FinalInfoCision Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 7 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 38 |
| AKR | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total points under 53 51¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: 2026 game totals average 47.0 across UNLV's and Akron's six games; only 2 of 6 cleared 53.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-9 on this game · −80% return
- Akron Zips spread +13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsProphetX Pairs, Saturday Board Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- CFB predictor projects UNLV by 9.8 points, leaving a 3.7-point cushion against this number.
- Through three games, Akron leads UNLV in offensive EPA/play (0.06 vs -0.05), success rate (49.3% vs 45.0%), and explosiveness (14.1% vs 11.8%).
- Roggow is described as likely rather than officially confirmed; cfb_injury_x_signal had no game-specific report, so quarterback status remains a live uncertainty.
Saturday Board Pairs- 2026 current sample (3 games): Akron +0.06 EPA/play versus UNLV -0.05.
- Success rate favors Akron .493 to .451; the home team has the steadier down-to-down offense.
- Akron's starter is expected, not formally announced: Roggow led 25 attempts last week, with Broughton/Poffenbarger personnel uncertainty.
Long Way Home- matchup estimate is roughly 54% Akron cover versus ProphetX's 49.75¢ price.
- Akron has averaged +0.06 offensive EPA/play and a 49.3% success rate through three 2026 games.
- Most likely loss: UNLV's defense creates short fields and the favorite wins by 14 or more.
- Akron Zips to win−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Akron’s recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.01/play versus UNLV’s +0.12.
- UNLV is 1-2 and just lost 44-6; Akron is also 1-2 but owns home field.
- Akron remains a substantial underdog; the predictor still projects UNLV by 9.86 points.
Long Way Home- Akron averages +0.06 EPA/play and 52.7% success across three 2026 games; UNLV averages -0.05 EPA/play and 45.0%.
- Akron's 14.1% explosive-play rate exceeds UNLV's 11.8%; home field adds to the underdog case.
- Akron scored 7 points and posted -0.24 EPA/play at Minnesota last week; that offense can fail outright.
- Akron Zips spread +10−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2014, 25 CFB margin histogram: exact 10 occurred 441 times versus 115 at 9 and 232 at 11.
- 2026 EPA/play: Akron offense +0.06 versus UNLV −0.05; success rate 49.3% versus 45.0%.
- Akron is home; UNLV has a 25.63-second pace and 7.1% PROE, supporting a less explosive favorite profile.
- Akron allowed +0.17 defensive EPA/play versus UNLV's +0.15, leaving separation-game risk.
- Akron +10.5 (no push; exact-10 margin is a win; 4.252% historical mass)−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Akron +10.5 wins if UNLV wins by 10 or fewer; an exact 10-point margin is a win, not a push.
- ProphetX prices Akron +10 at +128 (43.86c) and Akron +10.5 at +120 (45.45c), only a 1.59-point implied gap.
- Any UNLV win by 11 or more loses; the half-point contract has no push protection.
- Akron +12−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels corroborate: Akron 3 versus UNLV 2; ProphetX quote is +116, or 46.3¢ contract price.
- Directional coherence check: backing Akron +12, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- REFERENCE only; no independent sharp reference is used, so this is not projection-based evidence.
- Game total points under 53+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 game totals average 47.0 across UNLV's and Akron's six games; only 2 of 6 cleared 53.
- UNLV's offense is -0.05 EPA/play, and its PFF offense/pass-block grades are 63.4/55.8.
- The 53 total is outside the desk's primary 41/44/47 key cluster; no key-number premium is required to cross this rung.
- Both defenses are allowing positive EPA: UNLV +0.15 and Akron +0.17 per play this season.
Show all 7 picks
- UNLV Rebels @ Akron Zips total points over 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX team totals are UNLV over 33.5 -120/$500 and Akron over 19.5 -120/$500; their 53-point sum sits above the full-game 52.5.
- PROJECTION support, 3 games each: UNLV offense posted .450 success/.118 explosive; Akron posted .493/.141, while defenses allowed +.150/+ .168 EPA per play.
- QB gate cleared: Jackson Arnold led UNLV's latest pass-attempt ledger; Brayden Roggow led Akron's, and a game-day preview says Roggow likely starts.
- Most likely loss: UNLV repeats its 6-point North Texas output and Akron repeats 7 points at Minnesota.
Questions
Who won UNLV vs. Akron?
UNLV won 38-10 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.