Liberty vs. DelawareFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelaware Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 6 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| DEL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLiberty Flames to win 73¢
Why Drift likes it: 2026 efficiency: Liberty +0.20 offensive EPA/play and -0.04 defensive EPA/play versus Delaware +0.03 and -0.02.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-3 on this game · +17% return
- Delaware Blue Hens to win−100%Lost
Taken at +225 on FanDuel
2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Resting MoneyWhy 2 models like it
CFB Moonshot Singles- Delaware predictor win probability is 34.8%, above the market’s roughly 30% home-moneyline baseline.
- Home venue and the model’s independent 35% estimate create a modest plus-price edge.
- Liberty owns the stronger recent offense EPA/play, 0.20 versus Delaware’s 0.03.
Resting Money- book_levels are Delaware 3 versus Liberty 3; two of three measures agree, with raw thin-side availability well above a few hundred dollars.
- This is venue self-reference only; no independent sharp reference or projection supports the position.
- Liberty Flames spread −7+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- opponent averages favor Liberty: +0.24 offensive EPA/play vs Delaware -0.04, and -0.02 defensive EPA allowed vs +0.14.
- Liberty's FBS-only success rate is 52.4% vs Delaware's 44.4%; explosive rate is 14.2% vs 8.5%.
- Delaware's starting-quarterback status remains unresolved; official Liberty material confirms Deshawn Purdie, but Delaware's last game used three passers after Nick Minicucci's injury concern.
Long Way Home- Common opponent: Liberty beat Coastal Carolina by 17; Delaware beat Coastal Carolina by 8.
- Four-game sample; Liberty's EPA was boosted by a 51-point Ball State performance.
- Liberty Flames to win+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 efficiency: Liberty +0.20 offensive EPA/play and -0.04 defensive EPA/play versus Delaware +0.03 and -0.02.
- Liberty leads success rate 50.0% to 45.0% and explosive rate 13.9% to 10.7%; Deshawn Purdie and Nick Minicucci are confirmed starters.
- ProphetX home/Delaware probability moved 29.4% open to 28.6% current, a 0.8-point move toward Liberty.
- Only four 2026 games support each efficiency sample; opponent quality and regression remain uncertain.
- Liberty vs. Delaware under 49.5 total+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Liberty Flames spread −6.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB margin histogram: 859 of 10,963 regular/postseason games landed exactly on 7 (7.8%); the -6.5 to -7 market gap is only 3.18 probability points.
- 2026 EPA through four games: Liberty offense +0.18/play versus Delaware +0.03; Liberty defense allowed -0.04/play versus Delaware -0.02.
- Pinnacle's reference spread is Delaware +7, corroborating a Liberty-centered projection near the key number.
- Liberty can win by 1-6, the direct loss path on -6.5; the 7-point mass is historical, not a guarantee tonight.
- Delaware Blue Hens spread +8−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels: Delaware 3 vs Liberty 3; tied, so the signal is the two-measure thin/deep pairing only.
- Directional check: backing Delaware +8, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Venue self-reference is the only reference used; no independent sharp reference is claimed.
- Book-level count is tied rather than corroborating Delaware, leaving only two of three measures supportive.
Questions
Who won Liberty vs. Delaware?
Liberty won 30-14 on Friday, Oct 2, 2026.