FinalMemorial Stadium (Terre Haute
North Dakota3-1
42–35Final
Indiana State2-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 7 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 42 |
| IU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIndiana State Sycamores spread +18 53¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: The +18 rung is preferable to +19.5: the empirical CFB margin histogram has 164 games at 19, so the extra 1.5 points are not a key-number jump.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −19% return
- Game total under 58.5 (wins at exactly 58; no push)−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 58.5 wins when the game totals exactly 58; Under 58 instead pushes at 58.
- Under 58.5 is 56.14¢ versus Under 58 at 55.95¢, only 0.19¢ more for a full win rather than a push at 58.
- This is not a scoring projection; 59 or more total points loses the contract.
- Indiana State +18.5 spread (wins at exactly an 18-point loss; no push)−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Indiana State +18.5 wins if it loses by exactly 18; Indiana State +18 instead pushes.
- ProphetX +18.5 is 54.34¢ versus +18 at 53.49¢, only 0.85¢ more to convert that push into a win.
- ProphetX quotes can move before kickoff, and the observed adjacent-rung gap is small relative to game variance.
- Indiana State Sycamores spread +18+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +18 rung is preferable to +19.5: the empirical CFB margin histogram has 164 games at 19, so the extra 1.5 points are not a key-number jump.
- North Dakota's current two-game charted form is -0.16 offensive EPA/play; Indiana State is +0.24, supporting a tighter margin than the PFF grade gap alone implies.
- PFF's latest 2026 card favors North Dakota 93.1-82.8 overall, but Indiana State's +18 price captures substantial favorite strength while retaining the key-number cushion.
- Most likely loss: North Dakota's 85.2 defensive PFF grade and Indiana State's first-time starter produce a margin of 19 or more.
- Game total over 56.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 score logs: North Dakota scored 42, 62, 47, and 7; Indiana State scored 21, 42, 19, and 39.
- Six of those eight team-game totals cleared 54.5, while the board's sharper reference is 58 over +109 at Pinnacle.
- The market may be overweighting North Dakota's 7-point Nebraska result; the prior three games produced 63, 88, and 70 total points.
- The Nebraska game is the freshest North Dakota data point and a similar defensive script keeps this below 57.
- Indiana State Sycamores to win−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Indiana State posted +0.24 offensive EPA/play and 284 yards in 2026; North Dakota posted -0.16 and 205.
- Both teams opened against FBS opponents; Indiana State produced 218 net passing yards versus North Dakota's 106.
- One-game samples make EPA and yardage highly vulnerable to opponent and game-script noise.
Questions
Who won North Dakota vs. Indiana State?
North Dakota won 42-35 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.