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FinalZoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Ball State1-2
13–26Final
Kent State1-2
Score by period
Team1234T
BALL007613
KENT7100926

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kent State Golden Flashes to win 57¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Current Polymarket US price is 57c, with global price 56.5c; the signal remains actionable before kickoff.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-17 on this game · −43% return

  1. Ball State Cardinals to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • game 2026 sample: Ball State offense averages -0.03 EPA/play versus Kent State's +0.29 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Ball State leads current-sample success rate .418 to .379 and explosive rate .109 to .076; its 2026 PFF overall grade is 64.0 versus Kent State's 44.7.
    • Kent State has home field and a slightly better current defensive EPA average; the market still makes it the favorite.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels were Ball State 3 versus Kent State 3; neutral, but the thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total pairing clears the two-measure test.
    • Directional check: backing Ball State, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire signal; there is no independent sharp reference or proven projection edge.
    D1 Winner
    • Ball State's 2026 three-game offense: -0.03 EPA/play and .422 success rate versus Kent State's -0.17 and .379.
    • Keldric Luster has 438 passing yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs; Kent's Dru DeShields has 351 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs.
    • No official game-day starter listing or injury report is posted; a late quarterback change would invalidate the QB-family read.
  2. Ball State Cardinals spread +2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book_levels are Ball State 3 vs Kent State 3; the two core measures agree, while the third is neutral.
    • Directional check: backing Ball State +2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Raw figures are venue self-reference only; no independent reference used.
    • Equal book_levels provide no corroboration beyond the two core measures.
    Key Number CFB
    • Ball State's 2026 PFF card: 64.0 overall, 61.7 offense and 60.9 defense versus Kent State's 44.7, 50.9 and 49.8.
    • Ball State's offense is less negative by EPA/play (-0.03 vs -0.17) and has stronger PROE (+12.4% vs +1.3%).
    • Both defenses have allowed roughly +0.33 EPA/play; explosive-game variance can turn a close margin into a comfortable Kent win.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • through three 2026 games, Ball State leads Kent State by 0.13 offensive EPA/play (-0.03 vs -0.17).
    • Ball State also leads success rate 41.8% to 37.9% and explosive rate 10.9% to 7.6%; defensive EPA allowed is essentially even (0.33 vs 0.33).
    • Ball State's defense has allowed +0.33 EPA/play across three games; Kent's home field and favorite status can still decide a close game.
  3. Kent State Golden Flashes to win
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current Polymarket US price is 57c, with global price 56.5c; the signal remains actionable before kickoff.
    • SDTrading also holds Ball State +3.5, so part of its position is a hedge rather than pure moneyline conviction.
  4. Under 50.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: blended opponent-adjusted total mean 49.0, SD 17.0; under 50.5 fair probability 53.5%.
    • Current average drives are 12.3 Ball State plus 11.7 Kent State; Kent's 0.78 points per drive and 0.08 explosive rate support the under.
    • Both current defenses allow roughly +0.33 EPA/play; explosive plays or short fields can break the under.
  5. Kent State Golden Flashes spread 3.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Official 9/25 preview names Dru DeShields and Keldric Luster as expected starters; last pass-attempt leaders corroborate both.
    • Blended efficiency inputs center Kent's home margin near +3.0; home field supports the distribution edge toward this rung.
    • Pinnacle main line is Kent -3 at -106/-106, 50.0% devig; exact -3.5 absent, so this is a derived reference.
    • Derived rung is not Pinnacle-quoted; model is 1.2 points from Pinnacle's 50.0% -3 reference and 2.8 points from Kalshi price.
  6. Ball State spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model Ball State cover 53.0% versus Pinnacle's devigged 50.0% at the exact -3 rung: +3.0 percentage points.
    • Three-game EPA board: Ball State offense -0.03/play versus Kent State -0.17; success rate 41.8% versus 37.9%.
    • Ball State leads explosive rate 10.9% to 7.6% and points per drive 1.55 to 0.78; current-season sample is three games each.
    • Both defenses allow roughly +0.33 EPA/play, so Kent's home field and one or two explosive drives can turn a close game into a four-point loss.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Ball State Cardinals spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current efficiency supports the dog: Ball State leads Kent in offense EPA (-0.03 vs -0.18), success (41.8% vs 37.4%), explosiveness (10.9% vs 7.6%), and PPD (1.55 vs 0.78); key-number 3 adds push mass.
    • Kent State owns home field and a stronger recent defensive profile could turn a close game into a margin beyond 3.
  2. TJ Horton anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −135 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 65.0% versus -135 implied 57.4%, a 7.6-point value margin.
    • Horton scored a rushing touchdown in 2 of Ball State's 3 games this season (66.7%).
    • Kent State ranks 56th of 229 defenses by favorable EPA profile; +0.32 defensive EPA allowed per play.
    • The recent sample is only three games, so the 66.7% hit rate is highly volatile.
  3. Ball State Cardinals spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 three-game sample: Ball State off EPA/play -0.03 vs Kent State -0.17; both defenses allow roughly +0.33 EPA/play.
    • Ball State leads current-sample success rate 41.8%, 37.9% and explosive rate 10.9%, 7.6%, a meaningful offensive mismatch.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Keldric Luster and Dru DeShields led their latest pass-attempt rows, with official team sources identifying their quarterback roles.
    • Most likely loss: Kent State converts Ball State's +0.33 defensive EPA allowed into sustained home drives and wins by 2 or more.
  4. 1H total under 27.5 points
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects roughly 22 first-half points from recent drive efficiency and sane pace observations.
    • Recent points per drive: Ball State 1.55, Kent State 0.78 across three 2026 games each.
    • Combined recent success rates are modest: Ball State 41.7%, Kent State 37.9%; explosive rates average 10.9% and 7.6%.
    • Only three games per team; Ohio State, South Carolina, and Liberty create opponent-quality noise.
  5. Ball State Cardinals wins 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ball State’s last-3 offensive EPA/play averages -0.03 versus Kent State’s -0.18.
    • Against recent opponent defenses, the matchup-adjusted EPA signal favors Ball State by roughly 0.15 EPA/play.
    • Ball State’s last-3 success rate is 41.8%, ahead of Kent State’s 37.4%; the opening-script side is better than the market’s 39¢.
    • Kent State has home field and the market makes it the 1H favorite; a modest EPA edge may not overcome venue or field position.
  6. Kent State Golden Flashes −3
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kent State -3 refunds if Kent State wins by exactly 3; it wins by 4+ and loses by 2 or fewer.
    • ProphetX prices Kent -3 at +103 versus adjacent Kent -3.5 at +118; the whole-number push option is not fully discounted.
    • The adjacent +118 quote may embed different market-maker demand, so the price transfer is not exact.
  7. Game total over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book_levels are Over 3 vs Under 3; the two core measures agree, while the third is neutral.
    • Directional check: backing Over 50.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Raw figures are venue self-reference only; no independent reference used.
    • Equal book_levels provide no corroboration beyond the two core measures.
  8. Game total points over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams are 3-for-3 over 50.5 in 2026: Ball State totals 59, 58, 66; Kent State totals 57, 51, 62.
    • Defenses allow +0.33 EPA/play (Ball State) and +0.33 (Kent State); pace is 21.11 and 22.70 seconds per play.
    • Sharp reference sits at 50.5 to 51.5, while official/box checks identify Keldric Luster and Dru DeShields as the expected starters.
    • Both offenses are negative EPA/play: Ball State -0.03 and Kent State -0.17, so finishing drives is not guaranteed.
  9. Kent State Golden Flashes 1H spread NO over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Kent -3 scales to a first-half mean of approximately +1.5 Kent points.
    • At the exact 2.5 rung, Normal(+1.5, 10.80) gives Kent-over probability 46.3%, hence NO probability 53.7%.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent mix includes Ohio State, Liberty, South Carolina, and Wofford, so the mean is fragile.
  10. Game 1H total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game total 51.0; 3-game drive samples average 12.33 Ball State drives and 11.67 Kent State drives.
    • 30.50 and 31.13 valid seconds/play averages blend to 30.81; six first-half drives per team historically, haircut to 11.5 projected combined drives for stoppages.
    • The 28.4 projection is a scaled full-game reference, not an independent first-half sharp total; the raised bar keeps this at LEAN.
  11. Game total under 53
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four of the teams' six 2026 games finished with one side scoring 17 or fewer.
    • Latest points: Ball State 15 and Kent State 3; latest offensive EPA/play was -0.09 and -0.40.
    • The 53-point venue line provides 2.5 points of cushion above the captured 50.5 main market.
    • Ball State and Kent State have each shown a 36-plus-point offensive outing this season.
  12. Total points over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the full-game 50.5 rung sits below the same-board 23.5 + 27.5 team-total ladder sum of 51.
    • Both defenses allow roughly +0.33 EPA per play across the three current-season rows, supporting scoring efficiency once drives are sustained.
    • Keldric Luster led Ball State's last passing box with 21 attempts and Dru DeShields led Kent State with 15; ESPN's live preview names both, and Kent's depth chart was updated September 25.
    • Kent State has scored only 39 points through three games; its offense can strand an over even if Ball State contributes.
  13. Game total over 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • all six 2026 team games cleared 50; combined average total is 58.8.
    • Prior totals: Ball State 59, 58, 66; Kent State 57, 51, 62.
    • Personnel gate cleared: current pregame reports identify Keldric Luster and Dru DeShields; neither has a reported availability issue.
    • Likeliest loss path: both negative-EPA offenses stall and fail to create explosive plays.
  14. Kent State Golden Flashes −3.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kent’s 2025 points per drive was 1.60 versus Ball State’s 1.30, supporting the venue’s favorite-side positioning.
    • Single-leg ticket avoids any combination tax; flat stake is 1 unit.
    • Most likely loss: Kent wins by 1-3 points and cashes the moneyline but misses -3.5.

Questions

Who won Ball State vs. Kent State?

Kent State won 26-13 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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