FinalO'Shaughnessy Stadium
San Diego1-2
17–50Final
St. Thomas3-1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| ST | 14 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 50 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSt. Thomas Tommies 1st-half winner 70¢
Why Front Runner likes it: Live PBP has St. Thomas ahead 14-0 after the first quarter; its offense has produced 1.07 EPA/play versus San Diego's -0.24.
Front RunnerDown 19% this season · 62 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-0 on this game · +112% return
- St. Thomas Tommies 1st-half winner+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live PBP has St. Thomas ahead 14-0 after the first quarter; its offense has produced 1.07 EPA/play versus San Diego's -0.24.
- Nick Peipert is the confirmed quarterback in the official preview and current passing data shows 3-for-3, 114 yards, 2 TD; Dom Nankil is confirmed for San Diego.
- Kalshi prices arrived as fractions: three-way mids 0.75 / 0.18 / 0.13 sum to 1.05; proper devig gives St. Thomas 71.1%, versus the 70c graded YES price.
- High win probability is not automatically profitable; this qualifies because the estimate exceeds the 70c graded price after the three-way sanity check.
- St. Thomas Tommies spread −4.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- St. Thomas averages 5.9 yards/play; San Diego allows 8.9, a 3.2-yard efficiency mismatch.
- San Diego averages 5.5 yards/play; St. Thomas allows 5.7, favoring the Tommies' matchup balance.
- Both teams had one week of rest; San Diego is finishing a three-game road swing spanning roughly 1,530 air miles.
- Biggest risk: San Diego averages 33:58 possession and 214.7 rushing yards, which can shorten the game and compress the margin.
- Game total over 56.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); projected total 65.3 versus 56.5, a 15.6% projection edge.
- San Diego has allowed 47.7 points per game; St. Thomas has allowed 27.8 through four games.
- Observed recent totals average 64.4 across the teams’ seven games, above the posted number.
- St. Thomas has gone under this number twice recently, including a 24-point combined total against Winona State.
- Game total over 57.5 points+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The simple scoring baseline is 65.3 points: St. Thomas scores 31.25 per game and San Diego allows 47.7.
- St. Thomas averages 5.9 yards/play against a San Diego defense allowing 8.9, supporting explosive scoring upside.
- San Diego's 214.7 rushing yards and 33:58 possession average can sustain drives despite a slower tempo.
- Biggest risk: showers and 10-15 mph wind could suppress passing efficiency and explosive plays at kickoff.
- Game total over 59.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 of 7 combined 2026 games cleared 59.5; San Diego's three totals were 66, 76, and 84.
- San Diego has gone over this number in 3 of 3 games, supplying the strongest recent signal.
- St. Thomas posted totals of 88 and 70 in two of its four games, showing upside against this threshold.
- Most likely loss: St. Thomas controls the game and both teams slow down after the result is decided.
- St. Thomas Tommies spread −16.5+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official results: San Diego lost 17-49 and 17-59 to ranked opponents before winning 38-35 at Cal Poly.
- St. Thomas is 3-1, including a 56-14 win and a 28-26 upset of Southern Utah; the matchup supports a wider-tail home win.
- Most likely ticket path: St. Thomas controls both lines and San Diego's recent blowout vulnerability returns.
- San Diego's 38-35 road win shows enough offense to backdoor-cover or keep this within two scores.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. St. Thomas?
St. Thomas won 50-17 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.