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FinalL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest2-1
30–27Final
Louisville2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
WAKE3213330
LOU7146027

Top model pick, graded

Won

Lincoln Kienholz first touchdown scorer +550

Why CFB Top-25 First-TD Edge likes it: AP Top 25 Week 4 lists Louisville No. 16; latest live poll record is 2-1.

CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 2% this season · 17 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-14 on this game · −1% return

  1. Lincoln Kienholz first touchdown scorerLong shot
    +550%Won

    Taken at +550 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AP Top 25 Week 4 lists Louisville No. 16; latest live poll record is 2-1.
    • Louisville averages 0.40 offensive EPA/play and 3.47 points/drive across three 2026 games.
    • Wake Forest has allowed 0.28 defensive EPA/play; Louisville's defense has allowed only 0.05 EPA/play this season.
    • Louisville has a crowded scoring tree: Keyjuan Brown, Isaac Brown, Marquise Davis and receivers remain live.
  2. Louisville Cardinals spread −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency gap: Louisville offense +0.40 EPA/play vs Wake +0.21; defense allowed +0.05 vs +0.17.
    • Louisville leads current success rate 56.9%-49.8%, explosive rate 19.6%-14.6%, and points per drive 3.47-3.13.
    • Only three current-season advanced rows per team; early-season margin estimates are noisy.
  3. Carlos Hernandez over 6.5 receptions
    +108%Won

    Taken at +108 on DraftKings

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Targets were 13/35, 8/27 and 19/46: 37.0% aggregate share, 13.4% share CV across three games.
    • Receiving yards per target fell 12.7 to 11.0 to 3.6, a 71.4% first-to-last efficiency collapse while opportunity recovered.
    • Receptions rose 5 to 6 to 10; Wake ran 62-71 plays, and its 79.4% pass rate last week supports another large target pie.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville leads early, shortens Wake's drives and Carlos falls to 12 or fewer targets, finishing with six receptions.
  4. Louisville Cardinals spread −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current sample (3 games): Louisville +0.39 EPA/play and 56.4% success versus Wake Forest +0.21 and 49.8%.
    • Matchup read: Louisville offense (+0.39 EPA/play) faces Wake's +0.17 defensive EPA allowed; Wake's +0.21 faces Louisville's +0.05 allowed.
    • Louisville owns the explosive-rate edge, 19.6% to 14.6%; PFF 2026 overall grades are 91.7 to 84.4, with a 78.4-to-66.1 pass-rush gap.
    • Louisville allowed +0.20 defensive EPA/play against Ole Miss, so the defense is not uniformly dominant.
  5. Louisville Cardinals wins 1st HalfFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisville averaged 0.40 offensive EPA/play across three 2026 games versus Wake Forest's 0.17 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Louisville's recent success rate was 56.9%, ahead of Wake Forest's 49.8%; explosive rate was 19.6% versus 14.6%.
    • QB gate is cleared: current pregame reporting names Gio Lopez for Wake Forest and Lincoln Kienholz for Louisville.
    • Only three 2026 games per team provide thin coverage, and opponent quality is not fully normalized.
  6. Game 1Q total over 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3-game PPD averages: Louisville 3.47, Wake Forest 3.13; bottom-up Q1 projection lands near 18 points.
    • Recent explosive rates averaged 19.6% for Louisville and 14.6% for Wake Forest, supporting early scoring upside.
    • Gio Lopez is probable, not officially confirmed; a late scratch invalidates the opening-script projection.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game total under 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX self-reference: under 55.5 is 45.45c versus under 55 at 44.84c, only a 0.61c upgrade cost.
    • ProphetX ladder prices can reflect order flow and may reprice the apparent 0.61c gap.
  2. Louisville −12
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX self-reference: -12 is 51.46¢ (-106) versus -12.5 at 50.74¢ (-103), only a 0.72-point price gap.
    • Louisville wins by 13 or more for a win; by 11 or fewer for a loss; no push outside exactly 12.
  3. Louisville Cardinals spread −13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 versus 3; the qualifying core is Louisville thin-at-quote and deep-behind-it on two measures.
    • Backing Louisville -13, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
  4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 57.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing over 57.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
  5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread +12
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB margin histogram: exact 10-point margins occurred 455 times; 7-point margins 850; 3-point margins 978.
    • The -10/-12 ladder gap crosses the key 10, so +12 captures non-flat key-number mass better than a smooth curve assumes.
    • Louisville is stronger, but Wake averages +0.21 offensive EPA/play and 2.85 points/drive across the recent window.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville wins by 13 or more, clearing the key-number cushion.
  6. Louisville Cardinals to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  7. Louisville Cardinals 1H spread NO over 6.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game Louisville -13.5 scales to a 6.75-point first-half mean.
    • 2,327 completed 2024, 26 games produce signed home-margin SD 22.95; square-root half scaling gives 16.23, not 11.48.
    • College key mass is empirical: absolute margins 3 (193), 7 (168), and 10 (98); 6.5 sits immediately below the 7 mass.
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: derived NO fair probability is only about three points above the 45¢ entry.
  8. Game 1H total under 30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Clean pace blend is 26.92 seconds/play: Louisville 28.14 and 26.53, Wake Forest 25.49/25.38/28.62; 10% stoppage haircut yields 60.1 first-half plays.
    • Model fair NO is approximately 56¢ versus the 53¢ live entry; the Kalshi over-side has drifted from 49.5¢ to 50.5¢ since 8:01 AM, supporting the under direction.
    • Only a small modeled gap: 28.4 is roughly 2 points below the 30.5 threshold; first-half scoring variance can erase a 3¢ edge.
  9. Game total over 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 through three games: Louisville is +0.39 EPA/play offensively and Wake Forest +0.21; explosive rates are 19.6% and 14.6%.
    • Louisville's 19.16 seconds/play pace and weak current defensive EPA profile support a higher-scoring script despite Wake's slower 26.50 pace.
    • QB gate cleared: official Sep. 25 game preview expects Lincoln Kienholz and Gio Lopez; each led his team's latest pass-attempt totals.
    • Most likely loss: Wake's slow pace and Louisville's defense turn this into a one-sided, lower-possession game.
  10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread +11.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • a simple 2026 points-for/against blend projects Louisville by about 7, not 11.5.
    • Louisville's defense has allowed 31, 13, and 41 points; Wake's offense has scored 38, 38, and 20.
    • Wake's prior margins are +22, +2, and -13, giving the underdog multiple paths to stay within two scores.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville's 0.40 offensive EPA/play sustains early-down efficiency and produces a 12+ point win.
  11. Wake Forest @ Louisville total points over 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 three-game samples show Louisville at 0.20 explosive rate and .564 success rate; Wake at .146 and .498.
    • Both defenses allow positive EPA/play: Wake +0.17 and Louisville +0.05; offenses average 3.13 and 3.47 points per drive.
    • Six combined 2026 team games averaged 65.0 total points, 7.5 above this 57.5 rung.
    • Louisville's PFF defense grade is 80.0, while Wake's is 76.3; those stronger-than-average units can erase explosive gains.
  12. Game total over 58
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams have allowed 28.3 points per game; the current 58-point rung sits below the raw combined scoring/allowance baseline.
    • Pinnacle is 57.5, so the exchange is offering a slightly higher number at plus money; reference only, not the edge itself.
    • Personnel check, Louisville has used Lincoln Kienholz as its 2026 starter; Wake coach Jake Dickert said Thursday that probable Gio Lopez would be ready.
    • Three-game samples are thin, and Louisville's 59 against Villanova inflates the scoring baseline.
  13. Game total under 53.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live score is 7-3 after one quarter; 10 points on 30 combined offensive plays projects to roughly 40 points at the current rate.
    • Current offensive EPA is -0.00 for Louisville and -0.20 for Wake Forest, with points per drive of 1.50 and 2.33.
    • The live 53.5 total requires 43.5 more points in three quarters; the observed efficiency profile supports a lower-scoring game.
    • A one-quarter sample is thin; both offenses can make effective halftime adjustments.
  14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons to winLong shot
    +426%Won

    Taken at 19¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX offers +430 while the live sharp references show Wake Forest +397 (Pinnacle) and +393 (BetOnline.ag); the exchange is materially longer.
    • Current model gap is 1.04 percentage points, about 5.5% expected return at the 5.30 decimal payout.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville's current efficiency edge holds; through three games its offense averages +0.39 EPA/play versus Wake's +0.21.

Questions

Who won Wake Forest vs. Louisville?

Wake Forest won 30-27 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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