FinalStambaugh Stadium
South Dakota3-1
28–47Final
Youngstown State2-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| YOUN | 7 | 16 | 3 | 21 | 47 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 65 (push at exactly 65) 51¢
Why House Rules likes it: over 65 refunds on exactly 65; over 65.5 loses on exactly 65.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −61% return
- South Dakota +14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 88¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - South Dakota Coyotes YES to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 56% independent win estimate versus a 49.5¢ executable South Dakota contract: roughly 6.5 percentage points of edge.
- Efficiency family: South Dakota grades 93.6 overall to Youngstown State's 85.4, including a 19.1-point defensive-grade gap.
- Per-play sample favors South Dakota: +0.09 offensive EPA/play and +0.26 defensive EPA allowed versus YSU's -0.01 and +0.55.
- South Dakota's opponent-adjusted per-play sample is thin: only one 2026 game per team is charted in the warehouse.
- Game total over 65 (push at exactly 65)+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- over 65 refunds on exactly 65; over 65.5 loses on exactly 65.
- This is not a projection edge: totals of 66 or more lose, while exactly 65 only pushes.
- South Dakota +1.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Dakota +1.5 wins when Youngstown State wins by exactly 1; the adjacent South Dakota +1 pushes on that outcome.
- ProphetX priced South Dakota +1.5 at -104 (50.98c) versus South Dakota +1 at -107 (51.69c), a 0.71-cent inversion favoring the better-settling half-point rung.
- South Dakota +1.5 loses normally if Youngstown State wins by 2 or more; it has no push protection.
- South Dakota Coyotes spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Youngstown State's defense allowed +0.55 EPA/play; the matchup profile gives South Dakota the stronger side of the ball.
- Youngstown State offense was -0.01 EPA/play, versus +0.27 defensive EPA/play allowed by South Dakota.
- Most likely loss: Youngstown State wins by 2+; sharp books show the Penguins around -1.5 at roughly -115.
Questions
Who won South Dakota vs. Youngstown State?
Youngstown State won 47-28 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.