FinalUC Davis Health Stadium
Montana3-1
62–22Final
UC Davis3-1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 17 | 14 | 21 | 10 | 62 |
| UC | 0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMontana Grizzlies spread +3.5 52¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: US contract is open, quoted, straight, and prices Montana +3.5 at 51.5¢.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +17% return
- Montana Grizzlies spread +3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- US contract is open, quoted, straight, and prices Montana +3.5 at 51.5¢.
- Montana lost 17-52 to Oregon State; UC Davis has the higher 2026 team grade, 90.7 to 85.1.
- Game total over 61.5 points+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Non-FBS scoring: Montana averaged 36.0 and UC Davis 41.7 points across their three non-FBS games.
- Latest efficiency flags defensive vulnerability: Montana allowed +0.49 EPA/play and UC Davis +0.50 EPA/play against FBS opponents.
- Quarterbacks are identified for today's matchup: Keali'i Ah Yat has 1,008 passing yards; Treynor Cleeland has 995 yards and nine TDs.
- The current CFB efficiency warehouse has only one advanced-data game for each team, so opponent adjustment is thin.
- Game total under 61.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total 57.6 versus 61.5: 6.3% line edge.
- Current-season combined results are 5 unders in 8 games at this line.
- Scoring/allowing blend projects Montana 28.6 points and UC Davis 29.0.
- Recent totals include 69, 66, and 66, showing meaningful explosive-score variance.
- UC Davis Aggies spread −3−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UC Davis -3 pushes at 3; adjacent UC Davis -3.5 loses there.
- ProphetX prices -3 at 52.15¢ (-109) versus -3.5 at +106; adjusted break-even gap is 1.19 points.
- The 1.19-point adjusted gap is modest; price movement or exchange noise can erase it.
- Game total over 62+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Montana Grizzlies to win+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana produced 338 yards and -0.03 offensive EPA/play against Oregon State; UC Davis produced 233 yards and -0.32 against SMU.
- Both teams are 3-1, but Montana enters ranked No. 5/4 versus UC Davis No. 10; the market still makes UC Davis roughly a 59% favorite.
- Pinnacle had no moneyline; DraftKings/FanDuel also favor UC Davis, so this is a warehouse-based projection rather than a sharp-line confirmation.
- The comparison is a one-game sample against different FBS opponents; opponent adjustment could erase Montana's 105-yard advantage.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eight completed team-game totals average 57.6 points; five of eight finished below 57.5.
- Montana totals were 49, 55, 49, 69; UC Davis totals were 55, 66, 66, 52.
- The projection is that the two recent 66-point UC Davis games overstate this matchup's expected scoring; no injury or quarterback-health issue was reported in the official preview.
- UC Davis has produced two 66-point totals, and Montana's latest total was 69.
Questions
Who won Montana vs. UC Davis?
Montana won 62-22 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.