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FinalNeyland Stadium
Texas3-0
20–17Final
Tennessee3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
TEX733720
TENN307717

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tennessee Volunteers spread +5.5 51¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-14 on this game · −19% return

  1. Texas Longhorns to winFavorite5 models agree
    +51%Won

    Taken at −196 on FanDuel

    5 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Texas recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.11 per play; Tennessee's is +0.12 across the five-game window.
    • Texas holds a 93.0 overall PFF grade and 81.0 passing grade versus Tennessee's 92.1 and 67.6.
    • Tennessee's offense has been stronger recently: +0.36 EPA/play and 0.55 success rate versus Texas's +0.22 and 0.53.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Model projects Texas by 7.2 points; Texas is 9-1 straight-up in its last 10.
    • Texas is 5-0 in its last five and 3-0 in 2026; Tennessee is 6-4 in its last 10.
    • Tennessee has home-field advantage and a 3.16 recent points-per-drive average.
    Key Number CFB
    • Texas has a 3-0 record and leads Tennessee 93.0-92.1 in latest PFF overall grade.
    • Texas defense grades 88.5 overall versus Tennessee's 85.6; the Longhorns also hold the stronger recent defensive profile.
    • Tennessee is at Neyland Stadium and its 2026 offense has posted 0.32 EPA per play over the recent window.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Texas has three current-season games of data; its defense is -0.15 EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.05.
    • Tennessee's offense is stronger through three games: +0.42 EPA/play versus Texas at +0.22.
  2. Texas Longhorns spread −5.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    4 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Load-bearing factor: Texas current defensive EPA allowed averages -0.15/play versus Tennessee -0.05/play; efficiency edge supports Texas clearing the key 5.5 rung.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's explosive offense keeps the game within one score despite Texas's defensive edge.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model margin mean +6.8 with SD 17 gives Texas cover probability 52.8% at -5.5.
    • Texas and Tennessee both have three games; two Tennessee and two Texas blowouts create garbage-time contamination.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; Texas has allowed 36 points across three 2026 games, while Tennessee's 143 points came against a materially softer schedule.
    • Texas posted defensive EPA/play allowed of -0.44 versus UTSA and held Ohio State to 23 points.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's explosive home rushing attack controls tempo and keeps the game within five.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Texas has allowed -0.15 defensive EPA/play through three games versus Tennessee's -0.05, supporting the margin side.
    • sportsbook captures also show Texas -5.5, but around -113 to -115; ProphetX leaves the same main number at plus money.
    • Tennessee's offense leads Texas by 0.19 EPA/play and 5.1 explosive-rate points through three games.
  3. Tennessee Volunteers spread +5.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • Texas covers by six or more and the contract loses; an early Texas lead creates variance.
      Kickoff Ledger
      • Texas has averaged +0.22 offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.05 defensive EPA/play allowed; the matchup is less lopsided than 5.5 points.
      • Tennessee leads the early-season efficiency sample at +0.42 offensive EPA/play, 57.6% success and 16.5% explosive rate.
      • Three-game samples are schedule-sensitive: Texas faced Ohio State, while Tennessee's other two opponents were Furman and Kennesaw State.
    • Over 55 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Blended scoring matchup projects Texas 26.8 and Tennessee 29.9 points.
      • Tennessee explosive rate is 16.5%; confirmed starters Arch Manning and Faizon Brandon led latest pass attempts.
      • Most likely loss: Texas defense forces red-zone field goals and keeps the game below 55.
    • Texas to winFavorite
      +25%Won

      Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US

      Skip Bayless TrackerDown 34% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Feed item from @RealSkipBayless: “Texas is much more talented than Tenn. This shouldn't be this close.”
      • Yahoo Sports, published September 26: Skip said Texas “should beat Tennessee” despite concerns about Arch Manning.
      • Texas is already the strongly favored side; Polymarket US quotes Texas YES at 80¢ with a live market.
      • Skip explicitly says Manning's poise and accuracy can be “wildly erratic,” creating comeback risk.
    • Tennessee Volunteers 1st-half winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

      Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Three-way unit check: Kalshi fields are fractions; 0.35 Tennessee / 0.58 Texas / 0.09 tie sum to 1.02.
      • Only three 2026 games inform the efficiency sample; first-half margin variance is materially wider than the point estimate.
    Show all 19 picks
    1. Texas Longhorns spread −5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 PFF card favors Texas overall 93.0-92.1, defense 88.5-85.6, and offense 80.6-79.0.
      • Texas current three-game defense averaged -0.15 EPA/play allowed versus Tennessee's -0.05; the defensive mismatch supports Texas margin.
      • Arch Manning led Texas in pass attempts in all three 2026 games (33, 37, 27); Faizon Brandon did likewise for Tennessee (26, 21, 17).
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's current offense averages +0.42 EPA/play and 0.17 explosive rate, enough to exploit home-field variance.
    2. Tennessee Volunteers wins 1st Half
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tennessee averaged +0.42 offensive EPA/play over three games; Texas averaged +0.22.
      • Matchup EPA differential favors Tennessee by roughly 0.29 EPA/play before opponent adjustment.
      • Tennessee averaged 57.6% success, 16.5% explosive rate and 3.95 points/drive; Texas: 56.0%, 11.4%, 3.42.
      • Only three 2026 games inform the recent-form sample; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
    3. 1Q total over 13.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: approximately 17, 19 first-quarter points from recent pace and points-per-drive inputs.
      • Texas averaged 3.42 points per drive, 56.0% success, and 26.9 seconds per play over its last three.
      • Tennessee averaged 3.95 points per drive, 57.6% success, and 27.3 seconds per play over its last three.
      • A first quarter has a tiny possession sample; one turnover, explosive play, or missed kick can swing the result.
    4. Game 1H total over 27.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas 26.88 and Tennessee 27.29 sec/play; 22.67 average game drives imply 11.33 first-half drives.
      • Matchup PPD blends to 2.31 for Texas and 2.52 for Tennessee, or 4.83 combined points per drive.
      • Only three games per team; early schedules include FCS/G5 opponents and may inflate PPD and explosiveness.
    5. Game total under 55 (push at exactly 55)
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 55 wins at 54 or fewer, pushes at exactly 55, and loses at 56 or more.
      • Any final total of 56 or more loses this exact contract; no projection edge is claimed.
    6. Texas −7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas -7 pushes if Texas wins by exactly 7; Texas -7.5 would lose on that same margin.
      • ProphetX Texas -7 is 42.02¢ (+138) versus Texas -7.5 at 39.06¢ (+156), only a 2.96¢ premium for the push protection.
      • The quoted offer is finite and can move or be consumed before grading; no independent sharp reference was used.
    7. Tennessee Volunteers to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels: Tennessee 3, Texas 3; neutral third measure, but thin-at-quote plus deep-total gives two-measure support.
      • Venue self-reference only: ProphetX depth is not an independent check or a proven statistical edge.
    8. Tennessee +4.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Directional coherence check: backing Tennessee +4.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level corroboration is neutral at 3-3, so this is only the two-measure version of the signal.
    9. Game total points over 54.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current-season offense EPA/play is +0.42 for Tennessee and +0.22 for Texas through three regular-season games.
      • Recent 2026 game totals: Tennessee 51, 69, 65; Texas 36, 47, 66, four of six clear 54.5.
      • Texas and Tennessee defenses have negative EPA allowed/play (-0.15 and -0.05), which can suppress the scoring projection.
    10. Game total points under 55
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 sample, 3 games each: Texas averages 26.88 seconds per play, +0.11 PROE, 11.4% explosive rate and 56.0% success.
      • Tennessee averages 27.29 seconds per play, -0.00 PROE, 16.5% explosive rate and 57.6% success; its pace/PROE profile is not an automatic shootout signal.
      • Defensive EPA allowed is negative for both teams in the three-game sample: Texas -0.15, Tennessee -0.05; PFF 2026 defense grades are 88.5 and 85.6.
      • Texas's +0.11 PROE and Tennessee's 16.5% explosive rate can create a few quick touchdowns and beat a low alternate.
    11. Tennessee Volunteers 1H spread over 2.5Favorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; 2,327 regular-season FBS games (2024, 26) produce full-game margin SD 15.85, with empirical mass peaks at 3, 7, and 10.
      • Pinnacle full-game Texas -5.5; half-scaling to +2.75 agrees with the derived first-half mean.
      • Only three 2026 games per team; current pace and points-per-drive samples face very different opponents.
    12. Game total points over 56
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • captured sportsbook total was 54.5, below this ProphetX 56 rung.
      • 2026 sample (3 games, 242/211 plays): Texas +0.22 and Tennessee +0.42 offensive EPA/play.
      • Both offenses posted .560+ success rates and explosive rates of .114 Texas / .165 Tennessee.
      • Texas allowed -0.15 defensive EPA/play in its three-game sample, the clearest path to a low total.
    13. Game total under 57
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • A conservative blend of each team's three-game scoring and points-allowed averages centers near 55.7 points.
      • Texas has allowed 6, 23, and 7 points; its defense is -0.15 EPA/play through three games.
      • Tennessee's defense is also negative in EPA/play (-0.05), limiting the shootout path despite strong offenses.
      • Most likely loss: explosive touchdowns or short fields create a late shootout above 57.

    Questions

    Who won Texas vs. Tennessee?

    Texas won 20-17 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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