FinalAlamodome
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 14 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 45 |
| UTSA | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 59 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMel Brown anytime touchdown +135
Why Picks with pink pro reader likes it: Model probability 48% versus 42.6% implied by +135: 5.4 percentage points of value.
Picks with pink pro readerDown 3% this season · 552 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −61% return
- Colorado State Rams spread +13.5−100%Lost
Taken at +102 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 EPA/play: Colorado State offense +0.22 vs UTSA +0.14; the matchup is not a 14-point offensive mismatch.
- PFF overall grades are close: Colorado State 72.1, UTSA 70.1; own margin projection is UTSA by about 6.
- Colorado State covered 4 of its last 5 tracked spreads and has a three-game current-season ATS streak.
- Colorado State's L10 ATS record is only 5-5, below the preferred 60% consistency gate.
- Game total under 55−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 55 pushes at exactly 55; adjacent under 55.5 wins at 55.
- ProphetX's inspected ladder showed under 55 at +120 (45.45c) versus under 55.5 at +111 (47.39c); the whole-to-half gap was about 1.69 percentage points before the live reprice.
- Under 55 loses at 56 or more; under 55.5 wins at exactly 55, so the whole rung is not simply a better line.
- UTSA −140%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UTSA -14 pushes on an exact 14-point win; UTSA -14.5 loses.
- ProphetX charges 50.98c (-104) for UTSA -14 versus 47.85c (+109) for -14.5: only a 3.13c premium for the push option.
- 14 still loses at margins below 14; the push option only protects the exact-14 result.
- UTSA Roadrunners 1H spread NO over 4.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 25 CFB sample: 2,764 games, empirical margin SD 14.59; the live 14-14 score leaves a Q2 conditional SD of about 7.30, not a naively halved first-half variance.
- season-to-date pace/PPD/EPA inputs plus the live tie project roughly a 3.5-point UTSA Q2 margin; P(UTSA clears 4.5) is about 45%, so NO is about 55%.
- live Pinnacle full-game line was UTSA -14.5; scaling that reference through the observed game state supports a modest, not runaway, Q2 edge.
- Only seven seconds remained in Q1 at the live snapshot and the score was 14-14; one explosive UTSA drive can erase the small model edge.
- Mel Brown anytime touchdown+135%Won
Taken at +135 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model probability 48% versus 42.6% implied by +135: 5.4 percentage points of value.
- Brown scored in 2 of Colorado State's 3 2026 games, including two rushing touchdowns against Southern Utah.
- He has handled 26 carries across those three games, an 8.7-carry average with a 171-yard outing.
- The 2-for-3 touchdown sample is only three games; regressing it materially lowers confidence.
- UTSA spread −17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two of three measures agree: UTSA is thin at quote and deep behind it; book levels are tied 3-3.
- ProphetX quotes UTSA -17.5 at +138, with the exact live selection linked below.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
Show all 8 picks
- Colorado State Rams to win−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The live cfb_game snapshot has Colorado State ahead 14-13 with 0:07 left in the first quarter.
- The live sportsbook board brackets the same side at +265 DraftKings and +440 FanDuel; ProphetX's current price is between those references, not a fabricated quote.
- ProphetX single-leg offer at confirmation: 22.99¢, with $12 offered at that contract.
- Most likely loss: UTSA's home-favorite baseline reasserts itself after halftime and Colorado State's early lead proves variance.
- Colorado State Rams game spread +140%Push
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 6:04 AM CFB predictor projects UTSA by only 7.56 points, leaving 6.44 points of cushion at +14.
- Most likely loss: UTSA wins by 15 or more; its home-field edge and stronger average defense can overwhelm the projection.
Questions
Who won Colorado State vs. UTSA?
UTSA won 59-45 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.