FinalMcLane Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| BAY | 0 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDJ Lagway passing yards −114
Why Picks with pink pro reader likes it: 8 of DJ Lagway's last 10 appearances finished under 265.5 passing yards.
Picks with pink pro readerDown 3% this season · 552 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-5 on this game · +26% return
- Baylor Bears spread −9.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Three current 2026 games each: Baylor's last-5 offense EPA/play is +0.02 versus Colorado's -0.04; success rate is .4789 versus .4413.
- Baylor's last-5 defensive EPA allowed is -0.09 versus Colorado's +0.04; PFF defense grades 90.5 for Baylor versus 78.3 for Colorado.
- Most likely loss: Colorado's explosive plays keep the game within 9.5 despite Baylor's defensive and EPA edge.
Long Way Home- Baylor's 2026 margin is +20.0 per game; Colorado's is -0.7 through three games.
- Baylor allows 11.7 points per game; Colorado allows 25.0, including 41 at Northwestern.
- Colorado's offense can create explosive plays; its 2026 explosive rate is 12.0%.
- Game total under 55.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Cross-team scoring projection is 47.2 points versus the 55.5 line, an 8.3-point (14.9%) gap.
- Baylor carries a 90.5 defensive grade and Colorado 78.3; the matchup has two credible defensive anchors.
- Baylor QB DJ Lagway is officially probable and Colorado's projected starter is not an official confirmed lineup; quarterback efficiency could change the total.
Key Number CFB- CFB total histogram: 55 occurred 412 times versus 182 at 56 across 10,845 games; the 55.5 rung captures the denser side.
- 2026 EPA form: Baylor defense allowed -0.28 EPA/play; Colorado offense was +0.02, supporting a lower scoring projection.
- Most likely loss: Baylor's home offense creates explosives or short fields and the game reaches 56 or more.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Power model: Baylor by 8.0; Colorado covers +9.5 at 54.5%, a 2.6-point gap over the 51.9% sharp fair price.
- Pinnacle -9.5 (+102/-115) devigs to Baylor 48.1% / Colorado 51.9% at the exact rung.
- Movement favors Colorado: Polymarket Baylor-cover probability fell from 49.5% open to 48.5% current, a 1.0-point move.
- Baylor's three-game defensive EPA allowed averages -0.26/play versus Colorado's -0.01; that gap could overwhelm the cushion.
- DJ Lagway passing yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8 of DJ Lagway's last 10 appearances finished under 265.5 passing yards.
- Baylor's 90.5 coverage grade is the strongest matchup signal in this game.
- Fresh reporting says Lagway should return as Baylor's starter after missing two games with an ankle injury.
- Only one of the 10 samples is a 2026 Baylor start; nine came at Florida.
- Game total points over 54−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Baylor and Colorado average 0.05 and 0.02 offensive EPA/play over 3 current-season games, with positive PROE of 0.10 and 0.08.
- Pace averages 22.48 and 21.40 seconds per play, while recent five-game form produced 32.0 Baylor points and 24.3 Colorado points per game.
- Baylor's current defense allows only -0.26 EPA/play, though the three-game sample includes Prairie View A&M; a repeat of that suppression kills the over.
- Game total under 54.5 (no push; 54 wins)+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 54.5 has no push, 54 total points cashes the under, while 55+ loses.
- under 54.5 is 50.25c versus whole-number under 54 at 50.00c, only a 0.25-point premium.
- This is contract selection, not a projection that the game goes under; the side can still lose at 55 or more.
Show all 14 picks
- Baylor −10 (pushes at exactly 10)0%Push
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Baylor -10 pushes if Baylor wins by exactly 10; Baylor -10.5 loses on that same margin.
- ProphetX charges 47.62¢ for Baylor -10 versus 45.45¢ for Baylor -10.5: only a 2.17-point premium for the push protection.
- Baylor can lose the contract by 11 or more; the push option helps only at exactly 10.
- Colorado-Baylor total points under 56+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing under 56, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; book levels were 3 versus 3.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3, so only two of three measures agree.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +8−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing Colorado +8, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; book levels were 3 versus 3.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3, so only two of three measures agree.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread +10.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB histogram: exact 10-point margins occurred 455/10,845 (4.2%); margins 9, 11 occurred 816/10,845 (7.5%).
- ProphetX charges 2.31 probability points from Colorado +10 (-122) to +10.5 (-134), below the key-10 mass.
- Pinnacle's -9.5 reference corroborates a Baylor favorite, while +10.5 captures the key-number cushion.
- Most likely loss: Baylor's -0.26 defensive EPA and 90.5 PFF defense create a double-digit home win.
- Colorado Buffaloes @ Baylor Bears total points under 56+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 samples show 21.40 seconds/play for Colorado and 22.48 for Baylor, offering no clear pace-up setup.
- Colorado averages .452 offensive success, .120 explosive rate and 1.90 points/drive across three 2026 games.
- Baylor averages .471 success and .135 explosiveness, but Colorado's defense is near neutral at -0.01 EPA/play allowed; Baylor's defense is much stronger at -0.28.
- Most likely loss: DJ Lagway's expected return produces Baylor explosive plays against Colorado's secondary and pushes the game past 56.
- Colorado +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Buying accelerated into kickoff: the two qualifying positions were opened or added between 7:54 and 8:31 AM PDT.
- Baylor’s preview edge is substantial: 91.1 team grade versus 84.3 and -0.08 defensive EPA allowed per play versus Colorado’s +0.04.
- Baylor Bears spread −8+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- three-game EPA lens: Baylor defense -0.26 vs Colorado -0.01; Baylor offense +0.05 vs +0.02.
- Baylor also leads the three-game sample in success rate (47.5% to 44.8%) and explosiveness (13.5% to 12.0%).
- captured Pinnacle main number is Baylor -9.5, while ProphetX offers the more favorable -8.
- DJ Lagway is only listed probable, not confirmed; the current cfb_injury_x_signal read has no fresh game-mapped QB update.
- Colorado Buffaloes to win−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado leads 3-0 late in the first quarter after Baylor failed to convert its opening red-zone opportunity.
- Most likely loss: Baylor's stronger pregame baseline and home field erase Colorado's early lead.
Questions
Who won Colorado vs. Baylor?
Baylor won 23-13 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.