed +0.06, a two-way efficiency mismatch.
- Troy's slower offense (28.64 seconds/play) and lower PROE (.052) reduce the likelihood of Utah State separating quickly.
- Most likely loss is Utah State winning by six or more through home-field advantage and a short-field turnover.
- Game total under 45.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 45.5 wins at exactly 45; adjacent under 45 pushes at exactly 45.
- ProphetX's immediate ladder read priced under 45 at 43.10c and under 45.5 at 43.86c; the checked contract is now graded at 43.48c.
- The quoted offer may change before publication is acted on; no projection edge is claimed.
- Troy Trojans spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Troy +7.5 wins at a 7-point Utah State win; adjacent Troy +7 pushes there.
- ProphetX: +7.5 is 67.74c (-210), versus +7 at 66.67c (-200): only a 1.07c premium for the half-point protection.
- Troy +7.5 still loses on an Utah State win by 8 or more; no projection edge is claimed.
Show all 10 picks
- Troy Trojans moneyline +134−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; the core two measures agree, while level count does not corroborate or oppose.
- Directional coherence: backing Troy Trojans, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference by construction; no independent statistical edge is claimed.
- 2-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +29900
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Troy and Utah State average 28.64 and 24.51 seconds per play; success rates .441 and .380 across three 2026 games.
- Troy explosive rate .112 and Utah State .108; Troy defense allowed -0.04 EPA/play, while Utah State allowed +0.08.
- Minnesota 16.5 plus Washington 27.5 team totals sum to 44, below the full-game 45.
- Either game clearing its total loses the entire two-leg ticket; the open Troy under 44.5 position is not duplicated here.
- Game total under 56.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Utah State's pregame 2026 profile: -0.20 offensive EPA/play and 0.86 points per drive across three games.
- Troy's defense allowed -0.05 EPA/play; the 14-point opening-quarter burst has not changed my low-efficiency baseline enough.
- The live ladder is 56.5 versus a 54.5 Pinnacle reference total; the extra two points provide limited but real pace protection.
- Most likely loss: another quick score or short-field turnover turns the 7-7 opening pace into a shootout.
- Troy Trojans spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Troy averaged 28.3 points and 364 total yards through three games; Utah State averaged 10.3 points and 289 yards.
- Troy's weighted offensive EPA/play is +0.05 versus Utah State's -0.19 through Week 3.
- ProphetX spread ladder supports the same main number at Troy +3, preserving the key field-goal cushion.
- Utah State has home field and faced Utah and Washington; Troy's schedule-adjusted edge is uncertain.
Questions
Who won Troy vs. Utah State?
Utah State won 21-10 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.