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North Texas vs. TulsaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalH. A. Chapman Stadium
North Texas2-2
45–44Final
Tulsa3-1
Score by period
Team12345T
UNT37217745
TLSA017714644

Top model pick, graded

Won

North Texas Mean Green +1.5 −124

Why Rnj likes it: 3.0-point cross-book spread variance: North Texas ranges from +1.5 at FanDuel to -1.5 at DraftKings.

RnjDown 16% this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-8 on this game · +1% return

  1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +32 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • game 2026 sample: North Texas +0.27 EPA/play, 53.0% success, 16.7% explosive; Tulsa +0.06/43.8%/10.1%.
    • Tulsa's PFF defense grades 83.3 overall and 81.0 coverage, versus North Texas at 72.8 and 54.3.
    • Most likely loss: North Texas' +0.27 offensive EPA/play creates early separation despite the three points.
    Key Number CFB
    • Exact 3-point margins occurred 993 of 10,961 CFB games (9.1%); +3 captures the key-number push.
    • ProphetX +3 versus +3.5 moves only 4.10 percentage points, slightly below directional key-3 density.
    • Lean edge is small: the +3/+3.5 gap nearly matches the estimated directional share of exact-3 outcomes.
  2. North Texas Mean Green spread −32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • a whole-number -3 spread pushes on an exact three-point North Texas win; it is not a loss.
    • ProphetX quotes North Texas -3 at +104 versus -3.5 at +119, only a 3.36-point implied-price gap.
    • If North Texas wins by 1-2, loses, or wins by 4+, the three-point push protection does not matter and the directional result must carry.
    Long Way Home
    • Pinnacle lists the same North Texas -3 at -101; ProphetX offers +105, a six-price-point improvement.
    • North Texas -3 is directionally aligned with the sharp main number and the away favorite designation.
    • The moneyline/spread comparison is not a pure arbitrage; favorite win probability does not equal three-point cover probability.
  3. North Texas Mean Green +1.5High conviction
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.0-point cross-book spread variance: North Texas ranges from +1.5 at FanDuel to -1.5 at DraftKings.
    • Recent matchup EPA differential: +0.32 for North Texas versus -0.14 for Tulsa, a +0.45 gap.
    • North Texas recent offense averages +0.27 EPA/play; Tulsa defense allows -0.05 EPA/play.
    • The extreme book disagreement may reflect rapid market movement or feed/mapping noise rather than true value.
  4. North Texas–Tulsa game over 56.5 total
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Texas games went over in 20 of 29 qualifying 2024, 26 results (69.0%), clearing the 10-game trend gate.
    • Current scoring baseline is 65.2 combined points: North Texas 41.4, Tulsa 23.8.
    • Net EPA/play gap is 0.28: North Texas +0.27 versus Tulsa -0.01 over the recent window.
    • The total has oscillated between 56.5 and 57.5, then returned to 56.5; stable sharp movement is unconfirmed.
  5. North Texas at Tulsa under 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency blend makes the fair total roughly 54.5, a real 3-point gap below 57.5.
    • Tulsa has allowed -0.04 defensive EPA/play through four games; its offense is only +0.06 EPA/play with 1.93 points/drive.
    • Combined pace is modest: North Texas 28.08 seconds/play and Tulsa 26.87 seconds/play.
    • North Texas owns +0.27 offensive EPA/play and a 0.17 explosive-play rate; Tayven Jackson can create a fast start.
  6. North Texas Mean Green first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • derived first-half reference estimates North Texas at 62%, above the 53¢ graded price; raised 6-point bar met.
    • Live PBP: North Texas leads 3-0 with a 69-19 yardage edge and 15-9 play edge late in Q1.
    • Season-to-date: North Texas averages +0.27 EPA/play, 53.0% success and 3.28 points/drive versus Tulsa's +0.06, 43.8% and 1.93.
    • Only 1:02 remained in Q1 at the latest PBP snapshot; Tulsa has substantial time to erase a three-point deficit before halftime.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Justin Stevenson anytime touchdownLong shot
    +205%Won

    Taken at +205 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated win probability 36%; fair odds approximately +178 versus +205 market price.
    • Stevenson has 19 receptions, 281 yards and 1 touchdown through four 2026 games; he scored last week.
    • North Texas owns a 0.27 recent offensive EPA per play and 3.28 points per drive across the current-season window.
    • The 2026 sample is only four games; one touchdown does not establish a stable scoring rate.
  2. North Texas Mean Green–Tulsa Golden Hurricane over 55 total points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game sample: North Texas offense +0.27 EPA/play versus Tulsa defense -0.05 allowed, a +0.31 matchup gap.
    • Both offenses are pass-leaning: PROE +12.1% North Texas and +8.6% Tulsa, preserving explosive-play scoring paths.
    • Explosive rates are 16.7% and 10.1%; North Texas defense allows +0.20 EPA/play, giving Tulsa a route to contribute.
    • Tulsa’s 2026 PFF defense grades 83.3 overall and 81.0 in coverage, capable of suppressing North Texas.
  3. North Texas Mean Green 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last three games: North Texas averaged +0.36 offensive EPA/play, 56.5% success, and 18.6% explosive rate.
    • Tulsa's last-three offense averaged only +0.05 EPA/play, 43.6% success, and 1.91 points per drive.
    • Only three recent games drive the core comparison; opponent quality and early-season variance are substantial.
  4. North Texas Mean Green −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The margin clears the main -3 by 0.14 points; my margin-near-line cover estimate is 53%, not a simulation.
    • North Texas averages +0.27 offensive EPA/play, 53.0% success and 16.7% explosive rate through four games.
    • Tulsa's defense has allowed -0.04 EPA/play versus North Texas allowing +0.20, a meaningful matchup counterweight.
  5. North Texas Mean Green to win
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Texas averages +0.17 offensive EPA/play, 49.1% success and 14.9% explosive rate across its three FBS games.
    • Tulsa averages +0.02 offensive EPA/play, 42.0% success and 8.3% explosive rate across its three FBS games.
    • Personnel check: current preview identifies Tayven Jackson for North Texas; Pete Thamel's fresh X-signal says Baylor Hayes will start for Tulsa.
    • Hayes is returning from a knee sprain after missing two games; the X-signal carries 0.65 confidence and is not an official designation.
  6. Tulsa Golden Hurricane +1.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Texas leads season-to-date offense at 0.27 EPA/play, 53.0% success, and 3.28 points per drive.
    • Tulsa's defense is the better unit: -0.05 EPA/play allowed versus North Texas at +0.20.
    • Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24-10; North Texas lost to Indiana 52-16 and Texas State 49-35 against stronger tests.
    • North Texas has the clear explosive-offense edge: 0.17 rate versus Tulsa's 0.10.
  7. North Texas Mean Green over 3.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live full-game spread is North Texas -5; half-scaling gives +2.5 before the live-state update.
    • North Texas leads 3-0 at 1:02 of Q1; conservative live mean is about +3.5 at halftime after shrinking the early score.
    • 2,764 completed FBS games from 2023-25 give empirical margin SD 14.59; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.32, not 7.30.
    • The 3-point mass is the largest historical cluster, so a 3-point halftime margin loses despite the early lead.
  8. Tulsa Golden Hurricane moneyline +182
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Texas has allowed +0.20 defensive EPA/play through four games; Tulsa's offense has a plausible path against that vulnerability.
    • Tulsa's defense has allowed -0.05 EPA/play over four games, a matchup counter to North Texas' otherwise strong +0.27 offensive EPA/play.
    • Live state is only North Texas 3, Tulsa 0 with 3:06 left in the first quarter, leaving the home underdog a full-game comeback window.
    • North Texas' offense averaged +0.27 EPA/play and 48.5 points in its four prior games; one explosive stretch can end Tulsa's comeback path.

Questions

Who won North Texas vs. Tulsa?

North Texas won 45-44 on Thursday, Oct 1, 2026.

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