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FinalStanford Stadium
Georgia Tech1-2
27–34Final
Stanford1-2
Score by period
Team1234T
GT10100727
STAN7317734

Top model pick, graded

Won

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 1st-half winner 52¢

Why Front Runner likes it: First-half model: Georgia Tech leads 58%, tie 8%, Stanford leads 34%; model fair probability is 58%.

Front RunnerDown 19% this season · 62 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-13 on this game · −23% return

  1. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets spread −33 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • 2026 current-sample (3 games): Georgia Tech offense +0.14 EPA/play and 49.2% success versus Stanford defense allowing +0.40 EPA/play.
    • Stanford offense is -0.05 EPA/play with 43.8% success; Georgia Tech defense allowed +0.07 EPA/play in its 3-game sample.
    • Georgia Tech's offensive EPA is inflated by the +0.46 Mercer game; the 3-game sample is thin.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Three-game current-season profile: Georgia Tech leads Stanford in offensive EPA, +0.14 to -0.06, and success rate, 49.7% to 43.8%.
    • Georgia Tech's defensive EPA allowed is +0.09 versus Stanford's +0.40; the matchup profile supports a Yellow Jackets margin beyond the market's three points.
    • Only three current-season games per team; these are unadjusted EPA averages, so opponent strength and regression are material unknowns.
    Long Way Home
    • through three 2026 games, Georgia Tech leads Stanford in offensive EPA/play (+0.14 vs -0.06), success rate (49.7% vs 43.8%), and points/drive (2.06 vs 1.11).
    • Projection is Georgia Tech by more than a field goal; the efficiency gap is larger than the near-pick'em spread implies.
    • Stanford home field and a one-score finish can turn a better side into a push or loss.
  2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −146 on FanDuel

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 2026 three-game profile favors Georgia Tech: average offensive EPA +0.14 versus Stanford -0.06; Stanford's defense has allowed +0.40 EPA/play.
    • Team grades favor Georgia Tech 80.6 overall to Stanford's 69.5, with a 79.8-to-67.2 defensive-grade edge.
    • L10 hit-rate gate is not preferred: Georgia Tech is 4-6 and Stanford 3-7 over the last 10; both are 1-2 this season.
    Key Number CFB
    • Georgia Tech recent off-EPA/play is +0.17 versus Stanford's -0.05; Stanford's defense allows +0.21.
    • PFF 2026 team card favors Georgia Tech 80.6 overall to Stanford 69.5, including defense 79.8 to 67.2.
    • Georgia Tech's recent defense allows +0.17 EPA/play, leaving a path for Stanford to keep this close or win at home.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Three-game efficiency profile: Georgia Tech +0.14 offensive EPA/play versus Stanford -0.05; Stanford allows +0.40 defensive EPA/play versus Georgia Tech +0.07.
    • Pinnacle showed Georgia Tech -148; ProphetX is six American-price points better, while the projection supplies the independent direction.
    • Only three current-season games are in the efficiency sample; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  3. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 1st-half winner2 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsFront Runner, Kickoff Script
    Why 2 models like it
    Front Runner
    • First-half model: Georgia Tech leads 58%, tie 8%, Stanford leads 34%; model fair probability is 58%.
    • Pinnacle's full-game Georgia Tech -3 at -103 supplies direction; first-half scaling and efficiency inputs produce a +2.0-point mean.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent-adjusted inputs remain noisy and may overstate the gap.
    Kickoff Script
    • Three-game 2026 averages: Georgia Tech +0.14 offensive EPA/play; Stanford −0.05.
    • Georgia Tech posts 49.2% success rate and 2.06 points/drive versus Stanford's 43.8% and 1.11.
    • Only three games per team; opponent-quality adjustment remains noisy.
  4. Under 48.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 46.7 points from 21.7 combined possessions; Stanford averages -0.05 offensive EPA/play and 1.11 points/drive.
    • Three-game samples include 28- and 33-point blowouts; garbage-time contamination limits this to Tier 2.
  5. Under 48 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair is 51.5% under 48; possession output is 46.9 points.
    • Current 2026 PPD averages are 2.06 for Georgia Tech and 1.11 for Stanford; Stanford's offense is -0.06 EPA/play with a 0.44 success rate.
    • The load-bearing factor is possession efficiency: Stanford's low scoring-drive profile suppresses the Over tail despite Georgia Tech's explosive-rate advantage.
    • Most likely loss path: Georgia Tech's 0.15 current explosive rate creates short fields or chunk scores and the game reaches 49.
  6. Game total points under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stanford's 2026 offense is -0.06 EPA/play, 43.8% success, and 1.11 points per drive across 3 games.
    • Georgia Tech's current defense allows +0.09 EPA/play; Stanford's -0.06 offensive EPA/play is the matchup's clearest scoring drag.
    • Current offensive pace averages 26.38 seconds/play for Georgia Tech and 23.84 for Stanford; Stanford's +0.21 PROE has produced inefficient passing, not sustained scoring.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech exploits Stanford's defense for 35-plus points and Stanford adds enough late scoring to clear 48.
Show all 16 picks
  1. 1H game total over 23.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp full-game total is 48.5; observed first-half drives averaged 6.33 for Georgia Tech and 6.67 for Stanford.
    • 25.26-second blended pace supports 12.2 conservative first-half drives after stoppage haircut.
    • PROE averages 11.4% and 21.4%; explosive rates 14.8% and 11.0%, yielding a specific 4.8% uplift proxy.
    • Starting-QB gate is supported by plurality starts and current coverage, but a late change would invalidate the scoring estimate.
  2. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 48 pushes at exactly 48 total points; adjacent under 47.5 loses at 48.
    • The apparent 1.09-point price gap is modest and may reflect exchange rounding, commission, or matchup information.
  3. Stanford Cardinal +3 spread
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX priced Stanford +3 at -103 versus Stanford +3.5 at -120; the whole rung is unusually favorable relative to its adjacent half-point rung.
    • Stanford +3 still loses on every Georgia Tech win by 4 or more; the push protection is narrow.
  4. Stanford to win
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels corroborate neutrally: Stanford 3 versus Georgia Tech 3; the two primary depth measures qualify, with meaningful raw size on both sides.
    • Venue self-reference can reflect stale, correlated, or strategic orders rather than predictive information.
  5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The -3/-3.5 rung pair crosses key 3; CFB margin 3 occurred 985 of 10,905 games (9.0%), so flat interpolation is inappropriate.
    • 2026 efficiency: Georgia Tech +0.14 offensive EPA/play versus Stanford -0.05; Stanford's defensive EPA allowed is +0.40.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Georgia Tech 80.6 overall to 69.5, including a 79.8-to-67.2 defensive-grade gap.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech wins by 1-3, with exactly 3 losing at -3.5 rather than pushing.
  6. Game total points over 48
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team totals 26.5 + 22.5 sum to 49, one point above its full-game 48.
    • Stanford’s defense has allowed +0.40 EPA/play in the 2026 sample; Georgia Tech’s offense averages +0.14 EPA/play and 2.06 points/drive.
    • The current-season sample is only three games per team, with Stanford scoring 7 and 6 points in its last two.
  7. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets first-half spread YES over 10.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,387 completed 2024, 26 CFB games: full-game margin SD 15.81; largest masses were 3 (200), 7 (173), and 10 (99).
    • Pinnacle made Georgia Tech a 3-point full-game favorite; half-mean projection is Georgia Tech +1.5.
    • Team form is a three-game sample; Georgia Tech’s +0.14 EPA/play and Stanford’s -0.05 may regress.
  8. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game pace and points-per-drive inputs project approximately 12.5 first-quarter points.
    • Georgia Tech averages 2.06 points/drive; Stanford averages 1.11, with the EPA matchup favoring Georgia Tech possessions.
    • A first quarter has roughly five possessions per team; one stalled drive or explosive play dominates.
  9. Georgia Tech −4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 for Georgia Tech -4 and 3 for Stanford +4; two of three measures agree, and backing Georgia Tech -4, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
  10. Game total over 56.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection, 17 points were scored with 3:12 left in the first quarter; that pace extrapolates near 69 points.
    • Over 56.5 needs only 40 more points across the remaining 48 minutes.
    • Stanford's live offense shows 1.04 EPA/play, 66.7% success and a 33.3% explosive-play rate.
    • Early scoring is a tiny sample and one explosive Stanford drive may be an outlier.

Questions

Who won Georgia Tech vs. Stanford?

Stanford won 34-27 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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