Get app
FinalGerald J. Ford Stadium
Missouri State1-2
24–34Final
SMU2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
MOST10001424
SMU01471334

Top model pick, graded

Won

Missouri State +28 spread (pushes if SMU wins by exactly 28) 43¢

Why House Rules likes it: Missouri State +28 pushes/refunds at an exact 28-point SMU win; adjacent +28.5 wins that outcome.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-11 on this game · +2% return

  1. Missouri State Bears spread +32.52 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • SMU leads the three-game sample in offensive EPA/play, .254 to Missouri State's -.039, but fair spread is SMU -29.5.
    • SMU's 52.4% success rate and 16.3% explosiveness justify favoritism, not necessarily a 33-point margin.
    • SMU's explosive offense can turn a modest efficiency edge into a runaway; that is the primary loss path.
    Long Way Home
    • SMU's three-game margin average is +13.0; Missouri State's is -7.3, a roughly 20-point gap before home adjustment.
    • The 32.5-point spread sits about 12 points beyond that simple current-form gap, creating cushion against a rout.
    • SMU scored 56 against UC Davis and Missouri State allowed 50 to Texas A&M; a talent-gap blowout can clear 33 quickly.
  2. Missouri State +28 spread (pushes if SMU wins by exactly 28)High conviction
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Missouri State +28 pushes/refunds at an exact 28-point SMU win; adjacent +28.5 wins that outcome.
    • ProphetX prices Missouri State +28 at +132 (43.10¢) versus +28.5 at +123 (44.84¢): the whole-number rung pays better despite the push.
    • An SMU win by 29 or more loses; an exact 28-point win only returns stake, not profit.
  3. Game total over 60.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. SMU Mustangs spread −30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SMU +0.29 offensive EPA/play and 52.4% success rate versus Missouri State -0.04 and 43.6%.
    • SMU explosive rate 16.3% versus 10.2%; defensive EPA allowed is 0.08 versus Missouri State's 0.10.
    • Three-game 2026 samples make this partial coverage; efficiency estimates may be noisy.
  5. Kendrick Raphael first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +370 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SMU is No. 22 in the current AP Top 25; the ranking gate clears.
    • SMU averages 0.25 EPA/play, 52.4% success and 3.05 points/drive through three games versus Missouri State's 0.10 defensive EPA allowed in the same span.
    • Raphael leads the verified SMU rushing rotation with 39 carries, 275 yards and 4 rushing TDs; he had 24 carries and 3 TDs last week.
    • Three-game samples are noisy and opponent adjustment is limited this early in the season.
  6. SMU Mustangs first-half spread NO over 17.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game spread is -30.5; half-mean anchor is 15.25, supported by SMU’s 0.25 EPA/play versus Missouri State’s -0.04.
    • Only three 2026 games per team make efficiency estimates thin and opponent-sensitive.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Game total under 60.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The six team-games average 59.2 points, below the 60.5 market total, while both offenses average roughly 23.5, 23.9 seconds per play.
    • SMU's 3.05 points per drive versus Missouri State's 2.25 produces a fair total near 57.5, three points below market.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: SMU's Kevin Jennings and Missouri State's Skyler Locklear.
    • SMU's 16.3% explosive-play rate can produce fast points and erase an under in a few possessions.
  2. Game total points over 61.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • three-game samples show SMU at +0.29 offensive EPA/play, .524 success, and .163 explosive rate.
    • Missouri State’s defense allowed +0.10 EPA/play across three games; SMU’s offense has the clearest efficiency mismatch.
    • Both offenses average under 25 seconds per play; SMU’s +.143 PROE and .163 explosive rate support sustained scoring.
    • Most likely loss: SMU controls the game, Missouri State stalls, and the favorite uses clock after building a lead.
  3. Skyler Locklear over 153.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP grade 73/100 (B): 194.1-yard mean across the latest 10 logs, 26.4% above 153.5.
    • Over hit 6/10 overall, 3/5 in the latest five, and 2/3 this season.
    • 2026 pass attempts are 17, 20, and 28; the live FanDuel board lists Locklear for this exact game.
    • SMU carries a 78.5 PFF defense grade and recent defense EPA allowed is -0.01, a difficult matchup.
  4. 1H total under 33.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3-game averages: SMU 3.05 points/drive and 71.3 plays; Missouri State 2.25 points/drive and 63.3 plays.
    • Script projection centers near 30, 31 first-half points, below the 33.5 threshold.
    • Estimated under probability is 59%, versus a 48.5% substitute reference from Kalshi’s 51¢ Over mid-price.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; Texas A&M and Louisville create a difficult opponent-quality mix.
  5. Game total under 61
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing under 61, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the signal is not corroborated by the third measure.
  6. Game total points under 62.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 EPA form: SMU offense is +0.29/play; Missouri State offense is -0.04/play through three games.
    • Blended matchup projection lands near 59, 60 points; SMU averages 2.90 points per drive versus Missouri State's 2.44.
    • The 61.5/62.5 rung adds exact 62-point outcomes; no key-total crossing makes this a projection-led edge.
    • Most likely loss: SMU's 16.3% explosive rate and Missouri State's +0.10 defensive EPA allowed produce 63 or more.
  7. SMU Mustangs spread −32
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SMU’s 2026 offense is +0.25 EPA/play versus Missouri State at -0.04; success rate is 52.4% versus 43.6%, explosive rate 16.3% versus 10.2%.
    • Latest 2026 PFF card favors SMU 90.9 overall and 78.5 defense against Missouri State at 71.2 overall and 57.0 defense.
    • Margin histogram is computable: absolute margins of 31 and 32 occurred 226 and 154 times in 10,887 regular/postseason games; the move from -30.5 to -32 crosses no 3/7/10 key number.
    • SMU has only three 2026 games, including a 31-41 loss to Louisville; its current form is a thin sample.
  8. Game total points over 59.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample, 3 games: SMU averages 24.03 sec/play, +14.4% PROE, 16.3% explosive rate and 52.4% success; Missouri State averages 23.50, +2.7%, 10.2% and 43.6%.
    • Both defenses carry positive defensive EPA allowed: SMU +0.08 and Missouri State +0.10 per play over the three-game sample.
    • REFERENCE check supports a 60-point environment: ProphetX team totals are SMU 46.5 plus Missouri State 14.5, summing to 61.
    • Missouri State scored 0 against Texas A&M, and SMU was held to 31 by Louisville; the matchup can underperform the season efficiency averages.
  9. Missouri State Bears-SMU Mustangs game total under 59
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection context: FBS-only prior scores were Missouri State 12 points/game and SMU 29, a 41-point combined scoring average versus the 59 total; this is a two-game-per-team partial sample, not a simulation.
    • only form is directionally supportive of the under: Missouri State posted -0.23 offensive EPA/play and 0.40 success rate; SMU posted only 0.13 offensive EPA/play.
    • Personnel check: the official SMU preview identifies Kevin Jennings as the returning starter, while Missouri State's official notes identify Skyler Locklear as its starter; no X-signal injury record returned for this game.
    • Partial tier: the FBS-only form sample contains only two games per team after excluding FCS opponents.
  10. Yamir Knight over 49.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2 of 3 2026 games cleared 49.5 receiving yards (70 and 62).
    • Model baseline: 66.7% versus FanDuel -114 implied 53.3%, a 13.4-point margin.
    • SMU's latest 10-game pass-play rate is 56.3%, supporting a favorable receiving environment.
    • The third game finished at 49 yards, only 0.5 below this line.
  11. Kevin Jennings over 2.5 passing touchdowns
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2 of 3 2026 starts cleared 2.5 passing TDs (3 and 5).
    • Model baseline: 66.7% versus FanDuel -120 implied 54.5%, a 12.1-point margin.
    • SMU averages 0.17 offensive EPA/play and 2.70 points/drive in the latest 10-game window.
    • Only three current-season starts; one-game regime change can erase the apparent edge.
  12. SMU Mustangs spread −34.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 sample: SMU posted +0.25 EPA/play and .524 success versus Missouri State’s -.039 and .436.
    • SMU’s explosive rate is .163 versus .102; points per drive are 3.05 versus 2.25, supporting separation.
    • SMU defense grades 78.5 overall and 81.3 coverage; Missouri State defense grades 57.0 and 58.5.
    • Most likely loss: SMU leads comfortably, rotates early, and Missouri State scores a backdoor cover at -34.5.
  13. 1H total over 33.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1-3: SMU averaged 71.3 plays at 23.74 sec/play; Missouri State 63.3 at 23.50.
    • Points baseline: SMU 3.05 and Missouri State 2.25 points/drive average to 2.65; PROE .085 plus explosive rate .132 implies an 11.7% uplift to 2.96.
    • Only three games per team; Missouri State's opening-game 0.0 points/drive shows substantial sample variance.
  14. Game total under 60
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 60 pushes/refunds at exactly 60; adjacent under 60.5 wins at exactly 60.
    • ProphetX under 60 is +101 (49.75¢) versus under 60.5 at -105 (51.22¢); gross payouts are 2.01x versus 1.95x.
    • Under 60 loses at 61 or more; the protection is only the exact-60 push.
  15. SMU Mustangs spread −33.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: SMU 3 versus Missouri State 3; two measures agree, with no third-level corroboration.
    • Backing SMU -33.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches; ProphetX quote is +129.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent check; stale or canceled resting orders can mimic demand.
  16. Missouri State Bears to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SMU has allowed 41 points to Louisville and 24 to Florida State; its defense is not matchup-proof.
    • Missouri State produced 506 yards against Marshall and 584 against Lindenwood before this 0-0 start.
    • Most likely win path: Missouri State sustains its recent explosive offense while SMU’s defensive volatility persists.
    • SMU is ranked No. 22 and has a major talent and home-field advantage; the true upset probability may be below projection.

Questions

Who won Missouri State vs. SMU?

SMU won 34-24 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.