FinalRoss-Ade Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 7 | 28 | 0 | 14 | 49 |
| PUR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNotre Dame Fighting Irish spread −27.5 50¢
Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: In the current three-game 2026 sample, Notre Dame allows -0.10 EPA/play versus Purdue allowing +0.31, a 0.42-point defensive gap.
Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-11 on this game · −46% return
- Purdue Boilermakers spread +27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, Kickoff Ledger +1Why 3 models like it
Drift- Model: Purdue cover 53.0% after home adjustment and conservative shrinkage of three current-season games.
- Notre Dame defense is -0.10 EPA/play; Purdue defense is +0.31, the matchup's largest threat.
Kickoff Ledger- Model fair line: Notre Dame -24.5; FanDuel posts Purdue +27.5 at -104, a 3-point cushion.
- Purdue averages 0.27 offensive EPA/play and 39.3 points through three games; Ryan Browne has 1,024 passing yards.
- Notre Dame's defense allows -0.10 EPA/play and only 7.7 points per game; Purdue's offense faces its toughest test.
Long Way Home- Purdue’s latest offense produced +0.34 EPA/play and 3.17 points/drive.
- My projection is Notre Dame by roughly 23, 26, below the 27.5-point threshold.
- Notre Dame is 3, 0 and has outscored opponents 120, 23; a clean favorite performance beats the number.
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −27.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- In the current three-game 2026 sample, Notre Dame allows -0.10 EPA/play versus Purdue allowing +0.31, a 0.42-point defensive gap.
- Notre Dame averages 0.30 offensive EPA/play and 54.6% success; Purdue's offense averages 0.27 EPA/play and faces the stronger defense.
- Purdue's offense has a 16.3% explosive-play rate and 26.85-second pace, creating backdoor-cover risk against Notre Dame's 14.1% offensive explosive rate.
Key Number CFB- Notre Dame's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.30 and defense EPA/play is -0.10; Purdue is +0.28 and +0.32.
- Notre Dame is 3-0 with a 120-23 scoring margin; Purdue is 1-2 and has allowed 109 points.
- A 27.5-point favorite can win comfortably without covering; one late Purdue touchdown is enough to flip the ticket.
- Game total points under 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTempo Board, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Board- PROJECTION support: Notre Dame's 3-game 2026 offense averages 32.19 seconds per play, 0.14 explosive rate and 0.55 success rate.
- Purdue's 3-game offense is faster at 26.85 seconds per play, but Notre Dame's defense has allowed -0.10 EPA/play; PFF grades are 89.9 ND defense versus 62.8 Purdue defense.
- The most likely loss is Purdue converting its 26.85-second pace into explosive scoring against Notre Dame.
Key Number CFB- The 58.5/59 rung pair is not flat: empirical CFB totals show 59 points in 305 games versus 58 in 287, while 55 is an elevated 412-game cluster; the model prefers the lower side of this ladder.
- Notre Dame's 2026 defense allows -0.10 EPA/play; Purdue's defense allows +0.31, creating a more asymmetric scoring path than a pure shootout projection.
- Most likely loss: Purdue's strong 2026 offense combines with Notre Dame's high 3.90 recent points per drive to push the game to 59 or more.
- Aneyas Williams first touchdown scorer−100%Lost
Taken at +500 on DraftKings
CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Notre Dame averages +0.30 offensive EPA/play, 0.54 success rate and 3.53 points/drive; Purdue allows +0.31 defensive EPA/play.
- Purdue's 2026 team grades are 62.8 defense, 64.2 run defense and 48.2 coverage, creating a favorable Irish scoring matchup.
- Williams has 38 carries, 144 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs; he logged 11 red-zone rushing plays and 3 red-zone scoring plays.
- Nolan James Jr. has 39 carries, 4 offensive TDs and a co-starting role; the backfield is genuinely split.
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1H spread NO over 13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game spread is Notre Dame −27.5; half-scaling gives 13.75 before the variance adjustment.
- Notre Dame and Purdue season-to-date margins imply a 29.3-point full-game gap; projected first-half mean is approximately 14.5.
- Only three 2026 games per team; opponent adjustment and first-half scoring asymmetry are thin.
- Game total points under 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game 2026 sample: Notre Dame defense allowed -0.10 EPA/play; Purdue offense produced +0.28 EPA/play.
- Notre Dame’s 32.19-second offensive pace is slow, and its defense has allowed only 23 points through three games.
- PFF’s latest 2026 card has Notre Dame defense 89.9 versus Purdue defense 62.8, pointing to a one-sided rather than two-way scoring profile.
- Purdue’s offense has a 16.3% explosive-play rate and +0.28 EPA/play across three games, so one or two chunk plays can break the under.
Show all 11 picks
- 1Q total over 16.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3-game averages: Notre Dame 3.53 points per drive, .546 success rate, .304 offensive EPA/play.
- 3-game averages: Purdue 3.41 points per drive, .532 success rate, .274 offensive EPA/play.
- Both opening scripts are pass-aggressive: PROE +.088 Notre Dame and +.165 Purdue; projected 1Q total is 17.5 points.
- Only three 2026 games per team; first-quarter scoring variance is unusually large.
- Purdue +27.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +27.5 wins at a Purdue loss by exactly 27; Purdue +27 pushes at that margin.
- ProphetX prices +27.5 at 50.25¢ versus +27 at 50.00¢, only 0.25¢ separation.
- Generic 2014, 25 margin mass may not equal this matchup's margin distribution.
- Game total over 56.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- book_levels are over 3 versus under 3: neutral third measure; the quote-thin and total-depth measures agree.
- REFERENCE only; no independent reference confirms that the resting orders predict the game result.
- Game 1H total over 31.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 11.67 projected first-half drives from 21.0 season-to-date total drives; no precipitation cut.
- Only three games per team; first-half drive and scoring samples are thin.
- Game total under 56.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Notre Dame posted +0.30 average offensive EPA/play; Purdue allowed +0.32 defensive EPA/play through Week 3.
- Most likely loss: Notre Dame converts its efficiency edge into a 40-plus-point outing and Purdue contributes enough to clear 56.5.
Questions
Who won Notre Dame vs. Purdue?
Notre Dame won 49-10 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.