FinalKroger Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| UK | 7 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKentucky −17 62¢
Why House Rules likes it: Kentucky -17 wins by 18+; exactly a 17-point win pushes/refunds, while Kentucky -16.5 wins at 17.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-6 on this game · +1% return
- Game total under 53−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 53 pushes at exactly 53, while neighboring under 52.5 loses at 53.
- ProphetX quoted under 53 at +115 (46.51¢) versus under 52.5 at +120 (45.45¢): only a 1.06-point implied gap for the push rung.
- Under 53 still loses at 54 or more; the push only occurs at exactly 53.
- Kentucky −17+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kentucky -17 wins by 18+; exactly a 17-point win pushes/refunds, while Kentucky -16.5 wins at 17.
- ProphetX prices Kentucky -17 at 61.83¢ versus -16.5 at 62.69¢, only a 0.86-point gap.
- The adjacent-rung gap is 2.56 percentage points below the historical push mass, leaving the whole-number push option undercharged.
- Historical all-game CFB margin frequency may not match this matchup; this is not a projection claim.
- Game total over 54+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing over 54, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the direction.
- South Alabama Jaguars +21−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3, neutral; the thin-at-quote and deep-total measures provide the required two-of-three agreement.
- Backing South Alabama +21, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Fresh quote: -108.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels, so this clears by exactly two measures.
- Kenny Darby over 61.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 60% over versus FanDuel -114 implying 53.3%, a 6.7-point margin.
- Darby cleared 61.5 in 2 of 3 2026 games: 74, 45, and 64 receiving yards.
- His two over outcomes were 74 and 64 yards; the lone miss was 45 yards.
- The sample is only three games, and the warehouse has no receiving-target counts for these appearances.
- Kenny Minchey over 245.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 60% over versus FanDuel -114 implying 53.3%, a 6.7-point margin.
- Minchey cleared 245.5 in 2 of 3 2026 games: 301, 146, and 252 passing yards.
- Kentucky's recent pass-play rate is 50.6%; Minchey reached 27-plus attempts in two of three games.
- Only three current-season games provide the main sample; prior-year appearances were mostly backup-level.
Show all 10 picks
- First-half total over 29.5+376%Won
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weighted season PROE is +4.4%; applying that explicit uplift produces a 32.3-point projection, above 29.5.
- Weather is benign: 8-mph gust and zero precipitation, so no possession-count reduction.
- Live state is 7-0 with 27 seconds left in Q1; 23 points still need to score for YES.
- South Alabama Jaguars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Alabama is 3-0 with +0.17 average offensive EPA/play and 49.5% success rate through three games.
- Kentucky's defense allowed +0.18 EPA/play across its last two games; South Alabama's offense has produced 0.19 and 0.27 in its last two.
- Most likely ticket loss: Kentucky's home-field and SEC physicality create an early multi-score lead that removes upset paths.
- South Alabama's sample is only three games and is not fully schedule-adjusted.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread +21−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Alabama averages 0.19 EPA/play and 49.9% success; Kentucky averages 0.23 and 52.0%.
- South Alabama averages 3.29 points/drive versus Kentucky's 2.58, inconsistent with a routine 21-point loss.
- Official UK preview reports South Alabama averages 200+ rushing and passing yards and leads the nation in time of possession.
- Kentucky has the better current explosive-play rate: 17.1% versus South Alabama's 13.3%.
- South Alabama Jaguars over 53 total points+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX team totals are Kentucky 37.5 and South Alabama 16.5; their 54-point sum sits one point above the full-game 53.
- 2026 three-game samples show Kentucky at .171 explosive rate/.520 success and South Alabama at .133/.499.
- Tempo check: Kentucky's three-game pace is 27.50, 31.75 seconds per play; South Alabama's two valid pace rows are 29.47 and 29.80, with 74 plays in each.
- Most likely loss: Kentucky controls the game after taking a lead while South Alabama stalls, leaving the total in the high 40s or low 50s.
Questions
Who won South Alabama vs. Kentucky?
Kentucky won 45-21 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.