FinalMackay Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 36 |
| NEV | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 55 40¢
Why House Rules likes it: over 55 wins at 56+ and pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at 55.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-10 on this game · −18% return
- Air Force Falcons spread −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
4 modelsCFB Heater, Drift +2Why 4 models like it
CFB Heater- Sportsbook reference also makes Air Force the favorite, keeping the side direction consistent.
- The price is near even money, so the signal has no independently measured model edge.
Drift- Power rating: 55.5% cover; Air Force has +0.26 offensive EPA/play and 53.1% success versus Nevada's +0.08 and 45.2%.
- Only two Air Force and three Nevada games inform the efficiency rating; early-season sample makes this partial coverage.
ProphetX Pairs- Air Force leads Nevada 0.26 to 0.08 in current-season offensive EPA/play.
- Air Force leads 53.8% to 45.2% in current-season offensive success rate; own cover estimate is 55%.
- Air Force has only two current-season advanced-stat games, so this is a Partial/Tier 2 leg.
Long Way Home- Air Force posted +0.23 and +0.29 offensive EPA/play in its first two games.
- Nevada's last two offensive EPA/play marks are -0.03 and -0.18, with success rates below 46%.
- Most likely loss: Nevada's home-field tempo and explosive plays keep this inside one score.
- Game total over 55+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- over 55 wins at 56+ and pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at 55.
- ProphetX quotes +152 (39.68¢) on both over 55 and over 55.5; the whole rung has the same win region plus push protection.
- No projection edge is claimed; totals of 56 or more make both adjacent contracts win.
- Over 50 total points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Air Force current offense: 0.26 EPA/play and 3.29 points/drive; Nevada current defense allows approximately neutral EPA/play.
- Air Force has only two current-season advanced rows; Nevada has three, so prior-season blending is material.
- Air Force Falcons over 27.5 team points+82%Won
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA/play is +0.26: Air Force offense 0.26 minus Nevada defensive allowance 0.01.
- Only two Air Force and three Nevada current-season games support the partial sample.
- Nevada Wolf Pack spread +5.5+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Air Force's 2026 offense leads: +0.26 EPA/play and 53.1% success versus Nevada's +0.07 and 44.6%.
- Nevada's defense has allowed +0.01 EPA/play versus Air Force's +0.10, narrowing the matchup gap.
- Live CFB predictor makes Air Force roughly a 1.1-point favorite; +5.5 gives Nevada about 4.4 points of fair-line cushion.
- Air Force has the rest edge after a September 12 game; Nevada played September 19.
- Air Force Falcons 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Screen estimate: Air Force first-half win 63%; Kalshi ladder devigs to about 57.4% as a substitute reference.
- Air Force averaged 0.26 offensive EPA/play, 53.8% success, and 3.29 points/drive in two 2026 games.
- Nevada averaged 0.08 EPA/play, 45.2% success, and 2.24 points/drive across three 2026 games.
- Only two Air Force and three Nevada games; opponent-quality adjustment remains thin.
Show all 15 picks
- Nevada +7 spread (pushes if Air Force wins by exactly 7)+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nevada +7 pushes when Air Force wins by exactly 7; adjacent Nevada +7.5 wins on that result.
- ProphetX quotes Nevada +7 at -134 (57.26¢) versus +7.5 at -150 (60.00¢); the whole-rung protection is underpriced relative to the exact-7 mass.
- Air Force wins by 8 or more and Nevada +7 loses while the adjacent +7.5 wins; only the one-point margin separates the contracts.
- Game total under 50−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence: backing under 50, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The corroborating book-level measure is tied 3-3, not favorable to under.
- Nevada Wolf Pack to win−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence: backing Nevada moneyline, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The corroborating book-level measure is tied 3-3, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
- Nevada Wolf Pack spread +10.5+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence check: backing Nevada +10.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels; the signal is only two-measure consistent.
- Air Force Falcons spread −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB histogram: exact 7-point margins occurred 856 of 10,921 games (7.8%); -6.5 captures the key-7 mass that -7.5 misses.
- Air Force 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.16 versus Nevada's +0.05; PFF overall grades are 91.1 versus 76.5.
- Sportsbook reference has Air Force around -5.5 and its moneyline between -215 and -235, corroborating the Air Force direction.
- Air Force's recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.16, worse than Nevada's +0.09; Nevada can score enough to keep this inside seven.
- Game total points under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Air Force and Nevada recent pace is 29.7 and 26.4 seconds/play, while Air Force is -0.19 PROE; the run-heavy matchup supports clock consumption.
- Air Force's recent offense EPA/play is +0.16 and Nevada's is +0.05; efficient drives can break the under quickly.
- Air Force Falcons first-half spread over 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,387-game 2024, 26 signed-margin SD is 22.95; sqrt-half scaling gives 16.23, not naive 11.47.
- Pinnacle shows Air Force -5.5 full game; early margins average Air Force +14 in two, Nevada +5 in three.
- QB/weather gate cleared, live Sep. 26 reporting names Liam Szarka and Carter Jones; Reno forecast has 5, 10 mph wind, gusts to 20, essentially 0% precipitation.
- First-half scores are not independent normal draws; explosive plays, special teams, and college key-number mass can distort the scaled distribution.
- Air Force Falcons to win+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Air Force's current offense averages +0.26 EPA/play and 53.8% success across 2 games; Nevada's 3-game defense averages +0.00 EPA/play allowed.
- Air Force's PFF preview card leads Nevada 85.1, 64.6 in offense and 78.4, 71.6 in defense; the film-grade gap supports the efficiency mismatch.
- Nevada's offense averages only +0.08 EPA/play and 45.2% success across 3 games, versus Air Force's stronger current offensive profile.
- Air Force has only 2 current-season efficiency rows; prior-season rows are the flagged fallback, so this is LEAN and half-sized.
- Game total over 49+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Air Force's offense is +0.26 EPA/play with a 53.8% success rate; Nevada's offense is +0.09 EPA/play.
- Nevada's defense has been stingier: +0.01 allowed EPA/play versus Air Force's +0.10.
Questions
Who won Air Force vs. Nevada?
Air Force won 36-33 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.