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FinalHusky Stadium
Minnesota2-1
27–24Final
Washington3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
MINN1473327
WASH01001424

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Golden Gophers to win 21¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-9 on this game · +70% return

  1. Minnesota Golden Gophers to winLong shot3 models agree
    +376%Won

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsCFB Heater, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
    Why 3 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • Minnesota is still a roughly 20% market-probability underdog; one-score and late-game variance are substantial.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • Minnesota is 6-4 over the recent 10-game window, 4-1 in its last five, and 2-1 this season.
      • Washington is 3-0 and carries an elite 89.6 overall defense grade, including 87.5 coverage.
      Long Way Home
      • Minnesota's 2026 scoring margin is +20.3 points/game (113-52); Washington's is +16.0 (88-40).
      • A simple offense/defense blend from the three games projects a near-level matchup before home-field adjustment, not an 11.5-point class gap.
      • Washington is at home and the main market still makes it an 11.5-point favorite; that is the clearest opposing signal.
    • Minnesota Golden Gophers spread +11.52 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX CFB Lines
      • Load-bearing margin distribution: blended EPA/PPD model makes Washington a 9.5-point favorite with SD 17; Minnesota covers +11.5 at 54.5%.
      • Sep. 26 pregame reporting identifies Drake Lindsey and Demond Williams Jr.; they led their teams in last-game pass attempts, 31 and 33.
      • Washington's current defense allowed -0.16 EPA/play; its efficiency can turn this into a separation game.
      Key Number CFB
      • 2026 efficiency form: Minnesota offense +0.19 EPA/play versus Washington +0.10; the matchup projects closer than the moneyline narrative.
      • Key-number density: exact CFB margins of 10 occurred 458/10,932 times (4.2%) versus 240/10,932 at 11 (2.2%).
      • Washington's defense grades 89.6 in the latest PFF team card and allows -0.16 EPA/play; a few short fields can turn this into a 12-plus-point win.
    • Game total points under 45.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Three-game 2026 samples: Minnesota averages +0.23 offensive EPA/play and Washington +0.15; Washington's defense allows -0.16 EPA/play.
      • The current scoring sample averages 42.3 combined points; Washington's 89.6 PFF defense and Minnesota's 29.36-second pace support the under.
      • Most likely loss: Washington's 16.2% explosive rate creates short fields or early touchdowns, forcing Minnesota into catch-up tempo.
      Key Number CFB
      • The matchup projects to the mid-40s: Minnesota's 2026 offense averages +0.23 EPA/play, while Washington's defense averages -0.16 EPA/play allowed.
      • Washington's latest PFF defense grade is 89.6, including 87.5 coverage and 91.8 run defense; Minnesota's offense grade is 77.8.
      • Most likely loss: Washington's explosive offense repeats its 4.36 points-per-drive performance from last week against Minnesota's +0.14 defensive EPA allowed average.
    • Washington Huskies spread −11.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    • Minnesota Golden Gophers spread +12.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • game 2026 sample: Minnesota leads Washington in offense EPA/play (.2302 to .1456) and success rate (.5083 to .4770).
      • Minnesota's offense is +.2302 EPA/play against Washington's -.1585 defensive EPA/play allowed; the matchup supports staying inside 12.5.
      • CFB predictor context projects an 8.6-point Washington margin, below this 12.5-point rung; it is context, not the placement.
      • Washington's defense is elite by the current card: -.1585 EPA/play allowed and an 89.6 PFF defensive grade.
    • 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
      +163%Won

      Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Three-game points-per-drive averages sum to 5.34; pace projects roughly 4.5, 4.7 drives per team in a half.
      • The resulting 1H projection is approximately 24, 25 points, with 45, 50% in Q1 implying about 11, 12.5.
      • Both quarterbacks are confirmed starters; Minnesota and Washington posted positive recent PROE of 0.22 and 0.20.
      • A first quarter has only a handful of possessions; one punt, turnover, or missed field goal can decide it.
    Show all 16 picks
    1. Washington Huskies 1st-half winnerFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Washington averages 2.57 points per drive across three games; Minnesota’s defense allows +0.14 EPA/play.
      • Washington’s matchup EPA estimate is materially stronger against Minnesota’s defense than Minnesota’s is against Washington.
      • Washington’s 0.16 explosive-play rate beats Minnesota’s 0.13; both projected starters are confirmed.
      • Only three games of 2026 data; opponent quality is uneven on both schedules.
    2. Washington Huskies spread −14 (pushes at exactly 14)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Washington -14 pushes if the Huskies win by exactly 14; Washington -14.5 loses on that margin.
      • ProphetX quotes Washington -14 at 42.37c versus -14.5 at 43.10c; the push-protected rung is cheaper.
      • The adjacent -14.5 comparison is venue self-reference, not independent sharp validation.
    3. Game total under 45
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX under 45 is 47.62¢ versus under 45.5 at 50.00¢: only a 2.38-point price gap.
      • The adjacent-rung gap understates the measured push mass by 0.47 points.
      • The 0.47-point gap is modest; matchup-specific total distribution may differ from the 10,908-game sample.
    4. Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    5. Minnesota Golden Gophers moneyline +375Long shot
      +376%Won

      Taken at 21¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels: Minnesota 3 versus Washington 3; this is two-measure support, with levels neutral.
      • Directional check: backing Minnesota, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Venue self-reference is not an independent validation; no sharp reference is used as the primary bar.
    6. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +29900

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Troy and Utah State average 28.64 and 24.51 seconds per play; success rates .441 and .380 across three 2026 games.
      • Troy explosive rate .112 and Utah State .108; Troy defense allowed -0.04 EPA/play, while Utah State allowed +0.08.
      • Minnesota 16.5 plus Washington 27.5 team totals sum to 44, below the full-game 45.
      • Either game clearing its total loses the entire two-leg ticket; the open Troy under 44.5 position is not duplicated here.
    7. Game total under 45.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Washington has allowed -0.16 EPA/play versus Minnesota's +0.14 allowed, a 0.30 defensive gap favoring suppression.
      • Both teams' three-game pace averages are slow: Washington 28.34 and Minnesota 29.36 seconds per play.
      • Personnel check: Drake Lindsey and Demond Williams Jr. each started the latest Sep. 19 games; no quarterback absence surfaced in current checks.
      • Minnesota's offense is strong early: +0.23 EPA/play and .5083 success rate, creating a clear over path.
    8. Washington Huskies first-half spread NO over 6.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's full-game Washington -11.5 scales to a -5.75 first-half mean; current pace/PPD/EPA inputs do not justify a larger half margin.
      • 537 completed 2026 CFB games produce a 18.43-point full-game margin SD; sqrt-half scaling gives 13.04 points, not 9.22.
      • At the exact 6.5 rung, the mean-plus-SD distribution gives Washington-over probability about 48.5%, so NO is about 51.5%; conservative rounded reference is 51%.
      • Only three 2026 games per team: Minnesota's .230 offensive EPA/play and Washington's -.128 defensive EPA/play are thin, opponent-sensitive samples.
    9. 1H total over 23.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Three-game window: Minnesota averaged 67.3 plays, 29.36 seconds/play, 10.67 drives; Washington 71.3, 28.09, 11.67.
      • QB gate passed: recent starts and the current preview identify Drake Lindsey and Demond Williams Jr.
      • Only a 0.5-point gap separates the 24.0 projection from the 23.5 rung; variance dominates.
    10. Minnesota Golden Gophers spread −5.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX offers Minnesota -5.5 at +100 while its own Minnesota moneyline is +144; a cover necessarily includes a win.
      • Live state: Minnesota leads Washington 7-0 at 5:39 of the 1st quarter, supporting the spread direction.
      • The extreme disagreement may be a ProphetX live-feed or team/line mapping error rather than exploitable mispricing.

    Questions

    Who won Minnesota vs. Washington?

    Minnesota won 27-24 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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