FinalFortera Stadium
UT Martin1-3
12–35Final
Austin Peay3-1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| AUST | 7 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 51.5 46¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +76% return
- Game total under 51.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- The market is modestly liquid rather than deep; the quoted 46¢ can move sharply near kickoff.
Long Way Home- Austin Peay managed 9 points and 178 total yards in its only current-season game; its offense posted 0.10 EPA/play and 1.0 points/drive.
- UT Martin scored 28 points across two current-season FBS games (14.0 per game), with only 0.07, 0.12 explosive rate in those games.
- Most likely loss: UT Martin's defense allowed 0.42 and 0.66 EPA/play in its two games, giving Austin Peay a path to an efficient scoring day.
- Game total under 52.5 points+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UT Martin: -0.09 offensive EPA/play, 42.4% success, and 9.5% explosive rate over two games.
- UT Martin scored 7 and 21 against its two FBS opponents; Austin Peay allowed 17.0 points per game across four.
- Both offenses average roughly 28.5 seconds per play, supporting fewer possessions than a fast-tempo matchup.
- Austin Peay averaged 36.3 points across four games, creating backdoor and short-field risk.
- Austin Peay Governors spread −15.5+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Austin Peay is 3-1 with a +77 point differential; UT Martin is 1-3 with a -46 differential.
- Austin Peay carries a 91.7 PFF team grade and 83.8 defense grade; UT Martin allowed +0.34 EPA/play in its five-game advanced sample.
- PWP Composite Grade: 72/100 (B), qualifying positive edge.
- The projection is a transparent score/EPA estimate; cfb_predictor returned no row for this FCS matchup.
- Game total over 52 (pushes at exactly 52; historical exact-total mass 2.497%)−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices over 52 at -121 (54.75¢) versus over 52.5 at -114 (53.27¢), only a 1.48-point gap.
- The whole-number total preserves a refund at 52, while the observed price difference is smaller than the historical exact-total mass.
- Austin Peay −17 spread (pushes at exactly 17; historical home-margin mass 2.150%)+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Austin Peay -17 at -107 (51.69¢) versus -17.5 at -101 (50.25¢), only a 1.44-point gap.
- The whole-number contract retains the exact-margin refund option, and the quoted gap is smaller than the measured push mass.
- A margin other than exactly 17 produces an ordinary spread win or loss; the refund option is narrow.
- Austin Peay Governors spread −19.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UT Martin averages -0.09 offensive EPA/play and 0.54 defensive EPA allowed across two 2026 games.
- Austin Peay’s three wins are by 18, 56, and 22; UT Martin has lost three games by 12, 45, and 24.
- Pinnacle’s main spread is Austin Peay -17.5 at +101, supporting the home-side direction.
- The projection rests on very small samples, and opponent quality differs sharply across those games.
Questions
Who won UT Martin vs. Austin Peay?
Austin Peay won 35-12 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.