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FinalGalaxy Stadium
Sam Houston1-2
14–49Final
Texas Tech3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
SHSU0140014
TTU714141449

Top model pick, graded

Won

Texas Tech −34.5 52¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-11 on this game · −37% return

  1. Sam Houston Bearkats spread +34.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • CFB predictor at 6:04 AM projects Texas Tech by 28.62, 5.88 points inside +34.5; Pinnacle reference is -34.5.
    • Texas Tech's three-game offense is stronger, but its -0.03 defensive EPA/play average is materially less restrictive than Sam Houston's -0.12.
    • Three-game sample is thin, and the predictor is a win/margin projection rather than a direct cover simulation.
    Long Way Home
    • Texas Tech's first three margins were +23, +11, and +2; it has not cleared this number in the live 2026 sample.
    • Sam Houston's two losses were by 3 and 6 points; the +34.5 cushion is materially wider than either result.
    • The talent and venue gap can produce Texas Tech short-field scores and a late 35-point win.
  2. Texas Tech −34.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Under 55 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: roughly 10.5 possessions each and blended PPD of 2.86 Texas Tech, 2.13 Sam Houston produce a 54.2-point mean; under 55 fair probability 52.0%.
    • Sam Houston's current 28.53-second pace and 71.0 plays per game limit the number of chances.
    • Pinnacle's current main total is 57 (-104 over / -112 under); devigged under probability is 50.9% at the nearest quoted sharp rung.
    • Sam Houston's 59-0 Nicholls result inflates current PPD; the garbage-time discount may be too aggressive.
  4. Texas Tech wins 1H by over 20.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle TTU -34.5 full-game spread; scaled half mean 17.25, pace/PPD adjustment to 18.0.
    • 2,327 completed CFB games (2024-26) give signed-margin SD 22.95; sqrt(2) scaling gives first-half SD 16.23.
    • The first-half mean is scaled from a full-game sharp line, not an independent first-half sharp quote.
  5. Sam Houston Bearkats +33.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects Texas Tech by 28.6 points, 4.9 points below the +33.5 cover threshold.
    • QB/injury family favors the dog: Landyn Locke has 973 yards, 9 TD and 1 INT; Texas Tech has two CBs officially out.
    • Market family also leans against the favorite: Sam Houston has 43% of the handle despite only 38% of tickets.
    • Both teams have only three 2026 games, so early-season opponent-adjusted inputs are thin.
  6. Sam Houston Bearkats to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 2¢ on Kalshi

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
Show all 17 picks
  1. Texas Tech Red Raiders spread −33.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 sample: Texas Tech offense averages +0.23 EPA/play versus Sam Houston defense at -0.12 EPA/play allowed; the matchup gap is +0.35.
    • Pinnacle's captured main spread is Texas Tech -34.5 (-110); ProphetX gives one point of cushion at -33.5.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Will Hammond led Texas Tech's latest passing attempts (27), while Landyn Locke led Sam Houston's (28); official previews support both quarterbacks.
    • Sam Houston's offense has the higher current success rate (50.6% versus Texas Tech's 46.9%) and Locke has topped 300 passing yards in all three 2026 games.
  2. Game 1H total over 30.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1-3 averaged 25.0 combined drives; 12.5 projected first-half drives.
    • Blended pace is 27.17 seconds/play; 12.5 × 5.75 plays/drive ≈ 71.9 first-half snaps.
    • Weather gust and precipitation were null at 6:20 PDT; a late weather change could reduce possessions.
  3. Game total under 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 56 wins at 0, 55, pushes at exactly 56, and loses at 57+; the adjacent under 56.5 cashes at 56.
    • ProphetX quotes under 56 at +101 versus under 56.5 at -104; the whole rung pays 5.0% more on wins.
  4. Texas Tech −35
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  5. Sam Houston Bearkats spread +35
    0%Push

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The +34.5/+35 rung crosses empirical CFB margin 35: 209 of 10,845 games landed there versus 155 at 34.
    • Texas Tech's 2026 wins are by 23, 11 and 2 points; its current average winning margin is 12.
    • Box data's attempt leaders are Landyn Locke and Will Hammond; a Fox Sports game listing this wake names both as starters.
    • Most likely loss: Texas Tech converts the talent gap into a 36-point-or-more blowout; +35 loses at 36.
  6. Game total points under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current sample is 3 games: Texas Tech offense is +0.24 EPA/play, Sam Houston defense allows -0.12 EPA/play; the mismatch favors Tech scoring without requiring a fast game.
    • Current explosive rates are .1515 for Texas Tech and .1342 for Sam Houston; PROE is .0625 and .2031 respectively, supporting a controlled high-50s script more than a pure track meet.
    • Texas Tech's 25.81-second offensive pace is fast, and both offenses have current explosive rates above .13; short fields or explosive plays can break the under.
  7. 1Q total under 13.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12.7 recent first-quarter points combined: Sam Houston 8.0, Texas Tech 4.7 across three games.
    • Sam Houston scored 7, 7 and 10 first-quarter points; Texas Tech scored 14, 0 and 0.
    • Average offensive plays were 71.0 and 72.7, with first-quarter scripts producing a 12.7-point empirical baseline.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent-quality adjustment is noisy.
  8. Game total points under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current three-game total averages are 48.0 for Sam Houston and 52.0 for Texas Tech, below the 56.5, 57 market reference.
    • Texas Tech's 25.81-second pace is slow; Sam Houston's defense allows -0.12 EPA/play across three games.
    • QB gate cleared: official previews name Landyn Locke and Will Hammond, who lead their teams' latest passing-attempt rows.
    • Sharp books center 56.5, 57; this projection must overcome a meaningful market disagreement.
  9. Game total under 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas Tech scored 33, 35, 28; Sam Houston scored 21, 17, 59, with the 59 inflated by Nicholls.
    • Combined baseline is approximately 50, 52 points after discounting Sam Houston’s outlier; under 54 gives two points of cushion.
    • Texas Tech allowed 10, 24, 26 points in its first three games; Sam Houston’s first two games stayed at 21 and 17.
    • Sam Houston’s 59-point Nicholls performance shows its offense can produce quickly against a favorable matchup.
  10. Sam Houston–Texas Tech game total under 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent defensive EPA allowed is negative for both: Sam Houston -0.12 and Texas Tech -0.03 per play across three games, supporting a lower scoring rate than raw averages imply.
    • 2026 raw scoring averages total 64.3 points, but Sam Houston’s 59-point Nicholls game is the outlier; its two FBS games produced 38 and 45 combined points.
    • Only three current-season games per team; the Nicholls outlier and schedule-quality effects make the projection fragile.
  11. Game total under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Through three games, Texas Tech allowed -0.01 defensive EPA/play and Sam Houston allowed -0.12; both defenses support resistance to a 57-point game.
    • Texas Tech's current-season pace averages 25.81 seconds/play; Sam Houston averages 28.53, with combined offensive success rates below 51%.
    • Pinnacle shows 57 with the under at -112; ProphetX offers the under at the slightly better -109.
    • Three-game samples are thin, and Sam Houston's offense posted 0.44 EPA/play in its latest game.

Questions

Who won Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?

Texas Tech won 49-14 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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