FinalBobcat Stadium (MT)
Northern Arizona3-1
14–28Final
Montana State4-0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| MONT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 57.5 55¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Polymarket Under 57.5 is aligned with the sharper sportsbook reference, where 57.5 Under is -147 at Pinnacle.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −38% return
- Game total under 57.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Polymarket Under 57.5 is aligned with the sharper sportsbook reference, where 57.5 Under is -147 at Pinnacle.
- Montana State has scored 160 points in four games; a fast start can break the Under.
Long Way Home- The current efficiency gap supports a lower-scoring path than 57.5 despite Montana State's favorite status.
- One game per team makes EPA and scoring rates thin and vulnerable to opponent-quality noise.
- Over 57.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 days - Montana State Bobcats −21.5−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100: clears the 70 fire threshold with a qualifying edge.
- Dimers projects Montana State 40-17, a 23-point margin versus the posted -21.5 spread.
- That 1.5-point projection cushion is roughly 7% relative to the spread; -114 implies a 53.3% break-even rate.
- The 23-point projection is only 1.5 points above the number, so late-game variance can erase the edge.
- Montana State −21 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana State -21 refunds at exactly 21; adjacent -21.5 loses at exactly 21.
- A push is a refund, not a win; the contract still needs Montana State to win by at least 22 for profit.
- Montana State Bobcats spread −30.5−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Latest populated 2026 PFF card favors Montana State: 93.9 overall and 90.9 defense versus NAU's 83.0 and 79.6.
- Charted 2026 EPA is sharply divergent: MSU +0.02 offense/-0.18 defense allowed; NAU -0.49/+0.27.
- Justin Lamson and Ty Pennington were both identified as the starters in this wake's current web check.
- Montana State must win by 31; a result in the 21-30 range loses despite a Bobcats win.
Questions
Who won Northern Arizona vs. Montana State?
Montana State won 28-14 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.